Leverage too low, more dividends needed

Q2 will likely see the first special dividend. '25e EBITDA +24% vs. consensus. TP NOK 203 (200) – BUY.

GN Store Nord: 1 director

A director at GN Store Nord bought 7,000 shares at 201.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...

2020 Bulkers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q1 report and latest commercial update. We remain concerned about the outlook for the dry bulk market, versus the elevated vessel valuations and sentiment. On our numbers, 2020 Bulkers is valued at P/NAV 1.06x, above the peer group average of ~0.86x. Despite the company boasting impressive financial strength and a modern fleet with associated earnings premiums to buffer lower freight rates, we remain cautious on the potential downside should market tai...

Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Strategic brands off to a good start

We forecast Q1 revenues of DKK5,209m, c0.8% above consensus, driven by strategic brands, for which we forecast 15.0% revenue growth YOY, and an adj. EBITDA margin of 30.3% (consensus 29.7%). We expect unchanged 2024 guidance in constant exchange rate (CER) terms, but believe Lundbeck will revise its guidance for reported figures due to FX. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.

EBITDA as expected and no big news

Adj. EBITDA of USD 439m (1% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons). Shipping services and Logistics above ABGSCe, Government and Holdings belowFlat share price given no surprises in the conference call

Higher contract share of 75%

Net rates of USD 83.5/CBM in April, down 1% from March. ~12% downside to consensus EBITDA for Q2'24e. Share to trade down 1-2%.

CMD sees GN increasingly investable

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK250.00) - Management setting the direction

We view the CMD as another step in rebuilding credibility. Key highlights included new financial aspirations for 2025–2028, insights into the One-GN strategy and deep dives into key markets, with management providing long-term market growth outlooks. We believe GN is ahead of its deleveraging plan and investor focus has shifted to the underlying business. We reiterate our BUY and DKK250 target price.

2020 Bulkers (Sell, TP: NOK154.00) - Price surge adds downside risk

Recent strength in the dry bulk market combined with an even stronger share price performance leaves current pricing with material downside potential, in our view. Despite its impressive financial strength after asset sales and refinancing, we question the longevity of China’s record-high run-rate import demand, and find the elevated asset values and strong NAV valuations a fragile situation in months ahead. Hence, we have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), but have raised our target price to NOK154 (15...

Hexagon Purus (Hold, TP: NOK7.00) - On track

The Q1 report came as a relief to the capital markets. With decent quarterly results, capacity expansion on track, and a still-supportive demand outlook, the industrial business case looks intact. That said, we note the still-high funding need. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK7 (6) on lower dilutive effects from assumed further capital raises after Friday’s share price rally. The stock continues to trade at an attractive 40–50% discount to other hydrogen equipment s...

+450bp gross margin underpins turnaround

A strong start to 2024 with 5-13% divisional profit beats. +450bp gross margin expansion validates turnaround story. BUY on deep values and turnaround, TP DKK 235 (225).

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK250.00) - Gaining confidence in management

The Q1 results beat our expectations and consensus, with c5% organic growth and a 12.5% EBITA margin, driven by the Hearing division, while Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer saw c0% organic revenue growth in still-muted markets. The 2024 guidance was maintained for organic sales growth of 2–8%, an EBITA margin of 12–14%, and FCF of >DKK700m. At the upcoming CMD, we expect focus to be on One-GN and market outlook. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK250 (230).

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/05/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024

We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...

GN Store Nord : Strong hearing aid business, stabilisation at Enterpri...

>Q1 review – Strong beat on bottom line - GN Store Nord achieved Q1 revenues of DKK 4,303m (+2.1% y-o-y, 0%/+1% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q1 adj. EBITA reached DKK 538m (+218% y-o-y, margin 12.5%), which was a strong beat by 35% of our estimates and by 32% vs consensus. EPS reached DKK 1.74 (vs DKK 0.87/0.85 expected). The 2024 guidance is confirmed.GN Hearing - Excellent organic growth on new Nexia platform - GN Hearing’s Q1 revenues of DKK 1,737m (+7....

Scatec (Sell, TP: NOK72.00) - Take profits

Declining prices of solar parks looks likely to result in higher growth opportunities in the years ahead. However, we still see growth possibilities limited by Scatec’s leveraged balance sheet, with a 2024e NIBD/EBITDA of 5.8x. With the company highlighting assets in non-core markets as the most likely to be sold during the year, we are concerned leverage will remain high. With underlying results and guidance only slightly above expectations, we consider the ~20% share price increase over the pa...

Growth and margin beat in key business'