Solid May sales

The power of M&A compounding: Part II

A first look at EU5

Stillfront Group (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Recommendation and target price w...

Due to Carnegie (DNB)’s role as financial advisor to the board and management in Stillfront’s strategic review announced today, we have withdrawn our recommendation (BUY) and target price (SEK12).

Solid April, strong outlook

EU5 will be announced on 8 May

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK130.00) - Encouraging organic growth trend

MTG’s 2025 organic growth outlook of 3–7% YOY was a key positive in an otherwise difficult market for mobile gaming, in our view. However, the adj. EBITDA margin guidance of 21–24% fell shy of our expectation. We have only finetuned our 2025–2026e sales, but cut adj. EBITDA by 18–7% on the margin outlook, with some upside potential if synergies from the Plarium acquisition should materialise in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK130 (140).

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - More releases ahead

We reiterate our BUY and SEK240 target price, having fine-tuned our forecast after the soft Q1 revenue due to few new releases. Looking ahead, we expect revenue and earnings growth to improve from new releases, and coupled with a more stable capex profile, we see healthy FCF growth for 2025e. Additionally, we believe Paradox is well positioned for rising shareholder distributions and more bolt-on M&A.

Earnings gain speed, valuation stuck in reverse

Minor miss, but overall solid, in a small quarter

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK140.00) - First quarter including Plarium

Q1 will be the first quarter including the transformative Plarium acquisition (consolidated from 1 February), set to roughly double MTG’s revenue and adj. EBITDA. Our impression is organic growth trends have held up alright in Q1; however, the recent strengthening of the SEK has prompted a ~9% cut to our 2025–2026e revenue and EBITDA. We have lowered our target price to SEK140 (150) but reiterate our BUY.

Valuation now back at 5Y lows

Strong March, but some downside to cons

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Sharp FX headwinds

We have lowered our 2025–2026e revenues by 10–12%, mainly reflecting the strong SEK. Our organic revenue growth assumptions are broadly unchanged, and the DLC bundles released in Q1 should drive strong cash flow and improved visibility for the rest of 2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK240 (260).

Sales +14% in Jan/Feb, March more uncertain

Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK260.00) - A return to form

Q4 saw a significant earnings beat, as Paradox released DLC for all its core franchises. While variability between quarters is set to continue, we believe the quarter showcased the company’s strong earnings power, and we see potential for positive revisions as the pipeline matures and DLC cadence increases. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK260 (250) reflecting our raised estimates.

MTG (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Set for transformative 2025e

Q4 organic growth of 9% YOY was more than enough to impress the market, and we are encouraged by Strategy & Simulation’s strong performance. 2025 is set to be a key year for MTG, balancing the transformative SEK7bn Plarium acquisition with sustained organic sales progress. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK150 (140) on our 3–5% higher 2025–2026e adj. EBITDA.

Upside risk to H1'25e

Strong beat

Stillfront Group (Buy, TP: SEK12.00) - FCF holding up well

We have cut our 2025e adj. EBIT by 9% on the near-term guidance for an accelerating organic revenue drop YOY in Q1. However, we reiterate our BUY and have lowered our target price to SEK12 (14) following the solid FCF trend, which we expect to continue, and catalysts such as new management, improved organic revenue growth (H2e), and further FCF-enhancing efficiency gains. Our 2025e NIBD of SEK4.3bn, including current earnouts, equals 1.8x adj. EBITDA.