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Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Novo Nordisk AS: 1 director

A director at Novo Nordisk AS sold 6,311,250 shares at 860.020DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cle...

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

2020 Bulkers (Sell, TP: NOK154.00) - Price surge adds downside risk

Recent strength in the dry bulk market combined with an even stronger share price performance leaves current pricing with material downside potential, in our view. Despite its impressive financial strength after asset sales and refinancing, we question the longevity of China’s record-high run-rate import demand, and find the elevated asset values and strong NAV valuations a fragile situation in months ahead. Hence, we have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), but have raised our target price to NOK154 (15...

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

 PRESS RELEASE

Notice of Yara Annual General Meeting 2024

Notice of Yara Annual General Meeting 2024 Yara International ASA will hold its Annual General Meeting on Tuesday, 28 May 2024 at 10:00 CEST. Notice of the Annual General Meeting together with all relevant documents is available at The Annual General Meeting will be held as a digital meeting with electronic voting via Lumi platform. It is also possible to cast votes or give proxy authorizations in advance. No pre-registration is required for shareholders who wish to participate, apart from nominee-registered shareholders. For detailed information about participation and voting, p...

 PRESS RELEASE

Innkalling til Yara generalforsamling 2024

Innkalling til Yara generalforsamling 2024 Yara International ASA vil avholde sin ordinære generalforsamling tirsdag, 28. mai 2024 kl. 10.00. Innkalling til generalforsamling og alle relevante dokumenter er publisert på Generalforsamlingen avholdes som et digitalt møte hvor aksjonærer kan stemme elektronisk via Lumi-plattformen. Det er også mulig å forhåndsstemme eller å gi fullmakt. Det gjelder ingen påmeldingsfrist for aksjonærer for å delta på generalforsamlingen, med unntak av aksjonærer som eier forvalterregistrerte aksjer. For mer informasjon om deltakelse og stemmegivning se Inn...

Linus Sigurdson
  • Linus Sigurdson

The weekly navigator

From the past week, we highlight: 1) we raised our target price on Latour to SEK285 (280), but reiterated our HOLD; 2) Kinnevik-owned Lunar raised SEK282m of new capital; and 3) we will host an investor lunch with Latour’s CEO Johan Hjertonsson at our Stockholm office next week.

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.

Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK1100.00) - Small guidance raise

Q1 LCY figures beat consensus due to US rebate adjustments related to 2023 adding c5%-points to LCY growth and low SG&A cost boosting EBIT growth in Q1. Wegovy sales were below consensus but above our forecast, and we have therefore adjusted our rebate assumptions for 2024. The 2024 guidance was raised to LCY sales growth of 19–27% (18–26%) and LCY operating profit growth of 22–30% (21–29%). We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,100 target price.

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Albert Broock
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Magnus Andersson
  • Patrik Brattelius

Nordic banks – statistical update – Swedish bankruptcies April 2024

The total number of bankruptcies was up 65% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024. Corporate bankruptcies were up 81% y-o-y and up 16% m-o-m in April 2024.

Assa Abloy AB: 1 director

A director at Assa Abloy AB bought 5,000 shares at 298.530SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Tomi Railo
  • Tomi Railo

Cargotec (Buy, TP: EUR88.00) - Attractively valued quality

Following a solid Q1, we have raised our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c11% on average and target price to EUR88 (77). Our positive case elements (Handling it successfully, 21 March) have strengthened and we reiterate our BUY as value creation potential remains.

Steffen Evjen
  • Steffen Evjen

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Jean Danjou ... (+2)
  • Jean Danjou
  • Oliver Metzger

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

Jean Danjou ... (+2)
  • Jean Danjou
  • Oliver Metzger

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

ABGSC Financials Research ... (+5)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Albert Broock
  • Jan Erik Gjerland
  • Magnus Andersson
  • Patrik Brattelius

Nordic banks – Statistical update - Norwegian lending March 2024

Total lending grew by 3.3% y-o-y (3.4% adjusted for FX effects) and 0.3% m-o-m. Last month, total lending was up 3.3% y-o-y.

Anthony Dick ... (+2)
  • Anthony Dick
  • Michael Foundoukidis

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu

>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...

 PRESS RELEASE

Cargotec's interim report January–March 2024: Comparable operating pro...

Cargotec's interim report January–March 2024: Comparable operating profit margin improved in all business areas CARGOTEC CORPORATION, INTERIM REPORT JANUARY–MARCH 2024, 30 APRIL 2024 AT 9:00 AM (EEST) Cargotec's interim report January–March 2024: Comparable operating profit margin improved in all business areas Sequentially stable demand in Hiab and Kalmar, Hiab's orders amounted to EUR 386 million and Kalmar's EUR 402 millionMacGregor’s merchant and services businesses' good performance continued, challenges remain in offshore projectsHiab's comparable operating profit margin was 16.6 (1...

 PRESS RELEASE

Cargotecin osavuosikatsaus tammi–maaliskuulta 2024: Vertailukelpoinen ...

Cargotecin osavuosikatsaus tammi–maaliskuulta 2024: Vertailukelpoinen liikevoittoprosentti parani kaikilla liiketoiminta-alueilla CARGOTEC OYJ, TAMMI–MAALISKUUN 2024 OSAVUOSIKATSAUS, 30.4.2024 KLO 9.00 Cargotecin osavuosikatsaus tammi–maaliskuulta 2024: Vertailukelpoinen liikevoittoprosentti parani kaikilla liiketoiminta-alueilla Kysyntä edellisen vuosineljänneksen tasolla Hiabissa ja Kalmarissa, Hiabin saadut tilaukset olivat 386 miljoonaa euroa ja Kalmarin 402 miljoonaa euroaMacGregorin kauppalaiva- ja huoltoliiketoimintojen hyvä suoritus jatkui, haasteet offshore-projekteissa jatkuvatH...

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