While we wait for good news out of Skive, the EU has been busy putting a price tag on non-recycled plastic waste and Quantafuel’s services. Hence, we have lowered our forecasts for feedstock costs, while lifting our ASP on the back of improved bio-premiums in the fuel markets and the company’s transition to premium markets for recycled plastic feedstock. Combined with a cost of capital aligned with its peer Vow, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK84 (23.1).
Quantafuel is well positioned to take advantage of the plastic waste megatrend, with its first-mover advantage in chemical recycling and backing from leading oil-market trader Vitol and chemicals giant BASF. We believe an imminent successful start-up in Skive, Denmark, could de-risk the technology and kick-start further growth rapidly, which we estimate would need USD95m of equity funding. We initiate coverage with a BUY and NOK206 target price.
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