Money Forward (3994 JT) and Freee's (4478 JT) market caps have been converging as the latter starts a recovery from all-time lows. Freee's earlier shift to operating profitability has attracted investor attention, as MF guides for a deceleration in sales growth for its FY25. However, over the long-term, MF is looking more attractive.
In this quarterly strategy report, we look to evaluate where we are with regards the bull market conditions, and where those indicators might be headed, factoring in the downside risks, from Trump tariffs and the US economy, BoJ actions, Japanese earnings and valuations.
PSA: Enterprise Software: SMID-Cap IT Services Valuations-Growth Gap Looking for opportunities in SMID-cap IT services and SaaS companies with significant gaps between valuations and growth among those well positioned for growth in a changing world.
PSA ERP Software: Visional (4194 JT) Update Visional is expecting FY25 OP growth to slow sharply as is invests for growth. As a company that often beats its OP forecasts, the release of its FY25 Q1 results on 12 Dec will be the earliest indication as to whether it can outperform once more.
In response to disappointing Q2 results, a weak performance overseas and a revision down to the Industrial IT Solutions business, NRI shares were sold down -9% on 31 Oct. Lindsay Whipp suggests that close attention to this troubled areas must be monitored and until improvements are evidence, the rich valuations are not justified.
Ahead of its FY24 Q2 results on 31 Oct, Lindsay Whipp outlines the key drivers for TIS, with eyes on whether the order book has improved to provide a potential calayst for the shares – shares of which are on undemanding valuations, despite the 20% YTD gain in the share price.
When the BoJ raised rates in March, it had been 17 years since it had last done so, though the world was very different then. While the July rate hike was unlikely to move the economic needle, the question now is what else might follow the subsequent financial market maelstrom. Pelham Smithers discusses the outlook for Japan’s macro environment, what new fiscal policies the new PM might introduce, how the BoJ might react and the all-important trend in corporate earnings. This then leads us to...
PSA Enterprise Software: Visional (4194 JT) – Raises Forecast Visional shares were sold off following their Q3 FY24 earnings report on lower than expected sales. However, profits were higher than expected on cost savings. They also revised up their forecasts. In this report we discuss those details as well as the hiring environment and Visional's platform services to help both candidates and companies as the sector is undergoing changes in Japan.
TIS Inc has underperformed its peers amid volatility in the company’s order book. However, it is a steady ship sailing in fair winds. Sales and OP are rising steadily, while the system integrator is well-positioned for long-term growth. All this on an EV/OP of just over 10x.
IIJ’s Dilemma: Go Big or Go Big and Small? Internet Initiative Japan (3774 JT) has a dilemma on its hands which their Q2 FY23 results illustrated vividly. As they are moving up with larger projects they also have to balance the mix between larger and smaller projects and earnings volatility. Valuations are not stretched and the outlook is positive. Analyst Lindsay Whipp report attached.
The FY23 (Mar yr-end) Q2 earnings season is now over for Japan’s system integrators and network infrastructure companies. Analyst Lindsay Whipp discusses the main takeaways from their results and highlights where it leaves them in relation to their earnings growth potential and valuations.
We take a fresh look at our expectations for Visional, in light of the company’s decision to place its mid-term annual sales growth outlook at between 15%~20%. Even with more tempered expectations, Visional’s valuations aren’t looking particularly stretched with a FY25 EV/OP of just under 15x based on our estimates. That said, we think the company is more vulnerable to competition with this slower growth outlook. So, the FY24 performance will be crucial in ascertaining its ability to grow the bu...
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