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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

CM.com: Bird goes directly after CM.com customers (again). D'Ieteren: Belgium November car registrations down 11.8%, VW down 24%

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Aalberts: Big step forward in disposal programme. Belfius: No sale of stake to private investors, no sell down of BNP Paribas stake either. CM.com: Bird withdraws takeover proposal. Recticel: Acquisition of a 76% stake in Miclar Group. Theon International: c.€150m rights issue

Marc Hesselink ... (+3)
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Thymen Rundberg

CM.com/Chasing growth, facing challenges/HOLD

We lower growth estimates for the coming years. We remain cautious on growth given limited visibility and dependence on new product success (eg, Halo) and Connect recovery. We also cut our adj. EBITDA estimates after CM.com downgraded its FY25 EBITDA guidance. We believe a Bird takeover is unlikely, and the recent €5m equity issuance triggered us to dive deeper into CM.com's balance sheet. Based on our current estimates, we see risks tied to RCF covenants effective from 3Q26. We keep our HOLD ra...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN Amro: 3Q mixed, NIBC M&A good value for money. Adyen: CMD highlights – confident on long-term growth Belgian Telecoms: Digi Belgium raises €104.5m in capital, after €80m capital increase in July. CM.com: Raises €5m through private placement. Recticel: Peer Rockwool's 3Q25 trading update. Zabka: Potential bidder for Carrefour Romania. Events Calendar

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Adyen: Preview Investor Day Aperam: In line 3Q25 EBITDA, soft 4Q25 guidance balanced by optimism on EU trade action and FCF beat Brunel: 3Q25 beats; outlook FY25 in line but trend NL and cash position weaker CM.com: Rejects Bird's offer Euronext: Records, beats, buybacks and upgrades GBL: 3Q25 a bit light Kinepolis: Canadian peer Cineplex 3Q25 Results and October 2025 Box office revenue NEPI Rockcastle: COO appointed as new CEO Proximus: Major cut to Global 2026 EBITDA, in line 3Q, 2025 FCF guid...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ahold Delhaize: Strong beat driven by one-offs Alfen: Bull bear fight continues bpost: 3Q25 results in line with INGF but miss vs consensus, FY25 outlook fine-tuned to top-end CM.com: Takeover offer from Bird Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Refreshing D'Ieteren: Belron peer Driven Brands 3Q25 talks of lower Q4, choppiness in Collision and Direct Repair Exor: Ferrari reassures with strong 3Q25, improved guidance KPN: Strategy update reassures, largely in line, with solid cash returns expec...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Alfen: Preview - kitchen sinking again? CM.com: New CFO appointed. Cofinimmo: Good results a touch better than forecasts, guidance reconfirmed, DEME Group: Wins strategic position in Brazil. D'Ieteren: State Farm TPA contract details emerge. Signify: 3Q25 results – guidance cut. Xior Student Housing: 5.4% LFL growth and full occupancy – operational trends solid.

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

CM.com: 3Q25 Trading Update – FY25 EBITDA guidance lowered. Fugro: Consensus vs INGF - deviation in 4Q, not 3Q. Heijmans: Preview - elections could cause disruption. KBC: 3Q Pre-close note: uneventful, 4Q will be the focus. Var Energi: Production lift helps materially

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

ABN AMRO: Pre-close 3Q: HAL inclusion. Ahold Delhaize: Peer Albertsons 2Q25/26 results. AMG: Lithium supply deal with Beijing Easpring. ASML: 3Q25 results supportive. Barco: 3Q25 trading update inline, surprise buyback. Belgian telcos: Start of the market test for cooperation agreement in Flanders. CM.com: Preview 3Q25 trading update. NSI: Vacancy increase as expected, marginal guidance update. Staffing sector: PageGroup 3Q25 trading update. Zabka: 3Q25 Preview - Like-for-Like(...

Marc Hesselink ... (+3)
  • Marc Hesselink
  • CFA
  • Thymen Rundberg

CM.com/Tempered growth expectations/HOLD (previously Buy)

We downgrade our rating from Buy to HOLD and lower our target price to €6 per share (from €9). We believe the company's growth profile has become more uncertain, and less attractive in our view. We still view CM.com's one-stop-shop as unique and still forecast gross profit growth of 10% by 2028, but we believe the path forward will be more gradual. For us to become more positive on the case, we would need to see more material growth impact from non-Connect business units (Engage, Pay, Live), and...

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