Expectations running ahead

We continue to see upside potential for diversified construction (Skanska, NCC and Veidekke), but downside risk for residential developers (YIT, JM, Peab and Selvaag Bolig) that have rallied on improving market expectations while new housing sales remains lacklustre. We await the adaptation of the recently EU-approved Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). We see a mixed picture for EPS ahead of the Q2 reporting season. We keep a neutral sector view, and still recommend a stock-pickin...

Renewable Weekly – 14 June 2024

This week, we look at the effect of AI/data centres on power demand.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK154.00) - Revealing put-option l...

The company is set to implement a reporting change that will considerably impair equity, while highlighting potential challenges in ongoing contract discussions.

Change in accounting treatment of EUKOR

Change in methodology implies equity reductions of USD 977. Symmetrical strike price set at P/E of 10x. Negative share price reaction of 2-4% expected.

A fine company, but elevated estimate risks

Renewable Weekly – 6 June 2024

On aggregate, the R&C stocks outperperformed the MSCI Nordic by ~1% throughout the reporting season (16 Apr to 6 Jun).

Coloplast (Buy, TP: DKK1000.00) - Big picture unchanged

At its ‘Meet the Management’ event, Coloplast confirmed its Strive25 targets, and provided a deep dive into Kerecis and an innovation update focusing on product launches. Despite recent volatility related to Kerecis, we remain positive on the acquisition and forecast solid growth and earnings contributions (our base case assumes inclusion in the LCD policy). Beyond Strive25, we forecast the EBIT margin to return to 30%+. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to DKK1,000 (1,050).

Many questions into MtM

Coloplast hosting Meet-the-Management meeting 6 June. Hard to see Coloplast shed enough Kerecis data to remove worries. Stock still too expensive and cost inflation may be reemerging.

2025 likely the earnings trough

Q1: A tad below, >260 unit sales YTD. UP: Divi . cut likely in a prolonged distressed market. HOLD, TP NOK 40.

Renewable Weekly – 23 May 2024

This week we highlight the tight offshore wind transport and installation (T&I) segment.

Still some start-up problems, but soon over

Gangway problem continues to weigh on estimates, but short-term issues should be behind us shortly. A clear BUY, six-month TP of NOK 33

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK25.00) - Estimates reduced on Q1 miss

With Q1 EPS 17% below our estimate, we have reduced our 2024e EPS by 3.5%, expecting 279 completed units for the remainder of this year. We see growing risk for 2025e EPS, given the guidance of just 18 completed units in H1 2025, but have only cut our forecast by 4.2%, as we expect starts to pick up later in 2024. While the share price rallied on market recovery expectations, we believe it will take several years for profits to recover. As we find the stock overvalued versus peers, and see a bet...

Start-up issues, but improvements ahead

A tad below, but improved market conditions

Renewable Weekly – 15 May 2024

This week, we take a preliminary look at Vestas' Q2 announced order intake quarter to date.

Leverage too low, more dividends needed

Q2 will likely see the first special dividend. '25e EBITDA +24% vs. consensus. TP NOK 203 (200) – BUY.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...