reports
- David Barden
Takeaways from our 2026 Global Connectivity Leaders Conference
We wrapped up the US version of our 2026 Global Connectivity Leaders Conference in partnership with BCG. Our London conference wrapped up on Tuesday. We will be hosting a joint takeaways call next week, Tuesday, 3/31. Here are our key quick takeaways from the US conference.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q25 - Telecom Infrastructure: No capex growth in sight. Mobile ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Telecom capex was flat year-on-year in 4Q25 and operator guidance implies this trend will continue in 2026. The outlook for equipment vendors is in line with our expectations: mobile stable,...
- David Barden
AT&T Quick Hit: An understandably jittery market digests new wireless ...
AT&T’s widely rumored and reported new wireless pricing plans are now live. In this note, we compare AT&T’s new pricing with the old. We have spoken with the company and independent resources. We dispel some confusion among investors that AT&T has cut prices (they have not). We also compare AT&T’s new pricing to competitors to show their updated industry positioning. Long story short, its ok. This is not the start of a new price war…kind of the opposite.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Quick Hit: GFiber combines with Astound Broadband…who’s affected?
GFiber just announced it is combining with Astound Broadband. In this report we take a deep dive into the footprints of the two companies and analyze their overlap with the major Cable and Fiber operators. This new entity joins Brightspeed, Uniti, and Ziply in the pantheon of private fiber residential overbuilder/aggregators.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband cNPS comparisons by tech & operator - The latest data availa...
Scouring the data in this report, we’d point you to the appendix for a quick review. What stands out is that when a broadband customer interacts with a sales rep, presumably they are doing so with a problem or request that an automated or AI-driven IVR cannot address. Almost without fail, sales rep interactions are the Achilles heal of the market right now and likely a core reason, care scores suffer. The operator that can solve this puzzle, and it could be cable, has a window to shift their rel...
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
Broadband Spring 2026 – A fine time for FWA
In this Broadband Spring report, we share a quick update on broadband industry trends from 4Q25 heading into 2026E. Industry net adds improved meaningfully in 4Q25 from a year ago but remained slightly below last year when we adjust for the loss of ACP. Net adds for the quarter were in line with the pre-pandemic norm but trailing twelve-month net adds remain below pre-pandemic levels. We take a deep-dive here into FWA’s continued strong momentum, by carrier, and how it fits into the overall broa...
- David Barden
SATS: Raising PT to $147 on adjusted SpaceX assumptions and Echostar u...
We are updating our SATS valuation to reflect 1) an updated SpaceX valuation, and 2) updated SATS’ share of SpaceX following the merger between SpaceX and xAI. We now value SpaceX at $1.25Tn for the purpose of SATS valuation. In Elon we trust. We are raising our SATS price target to $147, up from $125 previously.
- David Barden
SATS 4Q25 Quick Take: It’s all about the call
SATS reported 4Q with a few surprises both positive and negative. On the plus side SlingTV losses were better than expected and wireless EBITDA loss was much better than expected. We will discuss more on the call, but Sling was likely a function of 4Q promo pricing and wireless was a function of not paying tower companies. The negative was that after several quarters of positive wireless net adds, SATS swung to a loss in 4Q, reflecting the competitive nature of the quarter. As always, the market...
- Blair Levin
C-Band Update: What Does the El Paso Airport Shutdown and Broadcaster ...
The El Paso Airport Shutdown does not on the surface reference FCC spectrum policy. But what happened is a tale of two agencies, that both rhymes with past conflicts between the FCC and FAA and raises questions about the wireless industry’s hope for access to the Upper C-Band. In this note, we address those questions and others raised by broadcasters seeking to limit the amount of spectrum that wireless can bid on in the upcoming C-Band auction.
- David Barden
- David Barden
Takeaways from Metro Connect 2026 Day One
Greetings from sunny, if chilly Fort Lauderdale where we are attending Metro Connect which one of our companies described as one of the two most important infrastructure conferences of the year. We are soooo lucky not to have gotten snowed in. If you are in the northeast, please stay warm! We just wrapped Day One where we had meetings and run-ins with many, primarily, small to mid-size private fiber operators. In this short note, we present our key takeaways from our conversations at the event.
- Blair Levin
What Policies Matter to Telco’s Success: Supply Side or Demand Side? ...
T CEO John Stankey recently said that “I’ve never seen federal policy this supportive of market-based investment in advanced networks.” That statement raises multiple interesting investor related questions about what does, and does not, support investment in advanced networks, including the relative importance of those policies that drive supply and those that drive demand, and how government is treating advanced networks versus networks that have lower cost structures but also involve lower pe...
- Blair Levin
T Threats Limited in Senate FirstNet Hearing; House Hearing This Week
In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
PEP PEPSICO INC.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
AMN AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
TNET TRINET GROUP INC.
T AT&T INC.
SM SM ENERGY COMPANY
RHI ROBERT HALF INTERNATIONAL INC.
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
NSP INSPERITY INC.
LAND GLADSTONE LAND CORP.
GIS GENERAL MILLS INC.
FLO FLOWERS FOODS INC.
EPC EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE CO.
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
CPA COPA HOLDINGS S.A. CLASS A
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CLX CLOROX COMPANY
CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CAG CONAGRA BRANDS INC.
BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
TMP TELEMEDYCYNA POLSKA
ARC AUSTRALIAN RURAL CAPITAL
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
KELYA KELLY SERVICES INC. CLASS A
KFRC KFORCE INC.
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
OPY OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
JBSS JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON INC.
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
ASGN ASGN INC
AX AXOS FINANCIAL INC.
RRBI RED RIVER BANCSHARES
CARE CARTER BANKSHARES INC
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.
AVBH AVIDBANK HLDGS INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
PKST PEAKSTONE REALTY TRUST
TOYO TOYO CO LTD
AEBI AEBI SCHMIDT HOLDING AG
SNDK SANDISK CORP
PBCO PBCO FINANCIAL CORP COM
- David Barden
T Quick Hit: AT&T closes Lumen fiber transaction
AT&T announced this morning that they have closed the Lumen fiber transaction. As part of this transaction, AT&T acquires over 4MM fiber locations and more than 1MM fiber customers in major markets. AT&T also acquires Lumen’s fiber build engine which should help accelerate fiber deployment. We published two comprehensive reports when the transaction was announced.
- David Barden
Not unexpectedly, SATS defaults on AMT leases – We quantify the readth...
AMT (Buy, PT $203), after the close today, shared that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. This was unsurprising following a similar revelation from CCI (Neutral, PT $93) on 1/12/26 (see our note). AMT says this action will have no impact on 2025 results. AMT did not mention the value of the remaining payments, but we assume it is similar to the ~$3.5bn (undiscounted) CCI cited.
- David Barden
AT&T: Only modest changes to estimates following 4Q results
Earlier today, we published our quick take on AT&T’s 4Q results and our note following the earnings call where we discussed some controversies heading into today’s results. This note focuses on the model update. Our subscriber estimate changes are modest. Revenue, EBITDA and FCF are slightly higher but within the guidance range. A full refresh reflecting the new reporting structure is forthcoming.
- David Barden
AT&T: That wasn’t such a scary start to US wireless results and guidan...
We shared our view of AT&T’s results this morning (note here). Results and guidance were solid. In this note following the earnings call and our multiple follow up conversations, we address key investor issues including 1) postpaid phone ARPU growth; 2) the pace of fiber deployment; 3) Internet Air net adds and ARPU growth; and 4) broadband ARPU growth. You see the trend, right? People care deeply about price and ARPU.
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