Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Joel Scheiman ... (+4)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 29 Oct: Nikkei surge / Considering Advantest, Teradyne / PSA...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, William Nestuk and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Advantest (6857 JT), Teradyne (TER US), Microsoft (MSFT US) OpenAI (pvt), Hitachi (6501 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), SoftBank Group (9984 JT), Kinden (1944 JT), Kandenko (1942 JT), Obic (4684 JT), Obic Business Consultants (4733 JT), PCA Corp (9629 JT), Ines Corp (9742 JT), Shift (3697 JT), BayCurrent (6532 JT), PKSHA (3993 JT), ExaWizards (4259 JT), Komatsu (6301 JT), Shimano (7309 JT), Nidec ...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Technology / Semiconductors: Advantest (6857 JT) Revises Up Full-Y...

A strong FY25 Q2 performance for Advantest led to the firm raising its full-year guidance. We look to guidance from Teradyne to see if the good times will continue and what is reflected in the price. It is a Pelham report.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA FinTech: SBI Shinsei Bank (8473 JT) Unveils IPO Plans

Pelham Smithers reviews SBI Shinei Bank’s IPO metrics and makes a comparison with Rakuten Bank. As for SBI Holdings, despite the strong rise in the shares, on a a sum-of-the-parts analysis and factoring its holding in (1) SBI Shinsei and (2) Ripple Labs, there is still hidden value to unlock.

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Industrials / Electrical Equipment: Nidec (6594 JT) – Shares Limit...

Autos/ New Mobility analyst Julie Boote discusses the implications of the TSE’s decision to designate Nidec as a ‘security on special alert’.

Joel Scheiman ... (+5)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 28 Oct: Profit-taking, yen strength / SBI Shinsei Bank IPO p...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Joel Scheiman, William Nestuk and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Qualcomm (QCOM US), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), Renesas (6723 JT), Macnica Holdings (3132 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Ibiden (4062 JT) Olympus (7733 JT), Canon (7751 JT), Ricoh (7752 JT), Konica Minolta (4902 JT), Seiko Epson (6724 JT), Brother (6448 JT), Nitto Denko (6988 JT), Koei Tecmo (3635 JT), Shionogi (4507 JT), Sakura Internet (3778 JT), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT), Tanaka Chem...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Trump Set to Pull out of Free Trade Agreement with Korea – Unfair fo...

President Trump threatens to raise pulling out of the Free Trade Agreement with Korea, KORUS, when he discusses the issue with his advisers next week. This follows complaints by Mr Trump earlier this year when he noted that American automakers struggle to sell cars in Korea, while Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors seem to be having an easy ride in the US.In our view, there is little to complain about, if you look at the trade data and sales developments in detail: Both countries now offer free entry...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos: Time to Panic about China EV Sales Quota? – Automakers Ho...

The German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Tuesday August 29th that China’s regulators will soon release some final, softened rules regarding 2018 sales quotas for electric vehicles (EVs). The currently-known draft outlines that OEMs have to generate ‘green credits’ equivalent to 8% of their total auto sales in 2018 (10% in 2019, 12% in 2020). For instance, an automaker selling 1mil cars a year in China would need to generate 80,000 credits; credit points are highe...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Global Strategy: Have We Passed Peak FANG?

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a l...

Joel Scheiman
  • Joel Scheiman

Fujifilm Holdings (4901) FY17 Q1 Results Meeting – Cameras Push Earn...

Key Points Fujifilm explained at its earnings meeting that the Imaging and Information Segments combined beat its guidance thanks to strong momentum for cameras but made no changes to its guidance. Documents (Fuji Xerox) again appeared to disappoint, although management noted that Q1 results were only slightly below internal targets. Management appears confident that conditions will improve by H2, boosted in part by its supply of more than ten new office product models this year to the newly...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 14th: Strong Yen/June GDP +1.0% QoQ, +4.0% Annualized/To...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,537.10 (-¥192.64 / -0.98%); Topix ¥1,599.06 (-¥18.19 / -1.12%); ¥/$109.56Tags: Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Hon Hai (2317 TT), Sony (6758), Recruit Holdings (6098), Trend Micro (4704), istyle (3660), Avex (7860), Ferrotec (6890)Strong yen sends market lower after holidayNew highs for Yaskawa and Daifuku – again June GDP up 1.0% QoQ, 4.0% annual...

Joel Scheiman ... (+4)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 29 Oct: Nikkei surge / Considering Advantest, Teradyne / PSA...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, William Nestuk and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Advantest (6857 JT), Teradyne (TER US), Microsoft (MSFT US) OpenAI (pvt), Hitachi (6501 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), SoftBank Group (9984 JT), Kinden (1944 JT), Kandenko (1942 JT), Obic (4684 JT), Obic Business Consultants (4733 JT), PCA Corp (9629 JT), Ines Corp (9742 JT), Shift (3697 JT), BayCurrent (6532 JT), PKSHA (3993 JT), ExaWizards (4259 JT), Komatsu (6301 JT), Shimano (7309 JT), Nidec ...

Joel Scheiman ... (+5)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 28 Oct: Profit-taking, yen strength / SBI Shinsei Bank IPO p...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Joel Scheiman, William Nestuk and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Qualcomm (QCOM US), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), Renesas (6723 JT), Macnica Holdings (3132 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Ibiden (4062 JT) Olympus (7733 JT), Canon (7751 JT), Ricoh (7752 JT), Konica Minolta (4902 JT), Seiko Epson (6724 JT), Brother (6448 JT), Nitto Denko (6988 JT), Koei Tecmo (3635 JT), Shionogi (4507 JT), Sakura Internet (3778 JT), Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JT), Tanaka Chem...

Joel Scheiman ... (+4)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 27 Oct / We're there! 50,000 on the Nikkei; concentrated, th...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Joel Scheiman and William Nestuk Tags: Kawasaki Heavy (7012 JT), Chugoku Marine Paints (4617 JT), Toa Corp (1885 JT), Komatsu (6301 JT), Shizuoka Financial Group (5831 JT), Daiichi Kigenso (4082 JT), Kioxia (285A JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), Hoya (7741 JT), Advantest (6857 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT), Nitto Denko (6988 JT), Asteria (3853 JT), Densan Systems (4072 JT), ...

Joel Scheiman ... (+4)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 24 Oct: ATH to end a yo-yo week / Soaring memory prices / C...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, William Nestuk and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Nidec (6594 JT), Koa (6999 JT), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JT), TDK (6762 JT), Murata (6981 JT), Kioxia (285A JT), SanDisk (SNDK US), Ibiden (4062 JT), JX Advanced Materials (5016 JT), OpenAI (pvt), Arm Holdings (ARM US), SoftBank Group (9984 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), Intel (INTC US), Disco (6146 JT), Advantest (6857 JT), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), Resonac (4004 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Shin-Et...

Joel Scheiman ... (+5)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 23 Oct: Tech worries, rotation into old economy names / Vide...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Joel Scheiman, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Tags: Renesas (6723 JT), Tesla (TSLA US), Nexperia Holding (pvt), Sumco (3436 JT), Rorze (6323 JT), Kokusai Electric (6525 JT), Ferrotec (6890 JT), Adeka (4401 JT), Inpex (1605 JT), Namura Shipbuilding (7014 JT), SHI (6302 JT), Mitsui E&S (7003 JT), KHI (7012 JT), MHI (7011 JT), IHI (7013 JT), Asteria (3853 JT), Monex (8698 JT), Metaplanet (3350 JT), Future Corp (4722 JT), BayCurrent (6...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

The PSA Must Read Weekly Research Round-Up (week to Aug 10)

Inside the PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up you have:The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers (available upon request):Ahead of August 14th’s expected GDP number, we discuss Japan’s inflation story. Reports / Flash Notes Published This Week: Headlines at a Glance (full reports available upon request):1. Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity 2. Internet: Rakuten (4755) Q2 FY17 – A Decent Quarter but the Risk of Profit Volatility is High 3. Industrial Machinery: IHI (7013) – Still Engine-Driv...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 10th - Long week-end ahead/Toshiba files accounts/China'...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,729.74 (-¥8.97 / -0.05%); Topix ¥1,617.25 (-¥0.65 / -0.04%); ¥/$109.95Tags: Shiseido (4911), Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706), Japan Display (6740), W-Scope (6619), Yaskawa (6506), Daifuku (6383), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Honda (7267), Toyota (7203), Nissan (7201), Mazda (7261), Aisin Seiki (7259), Denso (6902), Koito (7276), IHI (7013), DeNA (2432)...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 9: North Korea/Olympus disenchantment/SoftBank questions...

PSA Today Aug 9: Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen  Nikkei ¥19,738.71 (-¥257.30 / -1.32%); Topix ¥1,617.90 (-¥17.42 / -1.07%); ¥/$109.98 Tags: Olympus (7733), SoftBank (9984), Sprint (S US), T-Mobile US (TMUS US), Charter Communications (CHTR US), Dish Network (DISH US), Gumi (3903), Square Enix (9684), Honda (7267), Suzuki (7269), Yamaha Motors (7272), Harley Davidson (HOG US), Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Nabtesco (6268), SMC (6273), IHI (7...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity

In October 2012, just as Shinzo Abe was stepping up to the plate as the new leader of the then opposition party, the LDP, a relatively unknown former cabinet minister, Fumio Kishida, took over as head of the Koga faction. While factions are a feature of any political party, they were hard-coded into the LDP by the multi-seat constituency system, whereby you could run up to five candidates per district, with a view to winning up to five seats. As a consequence, while seemingly aligned in the Diet...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

US Auto Sales June – The Japanese Big 3 Outperform

Key Points   US auto sales fall 3% YoY in June, with light truck sales up 4.1% YoY and passenger car sales down 13.2% YoY SAAR 16.51 mil, lowest since Apr 2005 Lower replacement demand, lower fleet sales, higher interest rates and increasing competition from cheaper second-hand cars continued to weigh on the auto market Incentives by the Japanese are higher than the Detroit 3   Toyota (7201) sales +2.1%, Honda (7267) +0.8%, Nissan (7201) +2.0% vs the Detroit 3 (which are all down)   Sub...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Honda (7267) FY17 Outlook – Relative Position to Improve under Chall...

Key Points  Honda produced strong results in FY16; partly due to the reversal of Takata (7312)-related recall expenses, but also on high production cost savings and positive volume contributions.   Honda’s FY17 guidance was below market consensus, on the back of cautious currency assumptions, expectations for sharply rising raw material prices, and deteriorating sales conditions in the US.  Although we agree that the market environment is becoming more challenging for automakers in general,...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Strategy: As the Nikkei Threatens to Break Out – What Stocks to Focu...

So far in 2017, Japanese equities have been involved in something of a tug-of-war. The oscillation in the yen / dollar has impacted on market direction; yet with each oscillation, there has been a steady creep forward; Topix is currently up 3.5% year-to-date in yen terms, and 5.0% in dollar terms.   That the market is up despite: The dollar having started the year at 117.55 and is actually down slightly as of March 10th, to 115.39, and The fact that foreigners have sold US$5bil of Japanese...

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