No surprises in our pre-summer lunch

Solid Swedish April sales m-o-m

Had a good run – time for a breather

Strong top-line & good AQ muted by higher costs. Adj. EPS up 5% and 1% amid higher NII & associates; costs weigh. Had a good run, and reflects fundamentals: down to HOLD (Buy).

New season price for Nitrates

Leverage too low, more dividends needed

Q2 will likely see the first special dividend. '25e EBITDA +24% vs. consensus. TP NOK 203 (200) – BUY.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have marginally increased our revenue estimates and revised our cost assumptions, owing to the Q1 results. With no surprises related to the Red Sea disruption or the Baltimore bridge accident, focus should shift to shareholder distributions. The revised dividend policy allows for extraordinary dividends at the board’s discretion, something we have not seen before, and the first possibility could be in connection with Q2. We calculate cNOK25/share in excess cash today, potentially on top of N...

Sparebank 1 SMN (Buy, TP: NOK167.00) - Sustained NII momentum

Supported by further NII expansion, strong non-interest income and low loan losses, Q1 ROE was 16.0%, despite sustained cost pressure. Adjusted for the NOK59m positive one-off in Q4, ‘real NII’ rose another 7.3% QOQ, even with one fewer interest day. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by ~1–2%, driven by higher NII, and our target price to NOK167 (161). With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.1x, we continue to find the valuation attractive and reiterate our BUY.

2020 Bulkers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q1 report and latest commercial update. We remain concerned about the outlook for the dry bulk market, versus the elevated vessel valuations and sentiment. On our numbers, 2020 Bulkers is valued at P/NAV 1.06x, above the peer group average of ~0.86x. Despite the company boasting impressive financial strength and a modern fleet with associated earnings premiums to buffer lower freight rates, we remain cautious on the potential downside should market tai...

Veidekke (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Low-season beat, and raised EPS

Veidekke avoided the usual Q1 seasonal loss, reporting EBIT of zero, beating our estimate and Infront consensus. Order intake was also strong, and broadly in line with expectations. Following the results, we have increased our 2024–2026e revenue by c2% and EBIT by c3.5–4%, but raised our EPS by c8–9% after also increasing our financial income estimates. In turn, we have raised our target price to NOK125 (120), and upgraded Veidekke to BUY (HOLD).

Operational quality not reflected in the share

Q1: PTP NOK 25m vs. consensus NOK -14m. Loss-making revenue in the backlog the lowest in 9 years. DPS = EPS = 8-9% dividend yield. BUY.

Stronger income, lower losses but high costs

Adj. PTP beat of 4% vs. ABGSCe, 3% vs. cons (amid lower LLP). Strong quality income beat, but adj cost mute give PBLL beat 1%. Cons. '24e-26e EPS chg. up 1-2%, stock 1-3% today

Better than expected and improvement y-o-y

EBITDA as expected and no big news

Adj. EBITDA of USD 439m (1% vs. ABGSC, -1% vs. cons). Shipping services and Logistics above ABGSCe, Government and Holdings belowFlat share price given no surprises in the conference call

Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK64.00) - Positive margin surprise

Nolato reported a strong Q1, driven mainly by a margin beat in Engineered Solutions from a better product mix, stable industrial volumes and the China cost-savings programme showing progress earlier than expected. The margin beat and less negative YOY growth has prompted us to raise our 2024–2025e EBITA by 8–3%. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK64 (57).

2020 Bulkers (Sell, TP: NOK154.00) - Price surge adds downside risk

Recent strength in the dry bulk market combined with an even stronger share price performance leaves current pricing with material downside potential, in our view. Despite its impressive financial strength after asset sales and refinancing, we question the longevity of China’s record-high run-rate import demand, and find the elevated asset values and strong NAV valuations a fragile situation in months ahead. Hence, we have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), but have raised our target price to NOK154 (15...

Kindred Group Minor model adjustments

We have raised our 2024e adj. EBITDA by 2%, owing to the Q1 results and adj. EBITDA of GBP59.3m, up 20% YOY, 8% above our forecast (no consensus available) on surprisingly strong cost control (GBP10m lower opex than we forecast). The start to Q2 (daily average revenue up 8% YOY in constant currency, up to and including 4 February) was in line with our estimates, and the 2024 guidance for adj. EBITDA of GBP250m is unchanged. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed...

A. P. Møller Mærsk (Sell, TP: DKK9000.00) - Challenging the deep value...

The Q1 results proved disappointing to buy-side expectations, though reasonably aligned and even bullish compared to near-term consensus. Their market commentary could raise expectations above the upper end of the potentially conservative guidance, but we struggle to see the intrinsic value when facing the bleak container markets for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to DKK9,000 (9,600).

Continued strong demand will make a difference

Surprisingly strong container demand makes a big difference. '24e EBITDA of USD 6.2bn. TP of DKK 12,800 (13,260) – BUY.