reports
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Trivium, TGS ASA, Intrum, Axactor, Virgin Media O2, Telecom Italia, Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Huhtamaki, Techem, Victoria, Teva, Encore Capital (formerly Cabot), Air Baltic
- Ola Øvrebø
Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK5.90) - Collection rebound
Through lower portfolio amortisation and improved funding costs, Axactor reported Q1 PTP of EUR13.5m, 41% higher YOY. Despite lower NPL collections following the portfolio sales in November, collection performance returned to above 100%, supported by the portfolio revaluation undertaken in Q4. Having repurchased an additional share of the ACR03 bond, Axactor appears better positioned to refinance in 2025. We have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by ~10%, and our target price to EUR5.9 (4.3), but reiter...
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Felix Fischer
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Si Yong Ng
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Ola Øvrebø
Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.30) - Staying focused
The journey towards a more stable balance sheet continues, as Axactor is keeping its ambition of refinancing the 2026 debt maturity by year-end. Although portfolio sales weigh on cash EBITDA YOY, we expect to see strong collection performance following the large revaluation in Q4. Helped by bond buybacks and lower interest rates, we see some relief for earnings, and have raised our 2026–2027e EPS by 11% and our target price to NOK4.3 (3.8). We reiterate our HOLD.
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Eircom, Tele Columbus, Stada, Ahlstrom, AMS Osram, Aston Martin, Axactor, Constellium, Lowell, Vallourec, Versuni (formerly Philips Domestic Appliances), CEMEX, Engineering Group, Infopro Digital, Ineos, Motel One, Cerba, Polynt, Standard Profil, Air France-KLM, Crown Holdings, Recordati
VK VALLOUREC SA
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
CCK CROWN HOLDINGS INC.
725180 STADA ARZNEIMITTEL AG
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
TC1 TELE COLUMBUS AG
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
CERBA CERBA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS PLC
AXA AXACTOR SE
EIRCOM EIRCOM
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Felix Fischer
- Filipe Botelho
- Haidje Rustau
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Ahlstrom, Huhtamaki, Azelis, MasOrange, Nokia, NewDay, Nemak, Lottomatica (formerly Gamenet), Ineos Quattro, Kem One, Casino Guichard-Perrachon, CEMEX, Versuni (formerly Philips Domestic Appliances), Ardagh Metal Beverage Packaging, Axactor, Ardagh, Oriflame, Cerba, Polynt
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Ian Wong
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Håkon Astrup
Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK3.80) - Capital structure in focus
A sizeable writedown in Q4 resulted from soft collections in Axactor’s NPL book throughout 2024. For 2025, focus has shifted to deleveraging, as the company looks to ease earnings pressure from higher interest rates and wider bond spreads through a healthy capital structure and improved funding terms. Modest investments and further asset sales could also support this. While we are reassured by the commitment to improve the capital structure, the low margins on the NPL back-book remains remain an...
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Ian Wong
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Si Yong Ng
- Tanvi Arora
Lucror Analytics - Morning Views Europe
In today's Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: EnQuest Plc, Rexel, United Group, Telecom Italia, PHM Group, Huhtamaki, Best Secret (Schustermann & Borenstein), Solenis, Iceland Foods, Asmodee, Axactor, Hurtigruten, Hapag-Lloyd
- ABGSC Financials Research
- Fredrik Flørnes Støle
- Jan Erik Gjerland
- Patrik Brattelius
- Felix Fischer
- Haidje Rustau
- Ian Wong
- Jayanth Kandalam
- Peter Low
- Felix Fischer
European High Yield Investment Outlook 2025 - Lucror Analytics
In this publication, we review the past year and discuss our outlook for the next 12 months. We begin our discussion with the macro factors at play, including GDP forecasts, the geopolitical landscape and our expectations for cost inflation. We also trace the development of primary markets in the European HY space, and give our view on defaults in general as well as for our coverage universe. We then discuss sector trends and expectations, along with earnings development for companies under our ...
PFD PREMIER FOODS PLC
AMS AMS AG
RR. ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS PLC
CO CASINO GUICHARD-PERRACHON SA
VK VALLOUREC SA
TLW TULLOW OIL PLC
EO FAURECIA SA
105I SAPPI LIMITED
TEVA.N TEVA PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
LBTYA LIBERTY GLOBAL PLC CLASS A
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
CCK CROWN HOLDINGS INC.
RXL REXEL SA
DBG DERICHEBOURG SA
725180 STADA ARZNEIMITTEL AG
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
TNET TELENET GROUP HOLDING NV
TUI1 TUI AG
NEX NEXANS SA
VED VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
VCP VICTORIA PLC
AF AIR FRANCE-KLM SA
BBD.B BOMBARDIER INC. CLASS B
SYNT SYNTHOMER PLC
INTRUM INTRUM AB
888 888 HOLDINGS PLC
IPF INTERNATIONAL PERSONAL FINANCE PLC
ENQ ENQUEST PLC
EDR EDREAMS ODIGEO SA
TC1 TELE COLUMBUS AG
9984 SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
103M SASOL LIMITED
TIT TELECOM ITALIA S.P.A.
REC RECORDATI INDUSTRIA CHIMICA E FARMACEUTICA S.P.A.
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
TALK TALKTALK TELECOM GROUP PLC
TATAMOTORS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
PL8 PLAYTECH PLC
ARW ARROW GLOBAL GROUP PLC
NEMAKA NEMAK S.A.B. DE C.V.
SPIE SPIE SA
CEXA CEMEX SAB DE CV (ADR)
ARD ARDAGH GROUP S.A. CLASS A
PFL PFLEIDERER GROUP SA
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
CDR CODERE S.A.
GAME GAMENET GROUP SPA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS PLC
TIFS TI FLUID SYSTEMS
NEXI NEXI S.P.A.
AXA AXACTOR SE
BORR SECURITAS DIRECT AB CL B
BORR DRILLING LTD
- Håkon Astrup
Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK3.80) - Hard reset
With the sale of EUR83m in NPL portfolios announced in November, and the outlook for further writedowns, Q4e is set for soft earnings as the focus shifts from NPL investments to debt leveraging. We have made sizeable 2025–2026 estimate cuts on lower investments, but we reiterate our HOLD and NOK3.80 target price.
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