Small revisions in the dividend machine

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Focusing on strategic brands

The Q3 sales beat reflected a strong result in strategic brands, leading to an outperformance on adj. EBITDA. We expect continued momentum in strategic brands, with Q4e sales growth of 17.4% YOY. The 2024 guidance was narrowed for CER revenue growth of 12–14% (previously 11–14%) and CER adj. EBITDA growth of 17–20% (15–20%) and we find the top end of the guidance reachable. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.

2020 Bulkers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q3 results and latest business update. We continue to see significant risk to what we view as an imbalance between China’s excessive raw material imports and its underlying demand, showcased by ~5% growth in iron ore imports YTD being met by rapidly growing steel exports, with October up 41% YOY, while coal inventories are setting new highs. Bottom line, all else being equal, we calculate the current NAV/share would drop from NOK151 to NOK119 by applyi...

Q3 as expected, unchanged outlook

EBITDA of USD 15m (ABGSCe and cons at USD 15m), Potential downside to Q4 estimates - balanced outlook, Share to trade in-line with peers

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Margin strength outshines weak Enterprise

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 11/07/2024

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ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 07/11/2024

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GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Looking for an upturn in Enterprise

Q3 sales missed, owing to Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer performing below expectations, while EBITA was strong at DKK553m (c5.1% above consensus). The 2024 guidance was cut for organic growth to 1–2%, maintained for a 12–13% EBITA margin, and raised for FCF to DKK1.1bn+. With flat growth in headsets for two consecutive quarters, offset by a speakerphone decline, we now forecast -3% organic growth in 2024 (-2% in Q4). We reiterate our BUY and DKK230 target price.

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

GN Store Nord : Q3 2023 review – Lower end of guidance range for Enter...

>Q3 review - Miss on top line, EBITA as expected, beat on EPS level - GN Store Nord achieved Q3 2024 revenues of DKK 4,164m (-6.3% y-o-y, -6%/-5% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q3 EBITA reached DKK 553m (+18.7% y-o-y, margin 13.3%), which was in line with our and the consensus’ expectations. EPS reached DKK 1.86, well ahead of our DKK 1.44 and consensus’ DKK 1.34.GN Hearing continues its strong market outperformance - GN Hearing’s Q3 revenues of DKK 1,725m (...

Still strong rates, now at 40% yield

Net rates of USD 88.8/CBM in October, up 6% from September. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Relief warranted as margins hold up

Scatec (Hold, TP: NOK86.00) - Setting its priorities straight

We like the sharpened investment strategy up to 2027 with keener focus on core technologies and markets, and we welcome the attention on deleveraging, but we believe more than the low end of divestment proceeds is needed to fix the balance sheet. With more EPC scope from core technologies and an outlook for higher margins, we believe the market could start to assign a higher value to D&C. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK86 (80) on increased D&C estimates.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates owing to Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s Q3 results, which were broadly in line with our estimates and prompted limited underlying revisions. Hence, we continue to see considerable cash flow inbound (NOK62/share FCFE for 2025–2026e and NOK29/share excess long-term cash) that should be directed towards attractive shareholder returns in the years ahead, as we expect contracts to be renewed at better rates with decent visibility. We do not consider these changes to be material,...

'25e to be much better than '24e

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK230.00) - Adding company consensus

GN Group recently released company consensus. We forecast Q3 organic revenue growth of 0.4% YOY (consensus -0.2%) and an EBITA margin of 12.5% (consensus 12.0%). We expect still-strong traction of Nexia, but Enterprise to decline organically YOY. We expect unchanged 2024 guidance for 2–6% organic revenue growth and a 12–13% EBITA margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK230 target price.

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK56.00) - Strategic brands in focus

Lundbeck recently released company consensus for Q3. Our revenue forecast of DKK5,502m is c0.5% above, driven by strategic brands (we estimate 21.6% revenue growth YOY), and we forecast an adj. EBITDA margin of 29.4% (consensus 28.9%). We expect the 2024 guidance for 11–14% revenue growth and 15–20% adj. EBITDA growth at CER to be unchanged. We reiterate our BUY and DKK56 target price.