reports
- James Ratzer
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: The DoD’s Spectrum Game
This week we cover spectrum issues, with a particular focus on the implications of last week’s Department of Defense (DoD) report on the feasibility of sharing the 3.1 – 3.45GHz band with wireless carriers. Our New Street colleagues published a note describing the report and its implications for DISH/SATS, T, VZ, and TMUS.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DoD spectrum report released – implications for Dish, Verizon, AT&T, a...
The DoD released its report on the feasibility of sharing the 3.1 – 3.45GHz band with Wireless Carriers. The report concludes that sharing is feasible if certain conditions are met. It also makes clear that meeting the conditions will be challenging. The ability of carriers to share the band, and the timing of its availability have important implications for the value of Dish’s spectrum and for the businesses of the national carriers generally. We cover both in this brief report.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Broadband market growth slower in 1Q24
Broadband industry growth slowed in 4Q23. We wondered, exiting the quarter, whether growth would level off or slow further in 1Q24. Based on the data we have collected so far, it appears that growth has slowed further, and possibly quite materially. We suspect slower growth will impact all operators, although for fiber, it should be partly offset by footprint expansion.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Net Neutrality: It’s Back!
This week, we focus on the FCC’s upcoming Net Neutrality order, which is likely to be made public on Thursday and voted on April 25. The big picture is that the item will be approved on a 3-2 vote and largely resemble the 2015 order. As we have been in the past, we are skeptical that the rules will be material to the financial performance of the ISPs but there are a few interesting nuances to this iteration.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: FCC Dings Nexstar for Exceeding Ownership Limits but Real ...
Last week, the FCC ruled that Nexstar’s relationship with Mission Broadcasting’s WPIX in New York City violated its rules and the national broadcast ownership cap. In this note, we discuss how this decision reflects the priorities of the current FCC, but also broader themes related to the decline of linear television and upcoming changes to both the market and the video regulatory environment.
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
WBD WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: State of Play of BEAD
In 2024-25, one of the biggest events in the telecom sector will be how the federal government and states spend the $42.5 billion Congress appropriated for deployment to unserved and underserved locations as part of the BEAD program. In this Weekend Update, we provide a state of play on the program, including outlining the process going forward, the timing, the Fiber v. FWA debate, what has worked, what challenges lie ahead, the election impact (or lack thereof) and the quick take from the compa...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Fiber to the Future – Broadband Trends; Infrastructure Wars; New ILEC ...
We just wrapped up the second day of the BCG and NSR Fiber to the Future Conference. The second day featured discussions with over 30 companies including Altice USA, AT&T, BT Group, Charter, Dycom, Deutsche Telekom, Frontier, Goldman Sachs, Liberty Global, Lumen, Recon Analytics, Shentel, TDS Telecom, Tillman Global, Tucows, and Verizon.
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: ACP Increases Supporters, Not Odds
In this Weekend Update, we start by analyzing the latest DC machinations regarding the future, if any, of the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), including: - Why the over 500% increase in the number of co-sponsors for an ACP extension bill is not indicative of an increase in support; - How the March letters to ACP customers might provide some early indications of what will happen in May and June if funding expires; and - How the calvary of an ACP and USF reform bill is over the horizon but t...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Quick thoughts on FWA and broadband
T-Mobile mentioned at a competitor conference yesterday that FWA net adds in 1Q24 were coming in “right at” 400k. This is consistent with guidance they gave last quarter but a little worse than what most investors assumed. Adds were 541k in 4Q23, and most assumed they would glide towards 400k over the course of the year, starting well above (NSR 466k; consensus 451k).
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: Congressional Signals on ACP and Tax Bill
In this Weekend Update, we focus on the signs that Congress provided this past week on two issues that directly affect the finances of ISPs: the future of ACP and taxes. As to the ACP, we discuss how extension proponents apparently failed in efforts to include an ACP extension appropriation in the recently adopted short-term budget compromise. That should surprise no one but it indicates that an extension remains an uphill struggle. Still, that possibility remains on the table but there will be ...
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
APPL APPLE INC - APPL - US
- Jonathan Chaplin
US broadband quick take: a preliminary forecast for AT&T’s Internet Ai...
We have been late in publishing a formal forecast for AT&T’s FWA product (Internet Air). The Company has given us very little to go on, and so we have limited conviction in the forecast, at this stage. We assume Internet Air accelerates to a peak of 180k adds per quarter by late 2025. In this brief note we run through how we derived the forecast and update our forecast for total FWA subscribers.
- Jonathan Chaplin
ACP Part IV: Evolving thoughts on the impact on the broadband market
We conducted a survey of 1000+ ACP recipients and, while processing the (surprising) results, we realized that we had framed the issue poorly. ACP may be far more important to low-income households than we previously realized. We are in the process of running a new survey that will determine the risk to the carriers if ACP is terminated. This note, which is aimed more at policy makers than investors, focuses on the impact that subsidy programs in general have had on getting households connect...
- Jonathan Chaplin
Autumn for Broadband 4Q23
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. We will provide a further update when the stragglers have all reported in a couple of weeks (we have Frontier on Friday; model update note here). Industry net adds were weaker in 4Q23, while FWA accelerated. This drove the pressure we saw on Cable (changes in copper and fiber were immaterial).
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: ACP Odds Continue to Creep Up
In this telecom-focused update, we return to ACP’s fate, with odds still favoring funds running out despite several more signs this week suggesting support for an extension is growing. These efforts may be hampered by chaos stemming from a potential government shutdown when Congress returns, as well as a Trump “veto.”
- Blair Levin
NSR Policy: DOJ to Investigate Sports Streaming Combo
This week we are publishing weekend updates on telecom and media. In this media update, we follow-up on our analysis of the new joint venture creating a streaming app that would air a large amount of sports programming with our analysis of the news that the DOJ is going to investigate the joint venture on antitrust grounds. As we discuss, the informal report that DOJ will consider the antitrust implications is not a surprise and is likely designed in part to assist those involved in the investig...
TMUS T-MOBILE US INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
T AT&T INC.
SBGI SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP INC. CLASS A
NXST NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP INC. CLASS A
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
DISH DISH NETWORK CORPORATION CLASS A
DIS WALT DISNEY COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
FOX FOX CORPORATION CLASS B
- Philip Burnett
Quick Take: AT&T “Wins” FirstNet Contract Again
FirstNet and AT&T have announced that the carrier has won an investment of up to $8BN over the next 10 years in order to continue expanding FirstNet coverage and to deploy standalone 5G in the network ($6.3BN for ongoing investments; roughly $2BN for 1k additional sites). The announcement says the investment has no impact on AT&T’s guidance.
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
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