reports
- Blair Levin
T Threats Limited in Senate FirstNet Hearing; House Hearing This Week
In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
PEP PEPSICO INC.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
AMN AMN HEALTHCARE SERVICES INC.
VZ VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC.
TNET TRINET GROUP INC.
T AT&T INC.
SM SM ENERGY COMPANY
RHI ROBERT HALF INTERNATIONAL INC.
POST POST HOLDINGS INC.
NSP INSPERITY INC.
LAND GLADSTONE LAND CORP.
GIS GENERAL MILLS INC.
FLO FLOWERS FOODS INC.
EPC EDGEWELL PERSONAL CARE CO.
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION
CVX CHEVRON CORPORATION
CPA COPA HOLDINGS S.A. CLASS A
COG CABOT OIL & GAS CORPORATION
CLX CLOROX COMPANY
CL COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY
CHTR CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS INC. CLASS A
CHD CHURCH & DWIGHT CO. INC.
CAG CONAGRA BRANDS INC.
BEN FRANKLIN RESOURCES INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
TMP TELEMEDYCYNA POLSKA
ARC AUSTRALIAN RURAL CAPITAL
AAOI APPLIED OPTOELECTRONICS INC.
KELYA KELLY SERVICES INC. CLASS A
KFRC KFORCE INC.
LBRDA LIBERTY BROADBAND CORP. CLASS A
OPY OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
JBSS JOHN B. SANFILIPPO & SON INC.
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
ASGN ASGN INC
AX AXOS FINANCIAL INC.
RRBI RED RIVER BANCSHARES
CARE CARTER BANKSHARES INC
GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.
AVBH AVIDBANK HLDGS INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
PKST PEAKSTONE REALTY TRUST
TOYO TOYO CO LTD
AEBI AEBI SCHMIDT HOLDING AG
SNDK SANDISK CORP
PBCO PBCO FINANCIAL CORP COM
- David Barden
T Quick Hit: AT&T closes Lumen fiber transaction
AT&T announced this morning that they have closed the Lumen fiber transaction. As part of this transaction, AT&T acquires over 4MM fiber locations and more than 1MM fiber customers in major markets. AT&T also acquires Lumen’s fiber build engine which should help accelerate fiber deployment. We published two comprehensive reports when the transaction was announced.
- David Barden
Not unexpectedly, SATS defaults on AMT leases – We quantify the readth...
AMT (Buy, PT $203), after the close today, shared that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. This was unsurprising following a similar revelation from CCI (Neutral, PT $93) on 1/12/26 (see our note). AMT says this action will have no impact on 2025 results. AMT did not mention the value of the remaining payments, but we assume it is similar to the ~$3.5bn (undiscounted) CCI cited.
- David Barden
AT&T: Only modest changes to estimates following 4Q results
Earlier today, we published our quick take on AT&T’s 4Q results and our note following the earnings call where we discussed some controversies heading into today’s results. This note focuses on the model update. Our subscriber estimate changes are modest. Revenue, EBITDA and FCF are slightly higher but within the guidance range. A full refresh reflecting the new reporting structure is forthcoming.
- David Barden
AT&T: That wasn’t such a scary start to US wireless results and guidan...
We shared our view of AT&T’s results this morning (note here). Results and guidance were solid. In this note following the earnings call and our multiple follow up conversations, we address key investor issues including 1) postpaid phone ARPU growth; 2) the pace of fiber deployment; 3) Internet Air net adds and ARPU growth; and 4) broadband ARPU growth. You see the trend, right? People care deeply about price and ARPU.
- David Barden
AT&T 4Q25 Quick Take: A reassuring start to 4Q results and initial ‘26...
AT&T reported 4Q results and guidance this morning which largely met or topped expectations. Given the concerns about interior industry competitive dynamics (ok, price war fears), the fact that ARPU and net adds and ‘26 guidance are all pretty much where they should be is a healthy place to start 4Q results season.
- David Barden
Wireless: Key controversies heading into US wireless 4Q25 results and ...
We can’t remember a time when investors were as nervous about wireless earnings as they are going into 4Q25 results. We think this concern is by and large overblown and we will all come out feeling consoled on the other side of this earnings cycle. In this short note, we discuss the key controversies impacting the wireless sector currently and our perspective.
- Blair Levin
What’s at Stake for T (and VZ and TMUS) in the Upcoming FirstNet Autho...
Tomorrow, weather permitting, the Senate Commerce Committee will hold a hearing on the FirstNet Authority (FNA). Generally, we don’t write about Congressional hearings as they focus on sound bites rather than policy relevant to investors. Here, however, the hearing could prove market relevant. FNA has a contract with T, but Congress must act if the FNA is to be reauthorized past 2027. And the battle over the terms of that reauthorization pits T v. VZ and TMUS. In this note we provide backg...
- David Barden
The future of US wireless, right now - Extrapolating 3Q25 wireless tre...
We are taking 3Q25 results and the most recent cNPS data and laying out our latest thinking and forecasts ahead of 4Q results. We expect 4Q results and attendant 2026 guidance to contain material information value for investors and we wanted to share our latest forecasts, data, and trends as a starting point as we navigate this impactful season.
- David Barden
- Vikash Harlalka
A deeper dive on 'terminal' broadband market share
We recently published our Future of Broadband report where we predicted Cable’s broadband market share will continue to fall for the foreseeable future. We got the question, 'what is cable market share looking like in the most mature fiber markets, is it asymptoting?'. The answer is no. In this report, we use data from our Opensignal partnership to show that Cable’s subscriber market share has continued to fall in markets where they compete against only one fiber provider over a multi-year perio...
- Blair Levin
Supreme Court Takes FCC Cases; Potential Investor Impacts
The Supreme Court is reviewing two combined cases, one involving T and the other VZ, that question the constitutionality of the way the FCC enforces its rules. In this note, we describe the cases and how the outcome may affect investments in the sector.
- David Barden
SATS defaults on CCI leases - Quantifying the readthrough
CCI (Neutral, PT $93) after the close today announced that SATS has defaulted on its tower lease agreement payments. As a result, the company has terminated the agreement and will seek to recover ~$3.5Bn+ of the remaining undiscounted payments owed. CCI says this decision will have no impact on 2025 results. As a function of this announcement, we are taking SATS payments fully out of our model for 2026E. Previously, we had zeroed out SATS payments for only 2H26 and beyond. In this note, we shar...
- Blair Levin
Part Three of Year in Preview: Our Analysis about Policyband’s Predict...
This week we published three notes that preview what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment. In the first, we evaluated what questions do we not know the answer to today but will in a year that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In the second, we looked at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out. In this third one we evaluate nine predictions mad...
- Blair Levin
Part Two of Year in Preview: What about SATS, BEAD, Spectrum, and Othe...
This week we are publishing three notes that analyze what we think will be critical to investors in telecom/media/tech policy environment in the year ahead. In the first one, published yesterday we evaluated questions that we do not know the answer to today--but will in a year--that will have a material impact on stocks and depend in part on policy. In this second one, we look at the biggest policy related investment stories of 2025 and how the lingering elements of those stories will play out i...
- David Barden
Towers 4Q25 Estimates & Ratings Refresh
The last 3 months have seen substantial tower price dislocation catalyzed by news that SATS intends to invoke contractual clauses and stop paying the tower industry for current leases. We highlight some key industry developments impacting sentiment and preview 4Q results based on our catch-up conversations with the companies in recent weeks.
- David Barden
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Telecom: Growth in fixed & semis; mobile stabilizing
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 11% YoY. RAN revenues declined 1% YoY, reflecting the ongoing weak demand following the 5G cycle. Telecom semis ...
- David Barden
SATS: SpaceX, the final frontier
We are revising our SATS valuation analysis to reflect 1) reports that SpaceX is pursuing a new secondary equity round seeking a valuation between $750-800bn vs. SATS’ $400bn buy-in as compensation for recent spectrum sales, and 2) rising concerns that upper C-Band spectrum deployments may get bogged down in airplane altimeter interference issues, placing a growing premium on today’s commercially available spectrum, specifically the AWS-3. We are raising our SATS price objective to $125 from $10...
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