Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB: 1 director

A director at Swedish Orphan Biovitrum AB sold after exercising options/sold 58,480 shares at 280.829SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company'...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Multiconsult ASA: 1 director

A director at Multiconsult ASA bought 1,800 shares at 149.500NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Sparebanken Øst (Hold, TP: NOK53.00) - Strong Q1 and capital position

Boosted by a NOK31m gain from Eksportfinans, further NII expansion and still-modest loan losses, SPOG reported a strong Q1 ROE of ~13% (9% target), despite sustained cost pressure. With lower deposit margins and one fewer interest day more than offset by improved lending margins and solid lending growth, NII rose another 3.8% QOQ. Moreover, given its ample buffer to capital requirements, we see scope for payout ratios to remain near 100% in 2024–2026e. That said, with the stock trading at a 2025...

Mowi (Buy, TP: NOK235.00) - Operational recovery under way

Q1 operating EBIT was EUR201m and Mowi proposed a DPS of NOK1.5. The Norwegian operations have suffered due to a high share of downgraded fish; however, with new vaccines, increased filleting capacity and better preparedness for jellyfish, we find a brighter outlook. Also, feed input costs have started to turn for the better, and Mowi expects lower costs in H2. We have increased our 2024–2026e EPS by 5.6–2.7%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK235 target price.

Strong outlook not reflected in valuation

We keep '24-'25e largely unchanged. Credible expectations of improved biology and earnings. '24e P/E at 13x, a 16% discount to peers and 6-8% yield: BUY.

PhotoCure (Buy, TP: NOK87.00) - Focusing on underlying business

We have made limited estimate changes ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 15 May), and believe Photocure is moving forward in areas within its control. YOY comparables are affected by Q1 2023 being the last quarter with flex sales in the US. Its partner, Asieris, has filed for marketing approval of Cevira in China; if accepted for review, we believe Photocure would be in line for another milestone payment in Q2. We reiterate our BUY and NOK87 target price.

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK167.00) - Sustained NII momentum

Supported by further NII expansion, strong non-interest income and low loan losses, Q1 ROE was 16.0%, despite sustained cost pressure. Adjusted for the NOK59m positive one-off in Q4, ‘real NII’ rose another 7.3% QOQ, even with one fewer interest day. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK167 (161). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x, we continue to find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

2020 Bulkers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q1 report and latest commercial update. We remain concerned about the outlook for the dry bulk market, versus the elevated vessel valuations and sentiment. On our numbers, 2020 Bulkers is valued at P/NAV 1.06x, above the peer group average of ~0.86x. Despite the company boasting impressive financial strength and a modern fleet with associated earnings premiums to buffer lower freight rates, we remain cautious on the potential downside should market tai...

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Time to recharge

The Q1 results were above our forecasts, but cash flow was weak. We expect the key focus ahead to be the need for a new bank facility, which we are concerned could come at an increased financial cost. We have made minor estimate changes and reiterate our SELL and NOK21 target price.

Multiconsult (Buy, TP: NOK165.00) - Above consensus, in line with DNBe

Q1 EBITA was 11% above company-compiled consensus and in line with our estimate. Organic growth was 9.8% and the order backlog increased 9% YOY, outperforming our estimate by 5%. The billing ratio was better than we expected, but the rate was the below our forecast. We have made minor forecast changes following the Q1 results, mainly on updated KPIs. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK165 (160).

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Strategic brands off to a good start

We forecast Q1 revenues of DKK5,209m, c0.8% above consensus, driven by strategic brands, for which we forecast 15.0% revenue growth YOY, and an adj. EBITDA margin of 30.3% (consensus 29.7%). We expect unchanged 2024 guidance in constant exchange rate (CER) terms, but believe Lundbeck will revise its guidance for reported figures due to FX. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

Renewable Weekly – 8 May 2024

This week, we look at key takeaways from GWEC's 2024 Global Wind Report.

Running faster than ever

Q1: EBITA of NOK 137m vs. consensus NOK 123m. Could add +20% to EBIT through M&A. Trading at 15-20% discount to Nordic peers. BUY.

Powering up

Q1 demonstrated strength, more favourable market dynamics. Another beat in Q2e, we are 8% ahead on adj EBIT. Multiple expansion to continue: Still ~30% upside to TP: BUY

Elmera Group (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Q1 EBIT above

We consider this a positive report for Elmera overall, including EBIT above expectations but deliveries slightly below (but above in Consumer), and weak operating cash flow due to significant working capital movements. We expect 3% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBIT on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Mowi (Buy, TP: NOK235.00) - Neutral Q1, positive cost outlook

Q1 operating EBIT of EUR201m was in line with the trading update, but 4% below consensus of EUR210m. Q2 in Norway looks better; Mowi guided for lower costs in H2 and fewer fish downgrades next winter. The 2024 volume guidance remained 500kt. The proposed DPS of NOK1.5 was below expectations of NOK1.9–2.0. Mowi sees global supply growth of 1% in 2024, strong demand in Europe and a market recovery in the Americas. We find the report neutral, and see 0–1% changes to consensus 2024e EPS, with a simi...

Stronger income, lower losses but high costs

Adj. PTP beat of 4% vs. ABGSCe, 3% vs. cons (amid lower LLP). Strong quality income beat, but adj cost mute give PBLL beat 1%. Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. up 1-2%, stock 1-3% today

EBITA 11% above - billing ratio at ATH

Q1: DPS of NOK 1.5 (-19% vs cons)