2025 was a very strong year for African Telcos, as macro stabilized and pricing recovered across the continent but especially in Nigeria. We think 2026 should be more of the same as stocks re-rate due to strength in the core coupled with exposure to digital. Very strong performance by Airtel Africa means Vodacom becomes our top pick in Africa, and VEON our top pick overall.
2025 was when the EM Telco bull market really took off. Two of our top picks returned >100% and four more 50%+. We make one change to our top picks for 2026 from 2025, introducing Megacable in exchange for IHS Towers. In a separate note out today we run through the Themes that we think will drive performance in 2026.
EM Telcos have been strong for some time, but 2025 was a banner year. Multiples have expanded somewhat, but we remain bullish, as we think EM Telcos operate on a long cycle driven by market structure which has now definitively turned up We therefore see EM Telcos in a true stealth bull market as conditions still seem ripe for the best to exhibit pricing power and hence GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC. This note explains the key themes we see for 2026.
2025 was a banner year for EM Telcos, following on from a good 2023 and 2024. As we head towards the New Year we thought it might be useful to highlight a few of the thematic pieces we wrote last year that we think help to highlight why EM Telcos are in a clear and sustained bull market and why therefore we are confident that 2026 will be another good year for investors in the space, as fundamentals continue to look much stronger than in the past. I hope you enjoy reading these and happy holiday...
EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.
Over the past 3 years, the EU telecoms sector has had a great run – up >50%, despite modest underlying revenue/ EBITDA growth. This has almost entirely come from a deserved upwards re-rating in the multiple as the risk profile across the sector diminishes – which has been a key theme of ours in the past few years given improved regulation. So, we feel this has now largely played out.
Belgian Telecoms: DIGI Belgium CEO Interview: ‘We are running a marathon, not a sprint' IBA: IBA to install a Rhodotron in East China. Ontex: Another quarter, another profit warning. Theon International: Backlog visibility indeed. Xior: 2026 outlook positive but with no major surprise. Events Calendar
We hosted a virtual call with Vodacom CEO, Shameel Joosub, and Head of IR, JP Davids on Monday last week. In tone and content, the call was positive in our view, and we found the discussion on price floors very encouraging. Thoughts and feedback below. Thoughts and feedback below.
Vodafone and Vodacom have announced today that they will be taking control of Safaricom. Given the structure of the deal with Kenyan Government involving pre-paying dividends, we think the deal could offer better than expected accretion to Vodafone’s reported FCF for limited capital outflow.
EM Telco earnings season was extremely strong, and with 8 of our 10 picks reporting this month, our picks rose 6.8% on average in November and are now up 80% YTD. With Singtel having strongly outperformed, Bharti we swap the latter in for the former; this note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
Adecco: Introduces the agility advantage to grow, adapt and lead in the intelligent era. Belgian telcos: DAZN announces immediatele end for Belgian football broadcasting. CMB.TECH: Good 3Q thanks to its tankers. D'Ieteren: CFO buys more shares, State Farm seeks 6% California Auto Rate cut. Staffing: Belgium October Temp volume stable at -3.4% YoY despite tougher comps.
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