Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK215.00) - Short-term pain, long-term gain

We expect Beijer Ref to continue to face short-term challenges from supply-chain issues and Covid-19 lockdowns, especially in its OEM business. However, short-term delivery problems could fuel pent-up demand from swelling order books in OEM, pent-up HORECA demand in refrigeration, and strong HVAC growth in Europe. We have cut our 2021–2022e EBIT by 3–0% but have not changed our view of a sound long-term earnings growth case and reiterate our BUY with a new target price of SEK215 (185).

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK185.00) - Q2 supports M&A and margin story

We have raised our 2021–2022e EBIT by 8–9% following a strong Q2, which we believe supports the M&A and margin case. The company could continue to look for higher-margin targets, thereby improving the M&A payback profile and reducing margin dilution. In our view, EPS growth drivers appear to be in place with: 1) a strong organic growth outlook from pent-up demand and a solid drop-through of 19% on our estimates; 2) accretive margins from M&A (16% margin from M&A in Q2); and 3) additional value c...

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK165.00) - Set for strong earnings growth

We believe Beijer Ref should enjoy solid quarters ahead given pent-up demand in refrigeration, strong HVAC growth in Europe and a big OEM order backlog, while operating leverage on higher volumes could yield higher margins. We estimate a SEK4.5bn M&A war chest could lead to 12% annual M&A growth in the coming years, and assuming 20% operating leverage on our 2021–2022e organic growth of 13–9% leaves our 2022e EBIT margin 60bp above consensus. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price...

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK440.00) - Solid Q1 bodes well for the future

In our view, Beijer Ref reported a solid Q1, with 7% organic growth and a 2% adj. EBIT beat versus consensus. Management indicated SEK16bn in sales in 2021e. Based on 20% drop-through, we estimate this could drive an 8.9% EBIT margin, while maintaining the Q1 M&A pace could add 8% to our 2021e EBIT. We have raised our 2021–2022e EBIT by 0–2% and our target price to SEK440 (430). We reiterate our BUY.

Beijer Ref AB - Slightly better than expectations

Sales +2% vs ABGSCe, (up 7% organically) EBIT SEK 263m (+3% vs. ABGSCe, +1% vs. cons) Expect share to trade in line with market

Beijer Ref AB - Four reasons to stay clear in 2021

Expectations of sustainability tailwinds are too high EBIT estimates for ’21-’23 down 10% Down to SELL, new TP of SEK 350 (360)

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK430.00) - Solid outlook on easing headwinds

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK430 (425), and believe headwinds from falling refrigerant prices are easing, adding further support to Beijer Ref being on course for above-average revenue and earnings growth. We have raised our 2021–2022e adj. EBIT by 2% on slightly higher organic growth assumptions in 2021 and announced acquisitions.

Go West…

Sector profitability is set to be strong in 2021 but mounting supply chain constraints are an increasing concern. We favour US exposure (Assa Abloy, Hexpol, Dometic), mining equipment (Epiroc, Metso Outotec) and construction. We recently upgraded Alfa Laval and Hexpol (from HOLD to BUY) and downgraded Volvo and ABB (from BUY to HOLD).

Northern Lights

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - Set for a compounder year

In our view, Beijer Ref is well-positioned for accelerating EPS growth in the coming years while an achievable level of M&A is not reflected in the stock price and the growth headwind from falling refrigerant prices is diminishing. In our organic forecasts including announced M&A, we expect a 2020–2023 EPS CAGR of 20%, and with a capital-light business model opening up for further M&A, it deserves a premium valuation in our view. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK425 (430)...

Talking Points - Nokia: Sell on retail hype

Kinnevik (HOLD) Preview: Q4 to show strong private portfolio momentum Valuation now out of line with fundamentals We move to SELL (Buy); TP remains EUR 4.0

Beijer Ref AB - Weak ending to a challenging year

Soft refrigerants and OEM led to 11% EBIT miss EBIT down 3% for 21e-’22e on refrigerant weakness Hold beyond near-term uncertainty, fundamentals intact

Beijer Ref AB - Weak report with organic sales decline

Sales -1%, -1% organic (ABGSCe 4%) EBIT SEK 256m (-11% vs. ABGSCe, -5% vs. cons) Expect share down mid-single digits

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK430.00) - Achievable M&A not reflected

Beijer Ref appears well-positioned for accelerating EPS growth in the coming years from organic expansion and M&A. In our organic forecasts including announced M&A, we expect a 2020–2023e EPS CAGR of 21%, while we believe the balance sheet and new owner EQT open it up for additional M&A, which could add c25% to our 2023e EPS forecast. We reiterate our BUY and have lifted our target price to SEK430 (365).

Northern Lights

Talking Points - Nordnet: Born again

Strong growth in savings capital and a scalable franchise Initiating coverage with BUY – TP of SEK 143

Beijer Ref AB - The hot cooling company

Global leader in refrigeration & HVAC distribution Fundamentals in place for long-term growth HOLD, TP SEK 370

Green is good

Average alignment with the EU Taxonomy that defines ‘sustainable activities’ could be as low as 11% for the sector. Hexagon, ABB and Alfa Laval screen best, while ‘strong’ ESG cases like Nibe and Beijer Ref’s alignments are surprisingly low. We also see a mismatch between companies’ taxonomy alignment and ESG funds’ positioning, which could have a major impact on flows in certain stocks. For 2021, our top sector picks are Autoliv, Dometic, Epiroc, Metso Outotec, Hexagon and SKF, as we favour aut...

Beijer Ref (Buy, TP: SEK365.00) - A new sheriff in town

Private equity firm EQT has become the largest shareholder in Beijer Ref, which we believe brings an active owner into the decision-making that could accelerate the M&A agenda. We also believe EQT will be looking to improve profitability by increasing scale and efficiency in regions with below-group margins. To try to assess the long-term value, we looked at potential value if the company executes on M&A and margins. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK365 (335).

Northern Lights