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Q1 above consensus Could see positive revisions to cons after Q1 Conference call today at 10:00CET
Another quarter with good production We are ~26% above cons on Q1 revenues Discounts oil at ~USD 50/bbl
Thameen-1 results right around the corner Good RRR is key long term Discounts oil at USD 47/bbl
Q4 numbers much in line with expectations Another year with RRR > 100% Proposed DPS of SEK 4 implies 6.9% dividend yield
Estimates up on strong Q4 production, ’21e oil price Exploration well currently drilling Discounts oil price of USD 50/bbl
Good Q3 numbers, positive estimate revisions Interesting exploration one month away USD 39/bbl discounted
Q3 EBITDA of USD 9.5m, beat vs. cons at USD 6.5m Soft FCF due to USD 12.3m WC binding Presentation at 10:00CET
Q3 production of 10.7k boe/d, ~15% above quota Exploration well right around the corner Discounts oil at USD 42/bbl
Limited estimate revisions after Q2 Exploration on top of the agenda An oil price of USD ~44/discounted
Q2 in line with expectations No new financial guidance, exploration in focus Conference call at 10:00CET
Higher oil price estimates for ’20-‘21 Room for more OPEC+ production in ’21? USD 42/bbl appears to be discounted oil price for Tethys
Q1 in line, no material revisions Progressing on organic opportunities SEK 23/sh of net cash, USD ~40/bbl discounted
Q1 numbers spot on SEK 23/sh in net cash Conf. call at 10:00CET
20% production cut in ’20e on OPEC+ limitations Financial guidance suspended USD 35/bbl appears discounted
Reiterate production guidance New capex guidance of USD 50-64m (64-71) Lowers DPS’20 to SEK 5 (8)
Massive estimate revisions on oil price Robust balance sheet, but EO dividend at risk Could open a window for opportunistic M&A
NAV up SEK 3/sh on higher reserves base More front-end loaded capex & production 11% dividend yield for ’20e
Q4 numbers marginally softer Positive RRR and aggressive ’20 guidance Total DPS of SEK 8 = 11% dividend yield
Company reports all historical costs have been recovered 48% WI in Q4’19 vs. previous level of 52% NAV from SEK 100/sh to SEK 91/sh
13% y-o-y production growth ‘20e ABGSCe capex at ~50m, production 12-13kboe/d MtM NAV of SEK 93, of which SEK 34/sh cash
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