reports
- Marcus Develius
Addtech (Hold, TP: SEK295.00) - Consistent performance
We forecast Q4 sales of SEK5.6bn, with 4% organic growth YOY and EBITA of SEK838m, c2% below Infront consensus. We have updated our FX assumptions, made minor divisional estimate changes, and trimmed our 2026/27e EBITA by 1% amid an increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment. Thus, we have cut our target price to SEK295 (310) but reiterate our HOLD.
- Marcus Develius
Addtech (Hold, TP: SEK310.00) - Continually improving
Sales growth was 11% YOY (consensus 9%) in Q3, with a 4% beat versus consensus on EBITA and 2% on EPS. The solid EBITA was driven by a strong Energy segment, with the group EBITA margin up 80%-points YOY to 14.4%, above our estimate of 14.0%. We have raised our 2025/26e and 2026/27e EBITA by 2% and our target price to SEK310 (300), while we reiterate our HOLD.
- Marcus Develius
Addtech (Hold, TP: SEK300.00) - Growth set to keep compounding
We forecast c2% organic growth YOY for Q3 and expect an uptick for 2025/26e, driven by an easing investment climate for new projects with lower interest rates. Following a change of analyst, we have made minor divisional estimate changes and trimmed our EBITA for 2025/26e by 2% and for 2026/27e by 1%. We have downgraded Addtech to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK300 (365) to align with historical multiples.
- Johan Skoglund
Addtech (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - From strength to strength
Addtech showed an impressive performance in Q1, with YOY organic growth (while consensus was for a contraction), adj. EBITA margin expansion of 170bp YOY, driven by broad-based gains and accretive M&A, and solid FCF generation. We have raised our 2024/25–2025/26e EBITA by 7%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK365 (275).
- Johan Skoglund
Addtech - Initiation of coverage - Top-quality M&A compounder
With a 2001/02–2023/24 EPS CAGR of 18%, a 10-year average ROE of 27%, and exposure to attractive end-markets (electrification, energy, and green technology), we believe a premium valuation is warranted for this diversified industrials group focused on acquiring niche B2B companies with a goal (and track record) of doubling EBITA every five years. We initiate coverage with a BUY and SEK275 target price.
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