Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+7)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

The PSA Weekly Research Round up for the week to 8 December 2023

Weekly Comment Summary While familiar to those who move in Japanese financial circles, current Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino was hardly a household name outside of that group. That changed on Wednesday when he delivered an analysis of what would happen if / when interest rates in Japan turned positive, explains Pelham Smithers. PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews • Visited: Meeting with CEO of Valens Semiconductor (VLN US), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Fujifilm Holdings (4...

Lindsay Whipp ... (+4)
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 8 Dec: Himino Shock Day 2 / Video games round-up / Denso's ...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk, Thao Nguyen and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Subaru (7270 JT), Komatsu (6301 JT), Dai-ichi Life (8750 JT), Benefit One (2412 JT), M3 Inc (2413 JT), Pasona Group (2168 JT), Rohm (6963 JT), Toshiba (6502 JT), Nichirei (2871 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Olympus (7733 JT), Tose (4728 JT), Konami (9766 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Krafton (255960 KS), Nexon (3659 JT), Denso (6902 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Toyota Industries (6201...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos / New Mobility: Honda’s (7267 JT) Bounce-Back Could be Short...

Honda has been enjoying a strong sales and profit rebound, thanks to near-perfect business conditions. Now, analyst Julie Boote suggests that there is a risk FY24 business results could disappoint as the earnings outlook deteriorates.

Julie Boote ... (+2)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today 7 Dec: Foreign selling, global macro woes / DRAM prices up /...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers and Julie Boote Tags: Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), ANA Holdings (9202 JT), Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Hitachi (6501 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Nexon (3659 JT), Konami (9766 JT), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Micron (MU US), Nintendo (7974 JT), Renault (RNO FP), Nissan Motor (7201 JT0, Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JT), Geely Automobile (175 HK) Main Points • Japan shares drift lower on global economy con...

Thao Nguyen
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Internet / e-Commerce: Takeaways from Trend Micro’s (4704 JT) IR D...

Trend Micro's first ever IR Day on 1 Dec has generated much enthusiasm about the stock. In this report, analyst Thao Nguyen presents her key takeaways from the event.

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Trump Set to Pull out of Free Trade Agreement with Korea – Unfair fo...

President Trump threatens to raise pulling out of the Free Trade Agreement with Korea, KORUS, when he discusses the issue with his advisers next week. This follows complaints by Mr Trump earlier this year when he noted that American automakers struggle to sell cars in Korea, while Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors seem to be having an easy ride in the US.In our view, there is little to complain about, if you look at the trade data and sales developments in detail: Both countries now offer free entry...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos: Time to Panic about China EV Sales Quota? – Automakers Ho...

The German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Tuesday August 29th that China’s regulators will soon release some final, softened rules regarding 2018 sales quotas for electric vehicles (EVs). The currently-known draft outlines that OEMs have to generate ‘green credits’ equivalent to 8% of their total auto sales in 2018 (10% in 2019, 12% in 2020). For instance, an automaker selling 1mil cars a year in China would need to generate 80,000 credits; credit points are highe...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Global Strategy: Have We Passed Peak FANG?

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a l...

Joel Scheiman
  • Joel Scheiman

Fujifilm Holdings (4901) FY17 Q1 Results Meeting – Cameras Push Earn...

Key Points Fujifilm explained at its earnings meeting that the Imaging and Information Segments combined beat its guidance thanks to strong momentum for cameras but made no changes to its guidance. Documents (Fuji Xerox) again appeared to disappoint, although management noted that Q1 results were only slightly below internal targets. Management appears confident that conditions will improve by H2, boosted in part by its supply of more than ten new office product models this year to the newly...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 14th: Strong Yen/June GDP +1.0% QoQ, +4.0% Annualized/To...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,537.10 (-¥192.64 / -0.98%); Topix ¥1,599.06 (-¥18.19 / -1.12%); ¥/$109.56Tags: Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Hon Hai (2317 TT), Sony (6758), Recruit Holdings (6098), Trend Micro (4704), istyle (3660), Avex (7860), Ferrotec (6890)Strong yen sends market lower after holidayNew highs for Yaskawa and Daifuku – again June GDP up 1.0% QoQ, 4.0% annual...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+7)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

The PSA Weekly Research Round up for the week to 8 December 2023

Weekly Comment Summary While familiar to those who move in Japanese financial circles, current Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino was hardly a household name outside of that group. That changed on Wednesday when he delivered an analysis of what would happen if / when interest rates in Japan turned positive, explains Pelham Smithers. PSA Company Visits, Tours and Interviews • Visited: Meeting with CEO of Valens Semiconductor (VLN US), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Fujifilm Holdings (4...

Lindsay Whipp ... (+4)
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 8 Dec: Himino Shock Day 2 / Video games round-up / Denso's ...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk, Thao Nguyen and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Subaru (7270 JT), Komatsu (6301 JT), Dai-ichi Life (8750 JT), Benefit One (2412 JT), M3 Inc (2413 JT), Pasona Group (2168 JT), Rohm (6963 JT), Toshiba (6502 JT), Nichirei (2871 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Olympus (7733 JT), Tose (4728 JT), Konami (9766 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Krafton (255960 KS), Nexon (3659 JT), Denso (6902 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Toyota Industries (6201...

Julie Boote ... (+2)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today 7 Dec: Foreign selling, global macro woes / DRAM prices up /...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers and Julie Boote Tags: Alibaba (9988 HK), Tencent (700 HK), ANA Holdings (9202 JT), Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Hitachi (6501 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Nexon (3659 JT), Konami (9766 JT), Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Micron (MU US), Nintendo (7974 JT), Renault (RNO FP), Nissan Motor (7201 JT0, Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JT), Geely Automobile (175 HK) Main Points • Japan shares drift lower on global economy con...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+4)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 6 Dec: A surge on US rate cut hopes / GTA6 and PS5 Pro / Con...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Schieman, William Nestuk and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Toppan Holdings (7911 JT), Tokyo Electric Power (9501 JT), Ceres (3696 JT), Monex (8698 JT), GMO Internet (9449 JT), SBI Holdings (8473 JT), Take Two (TTWO US), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US), Sony (6758 JT), Microsoft (MSFT US), Fujifilm Holdings (4901 JT), Ibiden (4062 JT), Shinko Electric (6967 JT), Unimicron (3037 TT), Nan Ya PCB (8046 TT), Kinsus Interconnect (3189 TT), AT&S (ATS AV)...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+4)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 5 Dec: China worries and SOX sell-off / Oct camera sales / G...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Advantest (6857 JT), Disco (6146 JT), Renesas (6723 JT), Subaru (7270 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Shimano (7309 JT), Sakura Internet (3778 JT), Nvidia (NVDA US), Konami (9766 JT), CyberAgent (4751 JT), Mixi (2121 JT), Tamron (7740 JT), Canon (7751 JT), Take Two Interactive (TTWO US), Microsoft (MSFT US), Sony (6758 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Suzuki (7269 JT), BYD (1211 HK), M&A Research Institute (9...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

The PSA Must Read Weekly Research Round-Up (week to Aug 10)

Inside the PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up you have:The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers (available upon request):Ahead of August 14th’s expected GDP number, we discuss Japan’s inflation story. Reports / Flash Notes Published This Week: Headlines at a Glance (full reports available upon request):1. Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity 2. Internet: Rakuten (4755) Q2 FY17 – A Decent Quarter but the Risk of Profit Volatility is High 3. Industrial Machinery: IHI (7013) – Still Engine-Driv...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 10th - Long week-end ahead/Toshiba files accounts/China'...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,729.74 (-¥8.97 / -0.05%); Topix ¥1,617.25 (-¥0.65 / -0.04%); ¥/$109.95Tags: Shiseido (4911), Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706), Japan Display (6740), W-Scope (6619), Yaskawa (6506), Daifuku (6383), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Honda (7267), Toyota (7203), Nissan (7201), Mazda (7261), Aisin Seiki (7259), Denso (6902), Koito (7276), IHI (7013), DeNA (2432)...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 9: North Korea/Olympus disenchantment/SoftBank questions...

PSA Today Aug 9: Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen  Nikkei ¥19,738.71 (-¥257.30 / -1.32%); Topix ¥1,617.90 (-¥17.42 / -1.07%); ¥/$109.98 Tags: Olympus (7733), SoftBank (9984), Sprint (S US), T-Mobile US (TMUS US), Charter Communications (CHTR US), Dish Network (DISH US), Gumi (3903), Square Enix (9684), Honda (7267), Suzuki (7269), Yamaha Motors (7272), Harley Davidson (HOG US), Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Nabtesco (6268), SMC (6273), IHI (7...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity

In October 2012, just as Shinzo Abe was stepping up to the plate as the new leader of the then opposition party, the LDP, a relatively unknown former cabinet minister, Fumio Kishida, took over as head of the Koga faction. While factions are a feature of any political party, they were hard-coded into the LDP by the multi-seat constituency system, whereby you could run up to five candidates per district, with a view to winning up to five seats. As a consequence, while seemingly aligned in the Diet...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

US Auto Sales June – The Japanese Big 3 Outperform

Key Points   US auto sales fall 3% YoY in June, with light truck sales up 4.1% YoY and passenger car sales down 13.2% YoY SAAR 16.51 mil, lowest since Apr 2005 Lower replacement demand, lower fleet sales, higher interest rates and increasing competition from cheaper second-hand cars continued to weigh on the auto market Incentives by the Japanese are higher than the Detroit 3   Toyota (7201) sales +2.1%, Honda (7267) +0.8%, Nissan (7201) +2.0% vs the Detroit 3 (which are all down)   Sub...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Honda (7267) FY17 Outlook – Relative Position to Improve under Chall...

Key Points  Honda produced strong results in FY16; partly due to the reversal of Takata (7312)-related recall expenses, but also on high production cost savings and positive volume contributions.   Honda’s FY17 guidance was below market consensus, on the back of cautious currency assumptions, expectations for sharply rising raw material prices, and deteriorating sales conditions in the US.  Although we agree that the market environment is becoming more challenging for automakers in general,...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Strategy: As the Nikkei Threatens to Break Out – What Stocks to Focu...

So far in 2017, Japanese equities have been involved in something of a tug-of-war. The oscillation in the yen / dollar has impacted on market direction; yet with each oscillation, there has been a steady creep forward; Topix is currently up 3.5% year-to-date in yen terms, and 5.0% in dollar terms.   That the market is up despite: The dollar having started the year at 117.55 and is actually down slightly as of March 10th, to 115.39, and The fact that foreigners have sold US$5bil of Japanese...

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