This commentary reviews the 2Q23 results and outlook for U.S. capital markets banks. Key highlights include: • Consistent with recent quarters, strong trading results in Fixed Income and Equities offset weak investment banking revenue, which likely troughed in 2Q23. • Total net revenues were 15% higher than the pre-pandemic run rate and down only 10% compared to a very strong 2Q22. "Looking forward, the second half of the year remains unpredictable in our view, but we expect more normalized re...
This commentary reviews the results of the Federal Reserve’s U.S. stress test, which highlighted banks' capital adequacy despite severe hypothetical economic headwinds. Key highlights include: •All 23 banks cleared the Federal Reserve stress tests and many have announced plans for capital distributions, mainly in the form of dividend increases, with more expected to be announced with second-quarter earnings. •Banks remained sufficiently capitalized in the stress scenario and capital levels were...
This commentary reviews the Federal Reserve's annual stress test with a primary focus on commercial real estate (CRE). Key highlights include: •Positively, all 23 banks in this year's iteration cleared the Federal Reserve stress tests and would all be able to continue to lend supporting the economy. •This year's stress test included heightened stress scenarios, especially around CRE. Next to credit cards, CRE had the highest loss levels of any asset class. •Preliminary stress capital buffers (S...
This commentary reviews the 1Q23 results for U.S. capital markets banks Key highlights include: •Capital markets net revenues remained outsized in 1Q23 driven by another robust trading performance, particularly in Fixed Income, which mitigated continued weakness in Investment Banking. •Total net revenues were still more than 30% above the pre-pandemic run rate and down only 13% compared to an exceptional 1Q22. •We expect volatility in financial markets to continue, which would likely keep cl...
This commentary reviews the U.S. Residential Mortgage Market and its associated risks for U.S. Banks. Housing prices in the U.S. have appreciated sharply in recent years aided by historically low borrowing costs prevalent during the early stages of the pandemic. Key highlights include: • Strong U.S. home price appreciation was fueled by high demand during the pandemic from low-interest rates and more workplace flexibility that allowed employees to work from home. • The U.S. mortgage market is d...
This commentary reviews U.S. Bank exposure to Non-bank Financial Institutions (NBFIs). Key highlights include: • NBFI's comprise nearly half of all total global financial assets; U.S. banks have increased exposure to NBFIs as their exposure to the types of businesses done by the NBFIs has decreased, largely due to regulatory changes. • NBFIs include all institutions that provide financial services, liquidity, or credit but are outside the formal banking system, mainly since they do not take dep...
This commentary reviews the 3Q22 results for U.S. capital markets banks. Key highlights include: • Similar to the prior quarter, Fixed Income trading delivered exceptional results in 3Q22, which largely offset material declines across Investment Banking businesses. • Total net revenues declined 16% compared to an outsized 3Q21, but were still about 18% higher than the pre-pandemic run rate. • Looking ahead, we expect these trends to continue until there is at least some clarity around the e...
This commentary reviews CCAR and Commercial Real Estate. Key highlights include: • All 34 banks in this year's iteration cleared the Federal Reserve stress tests. • This year's stress test included heightened stress scenarios, especially around CRE. Next to credit cards, CRE had the highest loss levels of any asset class. • Preliminary stress capital buffers (SCB) have also been released with most banks remaining at 2.50%. “While the most recent round of Federal Reserve stress testing, sho...
This commentary reviews the 2Q22 results for U.S. banks. Key highlights include: • While the operating environment remains complicated and uncertain, U.S. banks performed well in 2Q22. • The quarter was characterized by strong, broad-based loan growth, higher NII and NIM expansion, mixed fee income trends and still pristine asset quality. • Looking ahead, we do not expect a significant amount of changes to our U.S. bank ratings in the near term, given that nearly 90% of DBRS Morningstar-rat...
This commentary reviews the 2Q22 results for U.S. capital markets banks. Key highlights include: • Despite mixed trends, capital markets net revenues remained outsized in 2Q22 led by another exceptional trading quarter, particularly in Fixed Income. • Total net revenues were still more than 30% above the pre-pandemic run rate and down only 4% compared to a very strong 2Q21. • Given the still complicated and uncertain operating environment, we expect continued volatility in the financial mark...
This commentary reviews the 1Q22 results for U.S. capital markets banks. Key highlights include: • Capital Markets results at the U.S. Peer Group in 1Q22 remained strong, with aggregate net revenues up 26% linked-quarter, which were only 11% lower than the record-setting 1Q21. • Performance was driven by exceptional trading results and continued strength in Advisory, which outpaced the impact of an industry-wide slowdown in issuance volumes, particularly within Equity Underwriting. • Impor...
This commentary reviews the 4Q21 results for U.S. capital markets banks. Key highlights include: • Capital Markets results at the U.S. Peer Group in 2021 exceeded our expectations. While 2020 saw each institution experience near-record-setting revenues across most businesses, 2021 was even better overall. • Looking forward, we would expect overall performance to eventually moderate during 2022, although we see it as more likely to occur in the second half of the year. “We note that IB pip...
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