Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+3)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today 15 Dec: ATH for Topix as Nikkei falls on AI worries / Genki ...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Fanuc (6954 JT), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JT), Japan Steel Works (5631 JT), SoftBank Group (9984 JT), Nippon Steel (5401 JT), Aeon (8267 JT), East Japan Railway (9020 JT), Recruit (6098 JT), Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JT), Mercari (4385 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Subaru (7270 JT), Mazda Motor (7261 JT), Kioxia (285A JT), SanDisk (SNDK US), KLab (3656 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), KDD...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+7)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

The PSA Research Round-Up for Week to 12 December 2025

Weekly Comment Summary Has Japanese Manufacturing Got its Mojo Back? Next week sees the publication of the Q4 Tankan. Business confidence among Japanese manufacturers has been improving. Pelham Smithers considers whether the report might show an acceleration of that trend. PSA Weekly Contents at a Glance Reports / Flash Notes Summaries 1. The Economics and Implications of the Semiconductor, Data and AI Feedback Loop 2. Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JT) – Doubling OP Compan...

William Nestuk
  • William Nestuk

PSA Capital Goods / Electrical Equipment: Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JT...

Analyst William Nestuk thinks Mitsubishi Electric offers an attractive four-fold theme: (1) high-margin data centre [DC] work, (2) defence (including for overseas), (3) restructuring and (4) share buybacks. We see FY27 OP at least doubling that of FY23, which at that time was a record level. Strong cash flow generation should produce another share buyback and higher dividends.

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Global Semiconductors: The Economics and Implications of the Semic...

The history of semiconductors is a history of prices being driven down by technology acting on both the supply curve (via new equipment) and on the demand curve (via software), shifts that can get temporarily reversed by the creation of feedback loops, due to the ability of semiconductors to drive demand for other semiconductors. We believe that we are at the early stage of another one of those feedback loops, one caused by the increasing take-up of AI, and manifest in growing demand for AI serv...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+5)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 12 Dec: Topix ATH / Video games round-up / Smaregi Q2 FY26 b...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Thao Nguyen, Lindsay Whipp and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Oracle (ORCL US), Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JT), Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JT), Dowa Mining (5714 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Panasonic (6752 JT), Aisin Seiki (7259 JT), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Adeka (4401 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), Socionext (6526 JT), Advantest (6857 JT), Ohara Inc (5218 JT), W-Scope Chungju Plant [WCP] (393890 KS), S...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Trump Set to Pull out of Free Trade Agreement with Korea – Unfair fo...

President Trump threatens to raise pulling out of the Free Trade Agreement with Korea, KORUS, when he discusses the issue with his advisers next week. This follows complaints by Mr Trump earlier this year when he noted that American automakers struggle to sell cars in Korea, while Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors seem to be having an easy ride in the US.In our view, there is little to complain about, if you look at the trade data and sales developments in detail: Both countries now offer free entry...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos: Time to Panic about China EV Sales Quota? – Automakers Ho...

The German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Tuesday August 29th that China’s regulators will soon release some final, softened rules regarding 2018 sales quotas for electric vehicles (EVs). The currently-known draft outlines that OEMs have to generate ‘green credits’ equivalent to 8% of their total auto sales in 2018 (10% in 2019, 12% in 2020). For instance, an automaker selling 1mil cars a year in China would need to generate 80,000 credits; credit points are highe...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Global Strategy: Have We Passed Peak FANG?

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a l...

Joel Scheiman
  • Joel Scheiman

Fujifilm Holdings (4901) FY17 Q1 Results Meeting – Cameras Push Earn...

Key Points Fujifilm explained at its earnings meeting that the Imaging and Information Segments combined beat its guidance thanks to strong momentum for cameras but made no changes to its guidance. Documents (Fuji Xerox) again appeared to disappoint, although management noted that Q1 results were only slightly below internal targets. Management appears confident that conditions will improve by H2, boosted in part by its supply of more than ten new office product models this year to the newly...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 14th: Strong Yen/June GDP +1.0% QoQ, +4.0% Annualized/To...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,537.10 (-¥192.64 / -0.98%); Topix ¥1,599.06 (-¥18.19 / -1.12%); ¥/$109.56Tags: Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Hon Hai (2317 TT), Sony (6758), Recruit Holdings (6098), Trend Micro (4704), istyle (3660), Avex (7860), Ferrotec (6890)Strong yen sends market lower after holidayNew highs for Yaskawa and Daifuku – again June GDP up 1.0% QoQ, 4.0% annual...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+3)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today 15 Dec: ATH for Topix as Nikkei falls on AI worries / Genki ...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Fanuc (6954 JT), Yaskawa Electric (6506 JT), Japan Steel Works (5631 JT), SoftBank Group (9984 JT), Nippon Steel (5401 JT), Aeon (8267 JT), East Japan Railway (9020 JT), Recruit (6098 JT), Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JT), Mercari (4385 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Subaru (7270 JT), Mazda Motor (7261 JT), Kioxia (285A JT), SanDisk (SNDK US), KLab (3656 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), KDD...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+7)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

The PSA Research Round-Up for Week to 12 December 2025

Weekly Comment Summary Has Japanese Manufacturing Got its Mojo Back? Next week sees the publication of the Q4 Tankan. Business confidence among Japanese manufacturers has been improving. Pelham Smithers considers whether the report might show an acceleration of that trend. PSA Weekly Contents at a Glance Reports / Flash Notes Summaries 1. The Economics and Implications of the Semiconductor, Data and AI Feedback Loop 2. Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JT) – Doubling OP Compan...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+5)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 12 Dec: Topix ATH / Video games round-up / Smaregi Q2 FY26 b...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Thao Nguyen, Lindsay Whipp and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Oracle (ORCL US), Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JT), Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JT), Dowa Mining (5714 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Panasonic (6752 JT), Aisin Seiki (7259 JT), Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JT), Adeka (4401 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), Socionext (6526 JT), Advantest (6857 JT), Ohara Inc (5218 JT), W-Scope Chungju Plant [WCP] (393890 KS), S...

Julie Boote ... (+4)
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 11 Dec: AI infrastructure investment concerns send Japan low...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen and Lindsay Whipp Tags: Oracle Corp (ORCL US), SoftBank Group (9984 JT), JX Advanced Materials (5016 JT), Mitsui Kinzoku (5706 JT), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JT), Screen Holdings (7735 JT), Advantest (6857 JT), Ebara (6361 JT), Toppan Holdings (7911 JT), Anycolor (5032 JT), Cover Corp (5253 JT), Accrete (4395 JT), Forward Edge AI (pvt), Nintendo (7974 JT), Microsoft (MSFT US), SanDisk (SNDK US), Seagate (STX US), Apple (AAPL US...

Julie Boote ... (+4)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 10 Dec: Mixed market, metal plays shine / Oct global semi de...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Tags: Dowa Mining (5714 JT), Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JT), Mitsui Kinzoku (5706 JT), Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713 JT), Toho Titanium (5727 JT), Toho Zinc (5707 JT), Sumitomo Electric (5802 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), JX Advanced Materials (5016 JT), Adeka (4401 JT), Kioxia (285A JT), Sony (6758 JT), Lasertec (6920 JT), Disco (6146 JT), Kokusai Electric (6525 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Square Enix (9684 J...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

The PSA Must Read Weekly Research Round-Up (week to Aug 10)

Inside the PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up you have:The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers (available upon request):Ahead of August 14th’s expected GDP number, we discuss Japan’s inflation story. Reports / Flash Notes Published This Week: Headlines at a Glance (full reports available upon request):1. Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity 2. Internet: Rakuten (4755) Q2 FY17 – A Decent Quarter but the Risk of Profit Volatility is High 3. Industrial Machinery: IHI (7013) – Still Engine-Driv...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 10th - Long week-end ahead/Toshiba files accounts/China'...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,729.74 (-¥8.97 / -0.05%); Topix ¥1,617.25 (-¥0.65 / -0.04%); ¥/$109.95Tags: Shiseido (4911), Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706), Japan Display (6740), W-Scope (6619), Yaskawa (6506), Daifuku (6383), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Honda (7267), Toyota (7203), Nissan (7201), Mazda (7261), Aisin Seiki (7259), Denso (6902), Koito (7276), IHI (7013), DeNA (2432)...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 9: North Korea/Olympus disenchantment/SoftBank questions...

PSA Today Aug 9: Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen  Nikkei ¥19,738.71 (-¥257.30 / -1.32%); Topix ¥1,617.90 (-¥17.42 / -1.07%); ¥/$109.98 Tags: Olympus (7733), SoftBank (9984), Sprint (S US), T-Mobile US (TMUS US), Charter Communications (CHTR US), Dish Network (DISH US), Gumi (3903), Square Enix (9684), Honda (7267), Suzuki (7269), Yamaha Motors (7272), Harley Davidson (HOG US), Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Nabtesco (6268), SMC (6273), IHI (7...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity

In October 2012, just as Shinzo Abe was stepping up to the plate as the new leader of the then opposition party, the LDP, a relatively unknown former cabinet minister, Fumio Kishida, took over as head of the Koga faction. While factions are a feature of any political party, they were hard-coded into the LDP by the multi-seat constituency system, whereby you could run up to five candidates per district, with a view to winning up to five seats. As a consequence, while seemingly aligned in the Diet...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

US Auto Sales June – The Japanese Big 3 Outperform

Key Points   US auto sales fall 3% YoY in June, with light truck sales up 4.1% YoY and passenger car sales down 13.2% YoY SAAR 16.51 mil, lowest since Apr 2005 Lower replacement demand, lower fleet sales, higher interest rates and increasing competition from cheaper second-hand cars continued to weigh on the auto market Incentives by the Japanese are higher than the Detroit 3   Toyota (7201) sales +2.1%, Honda (7267) +0.8%, Nissan (7201) +2.0% vs the Detroit 3 (which are all down)   Sub...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Honda (7267) FY17 Outlook – Relative Position to Improve under Chall...

Key Points  Honda produced strong results in FY16; partly due to the reversal of Takata (7312)-related recall expenses, but also on high production cost savings and positive volume contributions.   Honda’s FY17 guidance was below market consensus, on the back of cautious currency assumptions, expectations for sharply rising raw material prices, and deteriorating sales conditions in the US.  Although we agree that the market environment is becoming more challenging for automakers in general,...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Strategy: As the Nikkei Threatens to Break Out – What Stocks to Focu...

So far in 2017, Japanese equities have been involved in something of a tug-of-war. The oscillation in the yen / dollar has impacted on market direction; yet with each oscillation, there has been a steady creep forward; Topix is currently up 3.5% year-to-date in yen terms, and 5.0% in dollar terms.   That the market is up despite: The dollar having started the year at 117.55 and is actually down slightly as of March 10th, to 115.39, and The fact that foreigners have sold US$5bil of Japanese...

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