3Q25 Broadband Estimate Deep Dive

If you are one of those eager contrarians looking for the quarter where a combination of discount valuations and even a modest turnaround in cable KPI trends could boost the stocks, this probably ain’t it. The cable industry continues to lose subscribers at an elevated pace with Comcast doing worse than Charter thanks to the 1-2 punch of fiber and FWA.

Moody's Ratings corrects its website display for certain notes issued ...

Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has corrected the display on its websites for Comcast Corporation's Guaranteed Senior Notes due 2047, 2049 and 2052 (CUSIPs 20030NCC3, 20030NCE9 and 20030NCG4) to reflect these notes are senior unsecured. Due to an internal administrative error, an incorrect seniority was d...

BEAD: Update for 3 More States

In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 51 states & territories. We have updated our analysis for Alaska, Florida and Utah. Comcast, Brightspeed and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber remains the dominant technology both in terms of locations as well as funding.

SATS’ Spectrum Deals with T and now VZ: How Will the DOJ React?

SATS, already having announced deals to sell spectrum to T and SpaceX, is reportedly close to a deal to sell its AWS-3 band to VZ. We expect easy approval from the FCC but given the DOJ Antitrust Division’s comments recently about the risks of leaving “the market vulnerable to increased coordination among the remaining three carriers” how will it react to the new deals? In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for reviews of the spectrum sales to incumbent wireless carriers.

BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding

Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.

Cable’s win share among movers

There has been an ongoing debate among investors whether low moves actually hurt the Cable companies. Until now, it wasn’t possible to answer this question due to lack of data. We now have data from Opensignal that helps us answer this question. In this report, we show that the large Cable operators have been winning more than 50% share among movers who are new to their footprint. The win share has declined over time, especially as competitive intensity has increased. Cable operators can reduce ...

BEAD: Another Major Update

We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.

CMCSA Quick Hit: Versant Spin Accretive to Comcast Valuation

Comcast filed Form 10 for Versant late last week. Versant includes most of Comcast’s cable networks and some digital media assets. In this short note, we analyze the financials of Versant, the impact of the spin-off on Comcast’s growth, valuation of Versant, and the potential upside to Comcast’s stock following the spin-off.

Comcast Pre-3Q25 Model Update

We updated our model for recent management commentary at investor conferences. Our estimate for 3Q broadband losses is unchanged and isn’t materially different than consensus. We lowered Connectivity EBITDA slightly. No change to thesis. Our price target is $36 (+14%).

Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator

We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.

BEAD: Update for 7 more proposals

In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 39 states & territories. Comcast and AT&T remain at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations has stabilized with small share shifts in either direction with each update (fiber’s share increased slightly after this update). Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 09/11/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS – 11/09/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 09/11/2025

ODDO BHF SECURITIES LARGE CAPS MORNING NEWS 11/09/2025

ODDO : Overview of Q2 2025 performances in Switzerland: we still prefe...

ODDO : Recap du T2 2025 en Suisse, notre préférence continue pour Sunr...

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Amprion, TVO, Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile U...

Utilities - Appolo and RWE to form a joint venture to finance Amprion. TVO issues the first nuclear green bond

BEAD: Funding wins and investments by operator

In this note on BEAD, we summarize the funding wins so far for each operator along with the matching investment they are expected to make based on the cost estimates of each state. Based on the state estimates, they are contributing 63% of the estimated build costs and the operators are expected to invest 37% of the cost. The share of investments needed varies depending on the operator, and in some cases may be lower than estimated.

Bible 2Q25 – Telecom Infrastructure: Fixed and semis recover; mobile s...

Today, we are publishing the Telecom Infrastructure section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Hyperscale & Cloud, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry and Semicap Equipment. Fixed equipment revenues are rebounding from the inventory correction, ...