reports
- Blair Levin
T’s 4.9 Spectrum Win Faces Court Challenge
In October 2024, the FCC, without dissent, provided T a major spectrum win by providing the FirstNet Authority —and therefore as a practical matter, T-- 50MHz of spectrum in the 4.9 band. A coalition of various public safety and critical infrastructure enterprises, supported by VZ and TMUS, have challenged the FCC decision in court. Next Monday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit will hear arguments related to the challenge. In this note, we preview that argument.
- David Barden
SATS 3Q25 Quick Take: Key topics for the call will be taxes, towers, a...
Echostar’s subscriber results were better than expected but financial results were weaker. They announced the sale of their unpaired AWS-3 spectrum to SpaceX for $2.6BN in stock. We did not attach any material value to this spectrum, so the sale represents windfall upside for the stock. Investors are asking if we believe the impairment charge taken this quarter, partially allocated to spectrum, following the decision to shutter the facilities-based wireless business represents a reduction in the...
- David Barden
Autumn for Broadband 3Q25 – FWA ascendant, Cable struggling
We share here, in our latest Autumn for Broadband report, a quick update on broadband industry trends based on reported company results so far. Industry net adds have improved substantially from a year ago but remain below last year’s when adjusted for ACP impact. Net adds for the quarter were higher than the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive into FWA’s continued strong momentum by carrier.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 3Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T/T-Mobile US, AT&T show...
Verizon, T-Mobile US and AT&T all showed solid numbers over 3Q25. Despite strong competition, all three mobile telecom operators were able to grow revenue and EBITDA. Furthermore, we believe T-Mobile US might benefit from a credit rating upgrade at S&P, while we could see debt increase a bit at Verizon and AT&T because of debt-funded acquisitions. In our view, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US look the most attractive in this credit sub-space.
- David Barden
AT&T: It’s all about that ARPU, no treble
We address here 1) some of the conversations that emerged around postpaid phone ARPU growth and its relationship, or not, to price strategy, 2) the increased focus on volumes amongst the big 3, and 3) AT&T management’s comments about M&A. We’ve also updated our model for today’s results. Of course, we go deep and show our trend charts for key metrics to put the current quarter in context.
- David Barden
AT&T 3Q25 Quick Take: Volumes ahead, financials in-line, guidance reit...
AT&T reported 3Q results this morning. Postpaid phone net adds beat estimates handily but wireless service revenue was a little light due to lower ARPU. EBITDA was ahead of estimates and EPS was in line. The company reiterated all of its 2025 and long-term guidance. Based on these results, we think the stock will trade up slightly. Cable may be softer on AT&T’s stronger than expected FWA net adds.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for the Lone Star State
We have updated our BEAD analysis to include the proposal from Texas which was allocated the largest amount of BEAD funding. We now include BEAD proposals from 52 states & territories in our below analysis. We have also updated the analysis for states that have revised their proposals.
- David Barden
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Timothy Rahill
Euro debt markets in favour with tech firms in 2025/Foreign tech compa...
Euro-denominated issuance by TMT companies has been ahead of expectations in FY25. American companies issued far more Euro debt than expected. This is driven by attractive funding costs in Euro markets, because the risk premium required by investors for European credit markets is lower. Some of the large issuers of Euro-denominated debt are active in the technology sector. This was contrary to our earlier expectations because these companies fund their capital expenditures from cash flow. Finall...
- David Barden
3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive
If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.
- Blair Levin
Will Chinese Investment in SpaceX affect the FCC 2GHz review?
New reports indicate that SpaceX has previously undisclosed investments by Chinese investors. This has raised questions about whether those investments could affect the pending application by SpaceX to purchase the AWS4/2GHz band from SATS. In this note, we provide a legal and historic background for how investors should think about that question.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 3 More States
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.
- Blair Levin
SATS’ Spectrum Deals with T and now VZ: How Will the DOJ React?
SATS, already having announced deals to sell spectrum to T and SpaceX, is reportedly close to a deal to sell its AWS-3 band to VZ. We expect easy approval from the FCC but given the DOJ Antitrust Division’s comments recently about the risks of leaving “the market vulnerable to increased coordination among the remaining three carriers” how will it react to the new deals? In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for reviews of the spectrum sales to incumbent wireless carriers.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Another Major Update
We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar in Paris: Quick thoughts
Hamid and Charlie just wrapped in Paris. In this brief note we cover key topics, including the company’s thoughts on selling its spectrum, its plans for future uses of the spectrum proceeds, and its thinking on taxes and other liabilities. We also address the timing of future spectrum sales and the outlook for Boost, Hughes and DBS. Finally, we share insights on SpaceX’s new S-Band direct-to-device service.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Update for 7 more proposals
In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 39 states & territories. Comcast and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations has stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share increased slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Blair Levin
Implications of Carr’s SATS/SpaceX Competition Comments
FCC Chairman Carr gave a speech this week in which he said that the SATS/SpaceX deal “is a potential gamechanger for the American consumer—it promises to light up new spectrum and bring new sources of competition to the wireless and connectivity market.” In this note we review the evidence on whether he is likely to be proven correct but also what the implications of his comments are for wireless policy in the near-term.
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