We forecast a fairly solid Q1 (results due at 07:30 CET on 17 April), with stabilised churn from the elevated levels in Q4. We expect a slight slowdown of YOY MSR growth versus Q4 and solid 10% organic growth for the international software business. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to EUR47 (45).
When the news of the Trump tariffs first hit the tapes, we didn’t write anything initially as a) we didn’t think we had much of value to add to the thousands of column inches already written on the topic, and b) the direct impact from the tariffs to the EU telecoms sector is minimal – resulting in relative outperformance for the group over the past few days.
Vodafone’s lock-up in India expires at the end of this month. Given the news today on a debt-for-equity swap involving the Indian Government at Vodafone Idea, we explore the implications of this and whether there could be a surprise value crystallisation for Vodafone on the cards.
Avantium: Management team change. Belgian telcos: Extra data on Proximus brand mobile plans at no additional cost. Elia: Launch of €1.35bn rights issue and closing of €850m private placement. Randstad: Preliminary preview of 1Q25F results due 23 April. Shell plc: Very solid CMD, attractive outlook for shareholders. Tessenderlo: 2024 in-line with lowered outlook, soft 2025F guidance
Our two-day 9th virtual TMT Forum was attended by 32 listed companies and 292 investors. The trends in media seem to point to a correct start to the year. Telecom players are optimistic on the regulatory front (intra-market consolidation). Software & IT services and semis continue to see mixed trends, apart from in AI and some hopes that a few companies will benefit from the rise of defence spending. In terms of companies, the main positive messages came from Auto1, CMCOM, Indra, Infineon, Telec...
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