The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our preferred stocks include Anta, CR Beer, CTG...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, Gee...
Bud APAC reported a 4Q25 revenue of US$1,073m, down 4% yoy. Normalised EBITDA was US$167m, down 25% yoy, with a normalised EBITDA margin of 15.6%, down 425bp yoy. For the China market, 4Q25 volume and market share stabilised. For the full year, the company aims to reignite growth and rebuild momentum, with room for commercial investment increase as a percentage of net revenue, while margin improvement will be a long-term success Maintain BUY with unchanged target price of HK$9.90.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, G...
Budweiser APAC will report its 4Q25 results on 12 Feb 26. For the China market, we expect volume and ASP pressure to persist, with even greater challenges on the ASP front. For the South Korea market, we foresee higher yoy volume pressure together with slower ASP growth vs 3Q25. We expect revenue to decline by 13% yoy to US$991m and EBITDA to decline by 28% to US$165m in 4Q25. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 4% to HK$9.90.
Top Stories Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although deflation...
Greater China Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although defl...
We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed names and segments include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands China. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | Consumer We met investors in Thailand and Malaysia during our marketing trip from 24-28 Nov 25. Overall investor interest in the China consumer sector is improving. The most frequently discussed segments and names include Miniso, Shenzhou, Anta, consumer staples (including dairy, beer and baijiu), as well as some new consumption names such as Pop Mart (non-rated) and Laopu Gold (non-rated). Our preferred stocks include: Galaxy, Midea, Miniso, Shenzhou and Sands ...
Budweiser APAC reported 3Q25 revenue of US$1,555m, down 8% yoy, and normalised EBITDA was US$438m, down 7% yoy. In China, volume declined 11% and ASP dropped 4%. The company has increased the in-home mix to over 50%, with contributions from premium and super premium products within the in-home channel outpacing those of the restaurant channel. In South Korea, The company increased market share in both on-premise and in-home channels. Maintain BUY; cut target price to HK$10.30 (from HK$12.00).
Top Stories Company Results | ASMPT (522 HK/BUY/HK$83.85/Target: HK$104.00) ASMPT’s 3Q25 print missed expectations on a weaker product mix and one-off restructuring costs. Revenue was largely in line with the mid-point of its guidance, but gross margin was below expectations at 35.7% due to changes in product mix and inventory write-off from the restructuring. Nevertheless, ASMPT reported solid progress with TCB in both HBM4 and advanced logic C2W/C2S, while its mainstream tools continued to re...
We observed the following trends in holiday consumption: a) jewellery performed well on rising gold prices; b) retail and catering consumption was modest, with growth decelerating from that during the 2025 Spring Festival and Labour Day; c) specialty retail (duty-free) saw per capita spending improve; and d) consumers continued to show enthusiasm for tourism and leisure spending, with domestic long-haul travel and outbound travel gaining popularity. The lower-than-expected Macau visitor arrivals...
On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
Bud APAC’s 2Q25 EBITDA fell 5% yoy, largely in line with consensus forecasts. In China, beer sales volume fell 7% yoy while ASP rose 1% yoy. The restaurant channel slowdown is expected to persist in 2H25 due to the anti-extravagance policy, pressuring volume growth in 3Q25. However, improvement will be seen in 4Q25 thanks to a lower base. For South Korea, management remains confident about driving EBITDA margin expansion going forward. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$12.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI July's manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.3 (-0.4pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.1 (-0.4pt mom), as construction activity eased to 50.6 (-2.2pt mom). Slowing demand and rising input costs are slowing the recovery and affecting both large (-0.9pt mom) and small enterprises (-0.9pt mom). Nevertheless, business expectations have improved and should see a further lift from targeted anti-involution measures. Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance regis...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Rebound falters, weighed down by weaker construction and input cost pressures. Sector Automobile Weekly: PV sales pressured by anti-involution initiatives. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.26/Target: HK$12.00) ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK/BUY/HK$48.75/Target: HK$70.00): 1Q25: Results in line; poised for encouraging contribution from Kling AI in 2025. Link REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$40.90/Target: HK$44.90): FY25: Earnings beat expectations; cautious outlook for FY26. PDD Holdings (PDD US/SELL/US$119.24/Target: US$90.00): 1Q25: Earnings miss expectations; increased platform investment to weigh on profitability. Downgrade to SELL. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$51.55/Target: HK$69.90): 1...
Bud APAC’s 1Q25 EBITDA declined 11% yoy. For the China market, beer sales volume fell 9% yoy and ASP dropped 4% yoy. Although there was a slight improvement in the industry in 1Q25, consumer confidence remains subdued, and on-premise channels have not yet recovered significantly. Having been digesting channel inventory from 3Q24 to 1Q25, the company’s sell-in is expected to be more in line with sell-through in 2H25. Maintain BUY; cut target price by 10% to HK$12.00.
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