Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+6)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Nia Dokova
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 21 Nov: Nvidia-related retreat / Key macro releases soon / S...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen, William Nestuk, Hiroyuki Terada and Nia Dokova Tags: Nvidia (NVDA US), Furukawa Electric (5801 JT), Sumitomo Electric (5802 JT), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JT), Socionext (6526 JT), Hoya (7741 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), Tokyo Gas (9531 JT), M3 Inc (2413 JT), DeNA (2432 JT), Kadokawa (9468 JT), Sony (6758 JT), LY Corp (4689 JT), BASE Inc (4477 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), Tencent (700 HK), ), Lightspeed (pvt), Capcom (9697 JT), KT...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Media & Entertainment: Nexon’s (3695 JT) Fortunes Looking Up

Pelham Smithers is encouraged by news that Nexon’s ARC Raiders is back on track and could provide a boost to earnings in 2025.

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+4)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 20 Nov: Bobbing in strong currents / An extraction shooter c...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Shimizu Construction (1803 JT), Dentsu (4324 JT), Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JT), Sompo (8630 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Kadokawa (9468 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Akatsuki (3932 JT), Koei Tecmo (3635 JT), DeNA (2432 JT), Nexon (3659 JT), Seven & I (3382 JT), Tokyo Gas (9531 JT), Kobayashi Pharma (4967 JT), Konami (9766 JT), GungHo Online Entertainment (3765 JT), Mixi (2121 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 ...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Media & Entertainment: Sony (6758 JT) Reportedly in Talks to Buy K...

According to Reuters [19 Nov], Sony is in discussions to buy Japanese publisher Kadokawa. The news sent Kadokawa shares limit up (+23%) to an all-time high. Sony has long been interested in different parts of Kadokawa, and in recent years has formed a capital alliance with Kadokawa to co-develop IP (in conjunction with CyberAgent), as well as taking a stake in FromSoftware. However, the idea that Sony would acquire the whole of Kadokawa is something of a surprise, given the bits-and-pieces natur...

Julie Boote ... (+5)
  • Julie Boote
  • Nia Dokova
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 19 Nov: Higher rate concerns ease / Sony and Kadokawa / Nide...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen, William Nestuk and Nia Dokova Tags: Nvidia (NVDA US), Fujikura (5803 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Supermicro (SMCI US), ASML (ASML NA), Lasertec (6920 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Kadokawa (9468 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Astellas (4503 JT), GMO Financial Gate (4051 JT), GA Technologies (3491 JT), BASE Inc (4477 JT), Net Protections (7383 JT), CyberAgent (4751 JT), Capcom (9697 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), Ubiso...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Trump Set to Pull out of Free Trade Agreement with Korea – Unfair fo...

President Trump threatens to raise pulling out of the Free Trade Agreement with Korea, KORUS, when he discusses the issue with his advisers next week. This follows complaints by Mr Trump earlier this year when he noted that American automakers struggle to sell cars in Korea, while Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors seem to be having an easy ride in the US.In our view, there is little to complain about, if you look at the trade data and sales developments in detail: Both countries now offer free entry...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos: Time to Panic about China EV Sales Quota? – Automakers Ho...

The German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Tuesday August 29th that China’s regulators will soon release some final, softened rules regarding 2018 sales quotas for electric vehicles (EVs). The currently-known draft outlines that OEMs have to generate ‘green credits’ equivalent to 8% of their total auto sales in 2018 (10% in 2019, 12% in 2020). For instance, an automaker selling 1mil cars a year in China would need to generate 80,000 credits; credit points are highe...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Global Strategy: Have We Passed Peak FANG?

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a l...

Joel Scheiman
  • Joel Scheiman

Fujifilm Holdings (4901) FY17 Q1 Results Meeting – Cameras Push Earn...

Key Points Fujifilm explained at its earnings meeting that the Imaging and Information Segments combined beat its guidance thanks to strong momentum for cameras but made no changes to its guidance. Documents (Fuji Xerox) again appeared to disappoint, although management noted that Q1 results were only slightly below internal targets. Management appears confident that conditions will improve by H2, boosted in part by its supply of more than ten new office product models this year to the newly...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 14th: Strong Yen/June GDP +1.0% QoQ, +4.0% Annualized/To...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,537.10 (-¥192.64 / -0.98%); Topix ¥1,599.06 (-¥18.19 / -1.12%); ¥/$109.56Tags: Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Hon Hai (2317 TT), Sony (6758), Recruit Holdings (6098), Trend Micro (4704), istyle (3660), Avex (7860), Ferrotec (6890)Strong yen sends market lower after holidayNew highs for Yaskawa and Daifuku – again June GDP up 1.0% QoQ, 4.0% annual...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+6)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Nia Dokova
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 21 Nov: Nvidia-related retreat / Key macro releases soon / S...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen, William Nestuk, Hiroyuki Terada and Nia Dokova Tags: Nvidia (NVDA US), Furukawa Electric (5801 JT), Sumitomo Electric (5802 JT), Taiyo Yuden (6976 JT), Socionext (6526 JT), Hoya (7741 JT), Fujikura (5803 JT), Tokyo Gas (9531 JT), M3 Inc (2413 JT), DeNA (2432 JT), Kadokawa (9468 JT), Sony (6758 JT), LY Corp (4689 JT), BASE Inc (4477 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), Tencent (700 HK), ), Lightspeed (pvt), Capcom (9697 JT), KT...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+4)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 20 Nov: Bobbing in strong currents / An extraction shooter c...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: Shimizu Construction (1803 JT), Dentsu (4324 JT), Tokio Marine Holdings (8766 JT), Sompo (8630 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Kadokawa (9468 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Akatsuki (3932 JT), Koei Tecmo (3635 JT), DeNA (2432 JT), Nexon (3659 JT), Seven & I (3382 JT), Tokyo Gas (9531 JT), Kobayashi Pharma (4967 JT), Konami (9766 JT), GungHo Online Entertainment (3765 JT), Mixi (2121 JT), Toyota Motor (7203 ...

Julie Boote ... (+5)
  • Julie Boote
  • Nia Dokova
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 19 Nov: Higher rate concerns ease / Sony and Kadokawa / Nide...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Thao Nguyen, William Nestuk and Nia Dokova Tags: Nvidia (NVDA US), Fujikura (5803 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), Supermicro (SMCI US), ASML (ASML NA), Lasertec (6920 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Kadokawa (9468 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Astellas (4503 JT), GMO Financial Gate (4051 JT), GA Technologies (3491 JT), BASE Inc (4477 JT), Net Protections (7383 JT), CyberAgent (4751 JT), Capcom (9697 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Square Enix (9684 JT), Ubiso...

Hiroyuki Terada ... (+3)
  • Hiroyuki Terada
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today 18 Nov: Below pre-Trump win levels / Sep machinery orders / ...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote and Hiroyuki Terada Tags: PeptiDream (4587 JT), Chugai Pharmaceutical (4519 JT), Dentsu (4324 JT), DeNA (2432 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Mixi (2121 JT), Konami (9766 JT), CyberAgent (4751 JT), Appier (4180 JT), Datasection (3905 JT), Nvidia (NVDA US), Lasertec (6920 JT), Renesas (6723 JT), Screen (7735 JT), Tokyo Electron (8035 JT), M3 Inc (2413 JT), Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JT), Mercari (4385 JT), Metaplanet (3350 JT), Fuji Soft (974...

Joel Scheiman ... (+5)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Nia Dokova
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today 15 Nov: Market rise / Slowing BoJ JGB buying? / Japan Q3 GDP...

PSA Today Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, Joel Scheiman, Lindsay Whipp and Nia Dokova Tags: Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (8316 JT), Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JT), Japan Post Bank (7182 JT), Japan Post Insurance (7181 JT), Japan Steel Works (5631 JT), Disco (6146 JT), Screen (7735 JT), Rakuten (4755 JT), M3 Inc (2413 JT), LY Corp (4689 JT), Dentsu Group (4324 JT), Appier (4180 JT), Nissan Motor (7201 JT), Effissimo, Asahi Kasei (3407 JT), Netflix (NFLX US), Sony (67...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

The PSA Must Read Weekly Research Round-Up (week to Aug 10)

Inside the PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up you have:The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers (available upon request):Ahead of August 14th’s expected GDP number, we discuss Japan’s inflation story. Reports / Flash Notes Published This Week: Headlines at a Glance (full reports available upon request):1. Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity 2. Internet: Rakuten (4755) Q2 FY17 – A Decent Quarter but the Risk of Profit Volatility is High 3. Industrial Machinery: IHI (7013) – Still Engine-Driv...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 10th - Long week-end ahead/Toshiba files accounts/China'...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,729.74 (-¥8.97 / -0.05%); Topix ¥1,617.25 (-¥0.65 / -0.04%); ¥/$109.95Tags: Shiseido (4911), Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706), Japan Display (6740), W-Scope (6619), Yaskawa (6506), Daifuku (6383), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Honda (7267), Toyota (7203), Nissan (7201), Mazda (7261), Aisin Seiki (7259), Denso (6902), Koito (7276), IHI (7013), DeNA (2432)...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 9: North Korea/Olympus disenchantment/SoftBank questions...

PSA Today Aug 9: Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen  Nikkei ¥19,738.71 (-¥257.30 / -1.32%); Topix ¥1,617.90 (-¥17.42 / -1.07%); ¥/$109.98 Tags: Olympus (7733), SoftBank (9984), Sprint (S US), T-Mobile US (TMUS US), Charter Communications (CHTR US), Dish Network (DISH US), Gumi (3903), Square Enix (9684), Honda (7267), Suzuki (7269), Yamaha Motors (7272), Harley Davidson (HOG US), Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Nabtesco (6268), SMC (6273), IHI (7...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity

In October 2012, just as Shinzo Abe was stepping up to the plate as the new leader of the then opposition party, the LDP, a relatively unknown former cabinet minister, Fumio Kishida, took over as head of the Koga faction. While factions are a feature of any political party, they were hard-coded into the LDP by the multi-seat constituency system, whereby you could run up to five candidates per district, with a view to winning up to five seats. As a consequence, while seemingly aligned in the Diet...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

US Auto Sales June – The Japanese Big 3 Outperform

Key Points   US auto sales fall 3% YoY in June, with light truck sales up 4.1% YoY and passenger car sales down 13.2% YoY SAAR 16.51 mil, lowest since Apr 2005 Lower replacement demand, lower fleet sales, higher interest rates and increasing competition from cheaper second-hand cars continued to weigh on the auto market Incentives by the Japanese are higher than the Detroit 3   Toyota (7201) sales +2.1%, Honda (7267) +0.8%, Nissan (7201) +2.0% vs the Detroit 3 (which are all down)   Sub...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Honda (7267) FY17 Outlook – Relative Position to Improve under Chall...

Key Points  Honda produced strong results in FY16; partly due to the reversal of Takata (7312)-related recall expenses, but also on high production cost savings and positive volume contributions.   Honda’s FY17 guidance was below market consensus, on the back of cautious currency assumptions, expectations for sharply rising raw material prices, and deteriorating sales conditions in the US.  Although we agree that the market environment is becoming more challenging for automakers in general,...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Strategy: As the Nikkei Threatens to Break Out – What Stocks to Focu...

So far in 2017, Japanese equities have been involved in something of a tug-of-war. The oscillation in the yen / dollar has impacted on market direction; yet with each oscillation, there has been a steady creep forward; Topix is currently up 3.5% year-to-date in yen terms, and 5.0% in dollar terms.   That the market is up despite: The dollar having started the year at 117.55 and is actually down slightly as of March 10th, to 115.39, and The fact that foreigners have sold US$5bil of Japanese...

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