SK Telecom saw an acceleration in topline while underlying EBITDA came in 2% ahead. Encouragingly, mobile trends improved on better mix and rise in roaming users while Enterprise, a key focus area, expanded its contribution to near 10% of overall revenue. Focus on AI continues to hold back shareholder remuneration however we think.
South Korean operators delivered better service revenue growth, led by improvements in Broadband and Enterprise. As 5G penetration matures (70% in Q1), mobile still managed LSD growth. With improving capital intensity and steadily rising dividends, we remain constructive in this space, with KT remaining as our preferred pick
Topline came in better than expected, supported by a better mobile performance from higher roaming users well as sustained performance from SK Broadband. EBITDA was relatively in line while net profit beat on expectations this quarter (12% ahead), helped by other income from its investment assets. Our thoughts below.
SK Telecom has issued its new shareholder return policy for the next three years (2024-2026), at least 50% of adjusted consolidated net profit in the form of dividends and share repurchases. The headline figure is somewhat underwhelming, but is now a minimum rather than a cap and could be the first of more initiatives to come as a result of the "Value-up" programme in Korea. Our thoughts below.
We ran our Asia Telco tour last week. This time we met 12 companies in 3 countries (Korea, Japan, Thailand). Telco share prices in all 3 of these countries have been pretty strong recently as telcos continue to benefit from generally positive themes: growth, return on capital and shareholder remuneration are all typically improving.
South Korean operators were slower across the board at service revenue on softer Fixed growth, although mobile and Enterprise kept pace. Both LG and SKT saw an acceleration in Enterprise this quarter as the former opened a new DC in Q4. Both SKT and KT saw improvements in EBITDA while LG was pressured by higher labour costs.
SKT delivered better results today as topline growth accelerated off Enterprise and margins improved again. Shareholder remuneration continues to improve as the company also announced its final quarterly dividend at KRW 3,540 taking full year’s dividends to KRW 766bn, an increase of 5.8% from last year.
2023 saw Govt interference in industry pricing, competition and management offsetting good fundamentals. With elections in April this may continue near term. However, despite this the industry continues to grow cash flow, which should also continue, and taking a slightly longer perspective shows that KT and SKT (although not LG U-Plus) are still trending higher.
Aggregate service revenue were lifted by KT’s non-mobile performance this quarter, with strong EBITDA growth from both KT and LG owing to well controlled labour and service costs. Encouragingly too, 1H23 aggregate capex intensity was lower (12.6% vs. 13.5% last year) despite a focus on AI investments recently.
Today, South Korea's Ministry of Science and ICT ("MSIT") unveiled plans aimed at lowering the average household mobile spending, by encouraging lower mobile price plans and fostering greater mobile competition through 1) incentivising a fourth mobile operator, 2) promoting MVNO competitiveness through wholesale provisions and 3) raising the subsidy cap on Mobile Device Distribution Act from 15% to 30%
In this note we revisit and update our thesis that Enterprise in EM is following an S-Curve. Key new work shows that as a result, absolute incremental Enterprise revenue in China has doubled each year for the past 3 years. This is why overall Telco revenues have sharply accelerated. We show the other countries/ stocks where the early signs are of the same thing happening.
Overall service revenue growth trend was stable for South Korean telcos, up by 4% YoY. Decent Enterprise momentum and stable broadband growth helped offset the slowdown in mobile which was driven by a marginal ARPU decline. EBITDA growth improved, driven by lower advertising costs and lower labour costs compared to Q2.
SKT’s Q3 results came in as expected. Overall revenue growth slowed to 3.1% YoY, with MSR growth was better than peers. EBITDA grew 3.3% YoY on lower advertising cost and COGS which offset higher labour cost. SKT announced KRW 181bn in dividends again, similar to past two quarters. Dividend is expected to be 30-40% of EBITDA less Capex.
SKT’s Q1 22 results came in marginally better than expectations, and better than Q4 driven by Fixed and Other (Cloud). EBITDA trends were positive, driven by cost control and a stabilized marketing spend, the lowest since their 5G launch.
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