BNP Paribas and Apollo Global Management: $5 billion collaboration wit...

BNP Paribas's capital collaboration with ATLAS will enhance growth of Apollo's strategically important asset backed finance business and BNPP's presence in North America

BNP Paribas: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of BNPP reflects its strong retail and commercial banking franchises and well-diversified business model as well as its well-balanced funding and liquidity profile.

Bank Brunch/Berlin Hyp social, Erste Group Bank, BNP Paribas T2, Jyske...

Berlin Hyp builds on its August primary track record with social covered. Erste Group Bank extends callable preferred senior curve. New BNP Paribas T2 bond to only partly fill the gap in the T2 bucket. Jyske Bank reports stable capital, new preferred senior in the pipeline

Bank Brunch/Berlin Hyp social, Erste Group Bank, BNP Paribas T2, Jyske...

Berlin Hyp builds on its August primary track record with social covered. Erste Group Bank extends callable preferred senior curve. New BNP Paribas T2 bond to only partly fill the gap in the T2 bucket. Jyske Bank reports stable capital, new preferred senior in the pipeline

Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.30) - Investing through the trough

Despite a still-challenging collection environment, Q2 cash EBITDA was EUR61m, up 3% YOY as cost-efficiency measures again reduced opex. Investment activity surged during the quarter, as EUR70m in NPL portfolio acquisitions (the highest since Q4 2022) contributed to another increase in the portfolio gross IRR. Since 2021, the gross IRR has risen from 15.7% to 18.9%. We have tweaked our 2025-2026e EPS after the report, and reiterate our HOLD and NOK4.3 target price.

Solid investments help ERC

Up investments, better cash EBITDA

Cash EBITDA +10%/+8 vs. ABG/consenus, margins 68.4%...; ...while EBIT still just on the softer side vs us and cons, but...; ERC back to growth +4% q-o-q = cons +5-10% = stock +2-10%

Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.30) - Modest collection environment

We forecast Q2 EBITDA of EUR33m, 2% higher YOY, as we expect a continued modest collection trend. Despite strong profitability on recent portfolio investments, NPL volumes are likely to remain at the low end of the guidance for 2024. Market interest rates continued to stabilise during the quarter, with forward curves pointing further downwards, providing relief from the high funding costs in recent quarters. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by ~4% and our target price to NOK4.3 (4.6). However, we ...

BNP Paribas: BNP Paribas' acquisition of AXA's investment management b...

The transaction will strengthen BNPP’s asset management business and drive long-term revenue growth, while strain on capital will be limited.

In need of higher collection performance

Q1: Weaker -than-expected cash EBITDA from tough collection. Cash EBITDA down ~20% on lower curves & NPL investments. Valuation not demanding, but collection needs to improve.

Axactor (Hold, TP: NOK4.60) - Challenging collection climate

Soft collections in the Nordic and German markets, and corresponding portfolio revaluations, led to a 9% YOY drop in total income in Q1. Although the EUR100m–200m annual investment target was reiterated, we expect modest activity short-term due to limited NPL volumes at attractive prices. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 10–14%, primarily reflecting lower collections, lowered our target price to NOK4.6 (6.8), and downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY).

Tougher to collect in Northern Europe

Cash EBITDA -20%/-15% vs. ABG/consenus, margins 62% which filter into poor EBIT -25%/-22% vs ABG/cons. ERC down 2% q-o-q = cons down 3-10% = stock down -7-13%.

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK6.80) - Abating interest rate pressure

We forecast Q1 pre-tax profit of EUR7m, down YOY, due to higher financing costs, although interest rates have stabilised since end-Q4. Somewhat softer collections from non-performing loans (NPL) and third-party (3PC) should lead to total income 3% lower YOY. We expect gradually increasing investments, with total volumes above replacement in 2024. We have made limited estimate revisions for 2025, and we reiterate our BUY and NOK6.80 target price.

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK6.80) - Aiming high for 2026

Axactor reported strong Q4 EBIT of EUR32m, up 11% YOY driven by higher income from the NPL and 3PC segments, in addition to improved opex. As part of its new financial targets for 2026, Axactor is aiming for an ROE of 12% while maintaining an ambition of a 20–50% dividend payout. As NPL portfolio prices have yet to fully reflect the rising interest rates, Axactor aims for EUR100m–200m in annual investments. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by 3–5% on the outlook for somewhat lower collections, but...

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK6.80) - Expecting solid 2023 performance

We expect a continued solid NPL collection performance to result in Q4 EBIT of EUR31m, up 9% YOY. In line with the guidance, we forecast 2023 NPL investments of EUR122m, enough to keep ERC stable going into Q4. We expect improved margins after having exited the third-party collections (3PC) segment in Sweden and Finland, offsetting lost volumes. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 1–5% following the improved outlook for lower market interest rates, and reiterate our BUY and NOK6.80 target price...

Moody’s assigns a Baa1(hyb) rating to AXA SA’s Restricted Tier 1 Perpe...

Frankfurt am Main , January 11, 2024 Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) has today assigned a Baa1(hyb) rating to the resettable fixed rate restricted Tier 1 perpetual notes to be issued by AXA SA ("AXA", Insurance Financial Strength Rating of Aa3, stable outlook). The notes will be partially or fu...

AXA SA: Semi-annual update

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its high degree of business and geographic diversification, constrained by its relatively high level of goodwill and other intangible assets.

Axactor (Buy, TP: NOK6.80) - Managed risk through low season

Our Q3e PTP of EUR8m, down 41% YOY, reflects higher interest rates continuing to raise funding costs, offsetting increased collections and higher ERC. Having successfully placed a new NOK2.3bn bond in August and repurchased the January 2024 maturity ACR02 bond, we believe a key equity case risk has been addressed. Although we still need to see a ramp-up of higher-yielding NPL investments, we continue to find the shares attractively valued at a 2024e P/E of ~4.5x. We reiterate our BUY and NOK6.8 ...

Moody's assigned a Aa3 instrument rating to €10 million of senior unse...

On 27 June 2023, Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) assigned a Aa3 instrument rating with a stable outlook to €10 million of senior unsecured notes (ISIN: FR001400IWO7) issued by BNP Paribas (BNPP or the issuer). The notes constitute direct, unconditional, unsecured and senior obligations of the ...

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