Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 in line with our expectations

Q1 is low season for NCC, but we believe the EBIT miss versus Infront consensus was likely due to some consensus participants overlooking the early Easter effect. With the Q1 results broadly in line with our estimates, we have made only minor forecast changes, and reiterate our BUY and SEK150 target price.

Miss in seasonally slow quarter

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - 2024 likely to be back-end loaded

We forecast Q1 organic revenue growth of 4.7% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by Hearing Care (we forecast 4.9%) and Diagnostics (we forecast 8.4%), while Hearing Aids faces a tough YOY comparable (we forecast 3.6%). We expect 2024 to be back-end loaded and driven by Oticon Intent. We expect maintained 2024 guidance of 4–8% organic growth, c1% M&A growth, c-1% FX, and EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK400 target price.

Service-heavy Q1 boosts margin hopes

8% better orders, very low equipm. sales and strong margin. Many moving pieces, but adj. EBIT +2-5%. We consider valuation of recovered earnings too high. SELL

Wärtsilä (Buy, TP: EUR20.00) - Smooth sailing

Following strong Q1 orders and earnings, we have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by 4% on average and our target price to EUR20 (18). We reiterate our BUY. We continue to forecast multiyear sales and earnings growth for Wärtsilä, and view it as attractively valued (see our recent report ‘Refuelled engines’).

Husqvarna (Sell, TP: SEK63.00) - Pressure persists

Continued weak end-market demand, lower production volumes, and a legacy-business exit weighed on sales and earnings in Q1. We expect organic growth and earnings to remain under pressure in 2024. Following the Q1 results, we reiterate our SELL and SEK63 target price.

Good orders, low equipment sales drive margin mix

Pareto Bank (Buy, TP: NOK68.00) - Loan-loss downtick

Helped by further NII expansion and a loan-loss downtick, Pareto Bank reported a solid Q1 ROE of 14.3%. While the CET1 ratio fell QOQ after strong lending growth (2.2% QOQ), the bank has a still-solid ~1.4%-point headroom to its 16.7% target. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~6.7x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK68 (63).

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

KONE : Un T1 qui rassure, la guidance 2024 est précisée

>Un T1 un peu meilleur qu’attendu - KONE a publié hier matin des résultats T1 un peu meilleurs qu’attendu. Les commandes progressent de 1.6% à changes constants (css à 0.9%), grâce notamment au segment modernisation qui progresse de plus de 10%. Le chiffre d’affaires a augmenté de 2.7% à changes constants au T1 (consensus : +2.3%), avec une Chine en recul de 4.9%. En termes d’activité, les nouveaux équipements reculent (-4.2% à changes constants), les services (+9%) e...

KONE : A reassuring Q1, 2024 guidance fine-tuned

>A better-than-expected Q1 - Yesterday morning, KONE published Q1 results that were a shade better than expected. Order intake was up by 1.6% at constant currency (cons. at 0.9%), notably thanks to the modernisation segment which grew by more than 10%. Sales were up by 2.7% at constant currency in Q1 (consensus: +2.3%), with a 4.9% decline in China. In terms of activity, new equipment declined -4.2% at constant currency, while services (+9%) and modernisation (+5.3%)...

Kone (Hold, TP: EUR46.00) - Elevator down, escalator up

We have slightly lowered our 2024–2026e clean EPS following the decent Q1 orders and earnings, and 2024 sales and clean EBIT guidance in line with our forecasts. We reiterate our HOLD and EUR46 target price.

Satisfactory delivery in a slow market

Mostly in line; orders 4% below, EBIT 3% above. Specified guidance close to estimates; adj. EBIT +0-2%. Mildly reassuring resilience but limited excitement in stock.

Cautious optimism ahead of Q2

-11% org. growth, partly due to normalised robotics sales. We see good prospects for improvements in Q2'24e. Lacking short-term triggers for re-rating, we reiterate HOLD.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/24/2024

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KONE : Q1 broadly in line, China continues to weigh. 2024 guidance fin...

>Q1 2024: sales +1.6% organic and EBIT margin at 10.2% - KONE this morning released its Q1 2024 results, which were broadly in line with consensus expectations:Orders at constant exchange rates were up 1.6% in Q1 (consensus at 0.9% and ODDO BHF at 5%), thanks notably to the modernisation segment which grew more than 10%. The gross margin on orders stabilised sequentially and relative to Q1 2023. Sales were up by 2.7% at CER in Q1 (consensus: +2.3%, ODDO BHF ...

KONE : T1 globalement en ligne, la Chine continue de peser. Guidance 2...

>T1 2024 : CA +1.6% en organique et marge d’EBIT à 10.2% - KONE a publié ce matin des résultats T1 globalement en ligne avec les attentes du consensus :Les commandes à changes constants sont en hausse de 1.6% au T1 (css à 0.9% et ODDO BHF à 5%), grâce notamment au segment modernisation qui progresse de plus de 10%. La marge brute des commandes s’est stabilisée en séquentiel et par rapport au T1 2023. Le chiffre d’affaires a augmenté de 2.7% à changes constan...