Viaplay Group (Sell, TP: SEK0.95) - Low conviction in its story

Following the Q4 results (2023 FCF of SEK-3.5bn) and completion of the recapitalisation in February 2024 (SEK4bn equity raise), we have cut our target price to SEK0.95 (previous ‘post-money’ target price SEK1.30, equivalent to SEK5.30 ‘pre-money’) and reiterate our SELL. We believe the retransformation remains associated with fairly high risk (2026e net debt of >2bn) and restoring investor confidence will be challenging.

Viaplay Group (Sell, TP: SEK5.30) - Upcoming SEK4bn equity injection

After tough consumer trends, content cost inflation, a focus on volumes over value and failure of its international expansion (partly financed by a SEK4bn equity raise in early 2021), Viaplay announced a recapitalisation plan including a SEK4bn equity injection at SEK1/share with 4.5bn new shares (EGM on 10 January). We have cut our target price to SEK5.3 (equivalent to ‘post-money’ SEK1.3; our previous target price was SEK30) and downgraded to SELL (HOLD).

Viaplay Group (Hold, TP: SEK30.00) - Preparing for a long winter

We have upgraded to HOLD (SELL) but cut our target price to SEK30 (35) after the recent poor share price. Soft 2024e Nordic EBIT has been well flagged by Viaplay since the Q2 report and signs of mitigating factors (e.g. divestments to improve the balance sheet) would lend support, although an equity raise remains probable in our view. With three key industry participants on board, we believe the outlook for a long-term solution has improved.

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Viaplay Group (Sell, TP: SEK35.00) - Even Nordic EBIT disappearing

We have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to SEK35 (70) after the surprisingly negative 2024 guidance including a Nordic EBIT loss. We see rising financial risk and doubt that potential near-term (stressed) divestment and sublicensing deals could stave off a potential equity raise. With record-low investor confidence (business model, growth outlook and balance sheet), in our view, potential 2025e earnings recovery is too far away and we expect the stock to remain under pressure.

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Viaplay Group (Hold, TP: SEK70.00) - Too many bold ambitions

We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to SEK70 (370) following the sharply reduced 2023e outlook and growing balance-sheet risk (net debt/Nordic EBITDA >3x). CEO Jensen was replaced by Madsen Linedmann with immediate effect. We have cut our 2023–2024e EPS by 65–41%. Despite our growth scenario for 2024e, given the higher financial risk we expect the share-price outlook to remain muted.

Viaplay Group (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Burden of proof, still manageable

We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK370 (390), reflecting management’s muted comments about the Q2 subs outlook and our trimmed 2024e adj. EBIT forecast. Viaplay has shown good resilience so far to the challenging consumer environment, and we still find attraction in the investment case of earnings leverage from H2e owing to pricing, further subs growth and a relatively fixed cost base.

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Viaplay Group (Buy, TP: SEK390.00) - Strong ARPU growth story for H2e

We reiterate our BUY and SEK390 target price ahead of the Q1 report (due at 07:30 CET on 25 April). We expect adj. EBIT of SEK-306m, with International losses not yet offset by ARPU (pricing) and subs growth, a scenario we expect to be visible in the coming quarters. The outlook with improved leverage in H2e and 2024e (break-even International) should support the shares and our adj. EBIT forecasts are virtually unchanged.

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Viaplay Group (Buy, TP: SEK390.00) - Resilience ahead of earnings rise

We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK390 (370) after Viaplay’s Q4 results and outlook showed early signs of resilience, implying reduced risk of H1 subs growth disappointments. We continue to like the case, which we expect to improve materially when focus shifts to H2 earnings (full effect from ongoing price increases, ARPU growth and stable costs), and what we forecast to be a sizeable 2024 earnings rise.

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Viaplay Group (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Not just a drive to survive

We reiterate our BUY and SEK370 target price ahead of the Q4 results (due at 07:30 CET on 14 February) to include a SEK263m adj. EBIT loss but on-track subs growth (c80% YOY). We have cut our 2023e EBIT by 10% to reflect the Nordic revenue growth guidance (12–15% YOY) but remain above consensus and expect signs of resilience (pricing power and subs growth along with stabilising content costs) to support the case ahead.

Viaplay Group - CMD: demonstrating agility

Focus on core markets, pricing power, and cost savings Estimates intact BUY: attractive valuation, substantial LT potential

Viaplay Group (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Content still king after wing cli...

The market is duly worried about the outlook (consumer risk) and Viaplay had to lower its Q4 guidance for the Nordics. We have cut our 2023e EBIT by 19% reflecting these trends, but still see an attractive growth story. We expect Viaplay to ease at least some of the near-term key concerns at the upcoming CMD (9 November) e.g. with a SEK1bn cost-saving programme. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK370 (450).

Viaplay Group - Lower expectations, higher uncertainty

Q3 offered almost only bad news We lower our LT estimates by ~10% BUY: still good upside, but lower conviction

Viaplay Group - Q3: Nordic weakness and lowered guidance

Sales -5% vs. consensus, core EBIT above Big miss in Viaplay due to weaker Nordics Stock should trade down at least 5%

Viaplay Group - Heads-up for Q3’22 report 25 October

Viaplay will report its Q3 on Tuesday 25 October at 07:30 CET. A conference call will follow at 09:00 CET, webcast: -server.com/mmc/p/d3utyfr3.

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