Pelham Smithers Associates Ltd

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

PSA produces both company and sector reports. The focus of PSA’s research is to identify winners and losers as new technologies impact the top and bottom lines of corporations. Critical to our research is the clear explanation of how these new technologies work and how they impact companies and industries. 

The founding partners have worked closely together for twenty years and the team has more than doubled in size since 2012. 

Joel Scheiman ... (+6)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

The PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up for the week ending 2 Dec 2022

Weekly Comment Summary The Bank of Japan may, finally, be getting nominal GDP to grow. That is particularly good news for Japan’s healthcare sector, as Pelham Smithers explains. PSA Company Visits, Tours, and Interviews • Visited: TDK (6762 JT), Showa Denko (4004 JT), UBE Corp (4208 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT) • Conference Calls with: ExaWizards (4259 JT), email Q&A with Sansan (4443 JT) • Presentations at: Murata (6981 JT), Zeon Corp (4205 JT), Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JT), Asahi Kasei’s (...

Julie Boote ... (+3)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 2 Dec: Unhelpful USA data plus a strong yen weaken market / ...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote and Thao Nguyen Tags: CyberAgent (4751 JT), Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JT), Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JT), Astellas (4503 JT), Rohm (6963 JT), BASiC Semiconductor, Nissan Motor (7201 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Konami (9766 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Microsoft (MSFT US), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Honda Motor (7267 JT), Mazda (7261 JT), Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JT) Main Points • US data, strong yen send Japan shares lower • Japanese c...

Joel Scheiman ... (+5)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 1 Dec: Tech rallies on strong yen / SPE outlook / 3Q corpor...

Main Points • Yen strength, global economy concerns limit Japan rally to tech • Might 2023 be the low point for SPE sales in the 2020s? • 3Q corporate software spend +27% YoY • Tokyo Ohka still seeing resilient condition • Komatsu and HCM sag on strong yen

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Pharma: Eisai’s (4523 JT) Lecanemab Results Presentation

Eisai (4523 JT) presented the results of its Clarity AD trials for lecanemab to an Alzheimer’s Disease conference in San Francisco on 29 Nov. Unsurprisingly, since it met its primary and secondary endpoints, the drug would appear to work. The only problem is the issue of “Why doesn’t it work better”? And the answer to that is “Actually, it might, but the trial ended too soon”.

Julie Boote ... (+4)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 30 Nov: Main inputs for the day are HK's gains, weak product...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Tags: Trend Micro (4704 JT), Hoya (7741 JT), Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JT), Eisai (4523 JT), Honda (7267 JT), Mazda (7261 JT), Mercari (4385 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), IHI (7013 JT), MHI (7011 JT), KHI (7012 JT), SMC (6273 JT), Omron (6645 JT), Keyence (6861 JT) Main Points • Tokyo limits losses on HK gains, as industrial production disappoints • Lecanemab “works” part II • Nidec expands its machine tool busines...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Trump Set to Pull out of Free Trade Agreement with Korea – Unfair fo...

President Trump threatens to raise pulling out of the Free Trade Agreement with Korea, KORUS, when he discusses the issue with his advisers next week. This follows complaints by Mr Trump earlier this year when he noted that American automakers struggle to sell cars in Korea, while Hyundai Motors and Kia Motors seem to be having an easy ride in the US.In our view, there is little to complain about, if you look at the trade data and sales developments in detail: Both countries now offer free entry...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

PSA Autos: Time to Panic about China EV Sales Quota? – Automakers Ho...

The German newspaper the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported on Tuesday August 29th that China’s regulators will soon release some final, softened rules regarding 2018 sales quotas for electric vehicles (EVs). The currently-known draft outlines that OEMs have to generate ‘green credits’ equivalent to 8% of their total auto sales in 2018 (10% in 2019, 12% in 2020). For instance, an automaker selling 1mil cars a year in China would need to generate 80,000 credits; credit points are highe...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Global Strategy: Have We Passed Peak FANG?

The stock market loves a collective. Ever since the "Nifty 50" in the early '70s, groups of winners have been bandied together. In the 1990s, we had the "dot coms", stocks that were supposedly winners from Web 1.0. As that was going on, Japan had its own "Nifty 50" of blue chip export names. In the 2000s, we had the Four Horsemen, a group that has morphed, a decade later, into FANG. One of the first signs of difficulty with a collective is when the market can't decide on the components. With a l...

Joel Scheiman
  • Joel Scheiman

Fujifilm Holdings (4901) FY17 Q1 Results Meeting – Cameras Push Earn...

Key Points Fujifilm explained at its earnings meeting that the Imaging and Information Segments combined beat its guidance thanks to strong momentum for cameras but made no changes to its guidance. Documents (Fuji Xerox) again appeared to disappoint, although management noted that Q1 results were only slightly below internal targets. Management appears confident that conditions will improve by H2, boosted in part by its supply of more than ten new office product models this year to the newly...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 14th: Strong Yen/June GDP +1.0% QoQ, +4.0% Annualized/To...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,537.10 (-¥192.64 / -0.98%); Topix ¥1,599.06 (-¥18.19 / -1.12%); ¥/$109.56Tags: Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Hon Hai (2317 TT), Sony (6758), Recruit Holdings (6098), Trend Micro (4704), istyle (3660), Avex (7860), Ferrotec (6890)Strong yen sends market lower after holidayNew highs for Yaskawa and Daifuku – again June GDP up 1.0% QoQ, 4.0% annual...

Joel Scheiman ... (+6)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

The PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up for the week ending 2 Dec 2022

Weekly Comment Summary The Bank of Japan may, finally, be getting nominal GDP to grow. That is particularly good news for Japan’s healthcare sector, as Pelham Smithers explains. PSA Company Visits, Tours, and Interviews • Visited: TDK (6762 JT), Showa Denko (4004 JT), UBE Corp (4208 JT), Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (4186 JT) • Conference Calls with: ExaWizards (4259 JT), email Q&A with Sansan (4443 JT) • Presentations at: Murata (6981 JT), Zeon Corp (4205 JT), Mitsui Chemicals (4183 JT), Asahi Kasei’s (...

Julie Boote ... (+3)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 2 Dec: Unhelpful USA data plus a strong yen weaken market / ...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote and Thao Nguyen Tags: CyberAgent (4751 JT), Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JT), Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JT), Astellas (4503 JT), Rohm (6963 JT), BASiC Semiconductor, Nissan Motor (7201 JT), Sony (6758 JT), Nintendo (7974 JT), Konami (9766 JT), Bandai Namco (7832 JT), Microsoft (MSFT US), Toyota Motor (7203 JT), Honda Motor (7267 JT), Mazda (7261 JT), Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JT) Main Points • US data, strong yen send Japan shares lower • Japanese c...

Joel Scheiman ... (+5)
  • Joel Scheiman
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 1 Dec: Tech rallies on strong yen / SPE outlook / 3Q corpor...

Main Points • Yen strength, global economy concerns limit Japan rally to tech • Might 2023 be the low point for SPE sales in the 2020s? • 3Q corporate software spend +27% YoY • Tokyo Ohka still seeing resilient condition • Komatsu and HCM sag on strong yen

Julie Boote ... (+4)
  • Julie Boote
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen
  • William Nestuk

PSA Today 30 Nov: Main inputs for the day are HK's gains, weak product...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Tags: Trend Micro (4704 JT), Hoya (7741 JT), Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099 JT), Eisai (4523 JT), Honda (7267 JT), Mazda (7261 JT), Mercari (4385 JT), Nidec (6594 JT), IHI (7013 JT), MHI (7011 JT), KHI (7012 JT), SMC (6273 JT), Omron (6645 JT), Keyence (6861 JT) Main Points • Tokyo limits losses on HK gains, as industrial production disappoints • Lecanemab “works” part II • Nidec expands its machine tool busines...

Julie Boote ... (+4)
  • Julie Boote
  • Lindsay Whipp
  • Pelham Smithers
  • Thao Nguyen

PSA Today 29 Nov: Lower again / Global video game consoles / Sony's im...

Main Points • Japan follows Wall Street lower despite Hong Kong and China market rebounds • Global video game console sales +25% YoY in week to 19 November • Sony to Supply iPhone 15 with image sensors • Second death linked to lecanemab trial • What’s up with NRI’s down-trending shares?

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

The PSA Must Read Weekly Research Round-Up (week to Aug 10)

Inside the PSA Japan Weekly Research Round-Up you have:The Weekly Comment by Pelham Smithers (available upon request):Ahead of August 14th’s expected GDP number, we discuss Japan’s inflation story. Reports / Flash Notes Published This Week: Headlines at a Glance (full reports available upon request):1. Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity 2. Internet: Rakuten (4755) Q2 FY17 – A Decent Quarter but the Risk of Profit Volatility is High 3. Industrial Machinery: IHI (7013) – Still Engine-Driv...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 10th - Long week-end ahead/Toshiba files accounts/China'...

Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Joel Scheiman, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen Nikkei ¥19,729.74 (-¥8.97 / -0.05%); Topix ¥1,617.25 (-¥0.65 / -0.04%); ¥/$109.95Tags: Shiseido (4911), Mitsui Mining & Smelting (5706), Japan Display (6740), W-Scope (6619), Yaskawa (6506), Daifuku (6383), Toshiba (6502), Western Digital (WDC US), SK Hynix (000660 KS), Honda (7267), Toyota (7203), Nissan (7201), Mazda (7261), Aisin Seiki (7259), Denso (6902), Koito (7276), IHI (7013), DeNA (2432)...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

PSA Today Aug 9: North Korea/Olympus disenchantment/SoftBank questions...

PSA Today Aug 9: Japan Market Comment by Pelham Smithers, Julie Boote, William Nestuk and Thao Nguyen  Nikkei ¥19,738.71 (-¥257.30 / -1.32%); Topix ¥1,617.90 (-¥17.42 / -1.07%); ¥/$109.98 Tags: Olympus (7733), SoftBank (9984), Sprint (S US), T-Mobile US (TMUS US), Charter Communications (CHTR US), Dish Network (DISH US), Gumi (3903), Square Enix (9684), Honda (7267), Suzuki (7269), Yamaha Motors (7272), Harley Davidson (HOG US), Daifuku (6383), Yaskawa (6506), Nabtesco (6268), SMC (6273), IHI (7...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Japanese Politics – Abe’s Waning Popularity

In October 2012, just as Shinzo Abe was stepping up to the plate as the new leader of the then opposition party, the LDP, a relatively unknown former cabinet minister, Fumio Kishida, took over as head of the Koga faction. While factions are a feature of any political party, they were hard-coded into the LDP by the multi-seat constituency system, whereby you could run up to five candidates per district, with a view to winning up to five seats. As a consequence, while seemingly aligned in the Diet...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

US Auto Sales June – The Japanese Big 3 Outperform

Key Points   US auto sales fall 3% YoY in June, with light truck sales up 4.1% YoY and passenger car sales down 13.2% YoY SAAR 16.51 mil, lowest since Apr 2005 Lower replacement demand, lower fleet sales, higher interest rates and increasing competition from cheaper second-hand cars continued to weigh on the auto market Incentives by the Japanese are higher than the Detroit 3   Toyota (7201) sales +2.1%, Honda (7267) +0.8%, Nissan (7201) +2.0% vs the Detroit 3 (which are all down)   Sub...

Julie Boote
  • Julie Boote

Honda (7267) FY17 Outlook – Relative Position to Improve under Chall...

Key Points  Honda produced strong results in FY16; partly due to the reversal of Takata (7312)-related recall expenses, but also on high production cost savings and positive volume contributions.   Honda’s FY17 guidance was below market consensus, on the back of cautious currency assumptions, expectations for sharply rising raw material prices, and deteriorating sales conditions in the US.  Although we agree that the market environment is becoming more challenging for automakers in general,...

Pelham Smithers
  • Pelham Smithers

Strategy: As the Nikkei Threatens to Break Out – What Stocks to Focu...

So far in 2017, Japanese equities have been involved in something of a tug-of-war. The oscillation in the yen / dollar has impacted on market direction; yet with each oscillation, there has been a steady creep forward; Topix is currently up 3.5% year-to-date in yen terms, and 5.0% in dollar terms.   That the market is up despite: The dollar having started the year at 117.55 and is actually down slightly as of March 10th, to 115.39, and The fact that foreigners have sold US$5bil of Japanese...

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