reports
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
Translating Carr on SATS
Yesterday, at the post FCC open meeting press conference, Chairman Carr made some comments about the situation with SATS. In this note, we report on the comments as well as providing a translation, as the words on their face do not indicate where he thinks the process is heading but they do, if interpreted properly, indicate where he would like it to go. In addition, we tie Carr’s comment to the Bloomberg report that Ergen is seeking a 30-day reprieve from creditors.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 1Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T and IBM/Most value in 4-y...
The three largest mobile telecom operators in the USA - Verizon, T-Mobile USA, and AT&T - continue to perform well. IBM's performance also looks solid. Notable was the strong EBITDA performance for all three mobile telecom operators. We think the notes with a duration of c.4 years look attractive on a spread basis, while the steepness of the spread curve looks healthy. Furthermore, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US with a somewhat longer duration look attractive.
- Blair Levin
As SATS Chapter 11 Clock Clicks Down, Does FCC Need to Act?
On May 30th, SATS declined to make an $326 million interest payment. Given the automatic 30-day grace period, that means SATS must either make the payment by June 30th or it goes into default. Per President’s Trump’s instructions, Chairman Carr is supposed to be negotiating with Charlie Ergen to see if there is a path to avoid bankruptcy. In this note we discuss what we know and cannot know about those negotiations.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Blair Levin
Trump Mobile: Just Another MVNO or Game Changer?
As we noted Friday, the Trump Organization is entering the mobile services market. Our New Street colleagues have published a note comparing the Trump offering to other wireless services. In this policy focused note we discuss the potential relationship with the SATS proceedings, the potential conflicts of interests, the track record of such Trump consumer offerings, the potential conflicts of interests, and how regulation could shape MVNO and wireless markets.
- Blair Levin
SATS v. Carr State of (the) Play: Curtain Raises on Act II
Last Friday, Bloomberg reported on a meeting at the White House between the President, FCC Chair Carr and EchoStar Chair Charlie Ergen. We provided quick thoughts on the implications of the meeting Friday afternoon. In this note we update our overall analysis on where the conflicts between Carr and SATS stands and how we think those issues will play out post the Presidential involvement.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Trump intervenes; Ergen files for extensions
Two pieces of news broke just in time for you to ponder over cocktails. First, Bloomberg reported that Trump met with Ergen and Carr at the White House yesterday, urging them to make a deal. Second, EchoStar filed “prophylactically” for license extensions, in the event that the V-Tel petition is granted. Some musings, but not much substance in this note.
- Blair Levin
SATS Update: POTUS, Ergen and Carr and More
Just as we were getting ready for the weekend, three data points came across our screen involving SATS, including one about a meeting between President Trump, Ergen, and Carr. In this note, we provide a quick summary of the data point and our quick response.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25: Telecom Infrastructure – Mobile stabilizes off the lows, ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Philip Burnett
Chapter 11 and Spectrum Values – Questions We Didn’t Get To
We hosted a call on Monday that covered our analysis of the impact of the FCC inquiries on spectrum values, and how this could change if the Company files for Chapter 11 protection. We hosted the call with Jeff Carlisle who is perhaps the leading expert on matters that sit at the intersection of telecom policy and bankruptcy. We got more questions than we could answer in the time we had, and so we covered the questions we didn’t get to in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DBS also misses interest payment
Today EchoStar filed an 8-K announcing that they would not make a scheduled interest payment on DBS secured and unsecured bonds. As with the skipped interest payment at EchoStar, this triggers a 30-day grace period after which DBS will be in default. A default at DBS would also trigger a default at Dish Network Corp., based on cross-default protections in Dish Network Corp. bonds. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
- Blair Levin
Of SATS, the FCC and NextWave
Since Friday’s announcement that SATS is not making an interest payment, triggering a 30-day period that could lead to a SATS voluntary Chapter 11 proceeding, we have been in numerous talks with investors about the most notorious bankruptcy case involving the FCC and a telecom company, NextWave. In this note we quickly summarize the key lessons of that case for investors analyzing the potential implications of a SATS bankruptcy proceeding.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Certified More Licenses
Over the past week, EchoStar has filed numerous new buildout reports at the FCC, increasing the number of licenses that will be preserved if the buildout deadline reverts to June 2025. In this brief note, we analyze the reports to determine the amount of additional license value that has been protected, and the value still at risk.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar Defaulting on Interest Payment
EchoStar released an 8-K this morning stating that it has elected not to make an interest payment due today. They have a 30-day grace period before this becomes an event of default. They hope to get relief from the FCC in that time. Our quick thoughts in this very brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: what exactly are they buying from Lumen
This report leverages Broadband Insights to explore the markets where AT&T is buying fiber, including market demographics, the future upgrade opportunity, Cable companies at risk, and overbuilders at risk. We also distinguish the infrastructure that AT&T is buying in these markets from what they lease under IRUs and what they wholesale. Finally, we show our forecast for customers and penetration.
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