reports
- Vikash Harlalka
Autumn for Broadband 2Q25
In this installment of our Autumn for Broadband series, we provide a quick update on trends in the broadband market based on what we have seen from the companies that have reported so far. Net adds remained nearly flat compared to a year ago (when adjusted for ACP impact) but were within the pre-pandemic norm. Industry subscriber trends have mostly stabilized over the past 3 quarters, but y/y growth remains below pre-pandemic levels.
- Vikash Harlalka
Comcast Post-2Q25 Model Update
In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results (here) and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are slightly lower broadband losses and higher FCF in 2025. No change to thesis. Price target is $37 (+12%).
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Thoughts following the 2Q25 call
In this note we provide our thoughts on connectivity revenue and EBITDA, the changes in pricing strategy, broadband ARPU growth and wireless net adds in back half of the year, fiber overbuilds, savings from tax reforms and usage of the proceeds. Finally, we touch on what to do with the stock.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T Model Update
We have updated the model following results. Changes to the segments are not material, but changes to capex, cash taxes and free cash flow in light of the OBBBA are. For thoughts following the call, click here. For a review of results, click here. (Rating: Buy; TP: $32; Total Return: +20%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T quick thoughts following the call 2Q25
In this note we cover evolving thoughts on the implications of the new Cable MVNO, the implications of AT&T’s revised capital allocation decisions, new insights on the pace of fiber deployment, a shift in the FWA strategy, the implications of both for cable, comments on spectrum purchases, the implications for EchoStar, and an early take on mobile and broadband market growth.
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T 2Q25 Quick Take: Results strong; FCF guide increased, but less th...
Postpaid phone adds beat estimates, which will come as a relief following Verizon’s results. Service revenue, EBITDA, EPS, and FCF were all slightly better than expected. The Company increased FCF guidance following OBBBA, but by less than some had hoped. In addition, the Company did not commit to increasing share repurchases with the increased FCF.
- Jonathan Chaplin
New Cable MVNO – implications for Cable and Mobile operators
Charter and Comcast announced that they have signed an MVNO with T-Mobile that will target new business customers (here). In this quick note we provide thoughts on implications for Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter, Comcast, and the industry more broadly.
- Blair Levin
Media Consolidation: Will FOX (Like CMSCA and DIS) Be in a Trump Trans...
As the Skydance/Paramount deal has demonstrated, the Trump FCC will address media transactions through a political lens. In this note, we discuss the implications for the sector of FOX potentially finding itself in the same position as CSMCA and DIS when it comes to the upcoming media consolidation, as well as other implications of the Colbert Affair and the federal defunding of PBS.
- Jonathan Chaplin
There is more Cable and Fiber M&A coming
This report provides a detailed update to our fiber forecast, with implications for the Fiber and Cable operators. The analysis suggests a strong incentive for Mobile and Cable operators to continue to consolidate assets. The analysis leverages the latest release of FCC data coupled with new features and data sets that have been built into Broadband Insights.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
DOJ on spectrum and fourth carrier
The DOJ made some surprising comments on the importance of a fourth carrier and the dangers of the three national carriers acquiring more spectrum in its decision on USM (decision here). Please see Blair’s note for the definitive view on regulatory implications. We provide some quick thoughts on implications for Wireless Carriers and Cable in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act
We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA quick hit: Comcast continues to make the right pricing moves
After launching 5-year price guarantee plans in April, Comcast has now announced some tweaks to plans that are discounted for one year, and to rack rates. These announcements are less meaningful than the 5-year plans, though they continue to inch gradually in the right direction. Our quick thoughts in this brief note.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
TMT 1Q25 results: Verizon, T-Mobile US, AT&T and IBM/Most value in 4-y...
The three largest mobile telecom operators in the USA - Verizon, T-Mobile USA, and AT&T - continue to perform well. IBM's performance also looks solid. Notable was the strong EBITDA performance for all three mobile telecom operators. We think the notes with a duration of c.4 years look attractive on a spread basis, while the steepness of the spread curve looks healthy. Furthermore, the Euro notes of T-Mobile US with a somewhat longer duration look attractive.
- Blair Levin
Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options
Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 1Q25: Telecom Infrastructure – Mobile stabilizes off the lows, ...
Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and PCs. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, rising 9% YoY. RAN spending is stabilizing, up l...
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Philip Burnett
Chapter 11 and Spectrum Values – Questions We Didn’t Get To
We hosted a call on Monday that covered our analysis of the impact of the FCC inquiries on spectrum values, and how this could change if the Company files for Chapter 11 protection. We hosted the call with Jeff Carlisle who is perhaps the leading expert on matters that sit at the intersection of telecom policy and bankruptcy. We got more questions than we could answer in the time we had, and so we covered the questions we didn’t get to in this note.
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