reports
- Simen Mortensen
Acquisitions and an equity issue
SBB acquired five properties in Denmark, KMC carried out a direct placement of NOK300m, Kungsleden announced a new rental contract and development project, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, while Skanska updated its climate target. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.30% for 2021e and 3.64% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
CMD, an upgrade, and events
This week, we upgraded Fabege to BUY following its first office letting in Flemingsberg, and we shifted coverage from Klövern (delisted due to merger) to Corem, for which we have a HOLD. SBB hosted a CMD, while Atrium Ljungberg hired a new CFO. Next week, DNB Markets is set to host real estate events. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.30 % for 2021e and 3.59 % for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
SBB Norden (Sell, TP: SEK31.00) - Ambition – and valuation– remain hig...
SBB Norden hosted a CMD on 10 September. The company now aims for a SEK300bn asset base by 2026e and raised its target for income from property development (projects) to SEK2.0bn–2.5bn p.a. SBB also intends to propose a DPS of SEK1.32 (12 instalments p.a.) for 2022e. With an EPRA NTA (NAV) value of 23% of its balance sheet as of Q2, asset write-ups (building equity) or issuance of new equity (or hybrid bonds) seem likely to be a key factor in reaching a SEK300bn portfolio. We have rolled forward...
- Simen Mortensen
Two updates, and house price data
This week, we raised our target price on Castellum after it acquired more Entra shares and issued its hybrid bond. Wrapping up Q2 results season, Aros Bostad’s POC-based net income was in line with our estimate. Magnolia Bostad will be delisted on 17 September. Finally, next week we host several real estate investor events. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.16% for 2021e and 3.43% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Last of Q2 reports, and transactions
KMC Properties and Hufvudstaden reported their Q2 results. Castellum bought an additional 11.75% of the shares in Entra after issuing a EUR1bn hybrid bond earlier this week. Atrium Ljungberg CFO Lindqvist is leaving with immediate effect, while Liia Nõu was appointed the new CEO of Pandox. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 2.98% for 2021e and 3.28% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Q2 results and other news
Kojamo was the only real estate company in the sector to report Q2 results this week. Entra refinanced a bond, but conducted a bond buyback and new bond issue. SBB Norden’s CEO Ilija Batljan bought 1m shares in the company, and a date was set for its CMD. Corem initiated a compulsory acquisition of minority shares in Klövern. Fabege announced a new land allocation in Hammarby Sjöstad. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.04% for 2021e and 3.13% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
A busy summer
Castellum launched a bid for Kungsleden, while Citycon and Olav Thon reported Q2 results. This week, Norwegian Property also announced the date for its delisting, and Norwegian house prices appear to be stabilising. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 2.96% for 2021e and 3.25% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Swedish housing prices, letting and other news
Wihlborgs announced a lease with the Human Rights Institute. NPRO continues to head towards a delisting. Swedish house price statistics for June were reported and Corem is moving towards a large-cap listing. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.04 % for 2021e and 3.33 % for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
SBB Norden (Sell, TP: SEK26.00) - Q2 earnings miss, but asset value ga...
Soft Q2 EBIT was reflected in YTD EPRA earnings EPS (FFO/share) of SEK0.40/share (down 7% YTD). However, SBB reported a SEK5.1bn (or c4.8%) value gain on its real estate assets QOQ, taking YOY gains to c14.4%, well above peers’. We reiterate our SEK26 target price (based on NAV (EPRA NTA)), and our SELL given the potential downside.
- Simen Mortensen
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Pre-announced figures, acquisitions and Q2 sector preview
This week Atrium Ljungberg pre-announced some Q2 figures, Castellum acquired two office buildings in Solna, we published our Q2 preview with Castellum, Nyfosa and Kungsleden as top picks, while Akelius is evaluating a large divestment that could prove one of the largest transactions this year. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.22 % for 2021e and 3.49 % for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Risk appetite and decoupled NAVs
Following the Nordic real estate sector’s outperformance in Q2, we find sector valuations stretched, given the risk of rising inflation expectations potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates, with a potential negative impact on yields. However, we reiterate our neutral sector view, as transactions and the credit market are showing signs of strength and tenant demand has held up fairly well with limited impact on market rents overall. We see strong risk appetite in the market, and be...
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
SBB Norden (Sell, TP: SEK26.00) - Another very active quarter
The extremely high transaction level continued in Q2 at full pace, with numerous large and estimate-moving deals. We have updated our forecasts based on the transaction details disclosed. Ahead of the results (due at 08:00 CET on 15 July), our Q2 forecasts are largely in line with Infront consensus. With fewer shares issued to mandatory convertible bondholders than expected, we have raised our NTA forecasts and our target price to SEK26 (23). However, we consider the stock and EV valuation too r...
- Simen Mortensen
Management changes; formalities and invitation; financing updates
This week saw a new CEO at Hufvudstaden and a new CFO at Citycon. Elsewhere, Balder formally acquired ABP and sent out seminar invites, while Corem surpassed 95% in Klovern, and Klovern applied for a delisting. Also this week, Balder and Citycon gave financing and rating updates, and Castellum invested SEK1bn in a project with the Port of Gothenburg. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.25% for 2021e and 3.52% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Transactions and other news
This week, SBB Norden sold its 14.9m shares in Entra (cNOK3,14bn) to Castellum, we downgraded Catena to HOLD, Swedish house prices showed a continued rally, SBB Norden and Solon Eiendom formalised deals, Kungsleden divested residential building rights, Amasten Fastigheter carried out an equity issue, and Entra invested in a new asset in Bergen. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.21% for 2021e and 3.48% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
Equity raise, stock acquisitions and capital market activity
Nyfosa has raised SEK750m in equity and has possibly +cSEK2bn of investment capacity to enter the Finnish real estate market near-term (in line with its updated strategy in April). SBB continues to acquire stock in listed companies as it purchased Obos’ 20% stake in JM. Catena has issued its first green bond and we see potential for the company to continue to trim its funding costs. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.17 % for 2021e and 3.43 % for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
A newly founded company and residential price update
Newly founded Aurora Property has acquired shopping centres in Norway worth NOK3bn and entered into an LOI to acquire one additional centre for NOK1.8bn. A group of high-profile local investors in the company, including Petter Stordalen, is evaluating a public listing by year-end. In other news, Catena’s zoning plan in Malmö has gained legal force, and Norwegian residential price data for May is out. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.25% for 2021e and 3.52% ...
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
End of Q1 and other news
KMC Properties rounded off Q1 reporting season for the Nordic real estate sector this week, and announced a new investment. In other news, JM hosted a CMD, and Citycon issued a new hybrid bond, with no fixed maturity. Klövern’s board as expected recommended shareholders accept Corem’s public offer. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.29% for 2021e and 3.57% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
- Simen Mortensen
More Q1 results and transactions
Earnings season dominated the news this week, with SBB Norden, Hufvudstaden, Citycon and MaxFastigheter releasing Q1 results. Balder also announced a NOK9bn investment in Norway. The weighted average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 3.39% for 2021e and 3.66% for 2022e.
HUFV A HUFVUDSTADEN AB CLASS A
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
WILC FABEGE AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
KLED KUNGSLEDEN AB
NPRO NORWEGIAN PROPERTY ASA
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
KLOV B KLOVERN AB CLASS B
NYF NYFOSA AB
SBBB SBB NORDEN
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