Year-End Rally to Continue? The broad equity market has been on an absolute tear since we discussed in our 10/31/23 Compass how risk/reward favored buyers as key supports were being tested, including 4165 on the S&P 500, $162-$163 on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $350 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Furthermore, we discussed in our 11/7/23 Compass our belief that this was more than just another counter-trend rally, and that it is likely the start of a significant year-end rally. We also reiterated our b...
Just Another Counter-Trend Rally, or Something More? We believe there is significant evidence that the broad equity market has bottomed, and a year-end rally has begun. In last week's Compass (10/31/23) we discussed how the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) did not display decisive breakdowns, and that a break above 4165-4200 and $350-$355, respectively, would be bullish, since that would indicate false breakdowns. False breakdowns are officially in place, and these levels remain important supports ...
S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Back at Support Our expectations since late September remain unchanged; equities are not yet out of the woods, but as long as the S&P 500 is above 4165-4200, most signs point to this being a normal pullback within the ongoing bullish trend in SPX. Similarly, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is testing support at $350-$355 (the 4-month bull flag/falling wedge pattern). The Russell 2000 is also approaching 1+ year support at 1640. Breakdowns would be our cue to get defensive, as it would ...
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