China’s PV insurance registrations grew 26% yoy, 40% mom and 22% wow in the 25th week of 2025, with a PEV market share of 51.6%. BYD’s sales surge on discounts is unsustainable, and long-term growth will rely on product innovations and overseas expansion. China’s vehicle exports jumped 21% yoy in May, with EVs up 43% and PHEVs soaring 134%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Desay SV and Tuopu.
Trade deal in focus. Notwithstanding the 90-day truce on tariff escalation, it is still a 50/50 if there will be a “Big Beautiful Deal” between the US and China. The US is steadfast in wanting to cap China’s growth and restricting her access to the latest technology, while China is making a firm stand on its economic rights. We expect that higher US tariffs on Chinese goods are unavoidable, likely closer to the 60% mark, if Trump were to be seen making a credible move to onshore production in ...
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 24% yoy, 18% mom and 27% wow in the 24th week of 2025, with a PEV market share of 55.1%. BYD’s sales rebounded 25% wow during the week on price cuts, easing inventory pressure. Geely launched the AI-powered Xingrui Cloud Power 2.0 and Galaxy A7 EM-i, featuring ultra-low fuel use and smart energy management. Robotaxi commercialisation is accelerating vehicle intelligentisation. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Sales surge, driven by price cuts and new model launches. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu. Update Haidilao International Holding (6862 HK/BUY/HK$14.44/Target: HK$19.00) Revenue remains under pressure but stable operating margin is expected; increasing consumer preference for food delivery over dining in. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Jacobson Pharma (...
China's new 60-day payment mandate marks a turning point for the auto industry, squeezing OEM cash flows while unlocking liquidity and innovation for suppliers. We maintain earnings estimates of auto companies unchanged, pending the policy enforcement. China’s PV insurance registrations dropped 7.6% wow in the 23rd week of 2025, due to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the typical early-month lull in demand. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Desay SV and Tuopu.
The authorities are cracking down on predatory pricing, supplier exploitation and inventory fraud, which bodes well for the sustained development of China’s auto industry. However, overcapacity remains a structural problem. The 2025 Greater Bay Auto Show highlighted electrification, autonomous driving, and low-altitude mobility, with BYD’s "oil-electric same-speed" ultra-fast charging and plans for 15,000 charging piles standing out. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely and XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: Government steps in to restore order. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely and XPeng. MALAYSIA Sector Gaming Anticipate sector earnings to progressively grow throughout 2025-26 and offer solid dividend yields, but downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT given limited immediate cataly...
China automaker stocks plummeted 10-11% this week on: a) the price war triggered by BYD, and b) worries over the financial soundness of auto OEMs raised by GWM’s Chairman Wei Jianjun’s critics and the Ministry of Commerce’s probe into “zero-mileage second-hand cars”. We deem these concerns valid but the risks remain manageable as long as sales keep growing. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely and XPeng. Cut target price of BYD from HK$510.00 to HK$490.00.
China’s PV insurance registrations grew 14% yoy but dipped 1.0% mom and 14% wow in the 20th week of 2025, with PEV market share rising to a ytd high of 56.3%. Geely Galaxy’s sales dipped 4.0% wow, but its sales will be driven by the launch of new models such as the Starshine 8 and the flagship SUV M9. XPeng posted upbeat 1Q25 results and aims to turn profitable by 4Q25, driven by a strong product cycle and tech upgrades. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and XPeng.
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales dip slightly wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and XPeng. Results Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.57/Target: HK$12.10) 4QFY25: Core business is solid, but bottom line impacted by non-core items. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$56.90/Target: HK$85.60) Expect unchanged 10% order volume growth for 2025;...
China’s PV insurance registrations rose 0.5% yoy, 26.5% mom and 5% wow in the 19th week of 2025, with PEV market share increasing to 50.2%. Geely’s Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy saw strong sales growth driven by new model launches, aggressive pricing, tech upgrades, and robust export expansion. We lift Geely’s 2025 net profit forecast by 24%, given its upbeat 1Q25 earnings. Maintain BUY and raise target price to HK$31.00 Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
China’s PV insurance registrations rose 16% yoy and 26% mom but fell 6% wow in the 18th week of 2025, with PEV market share dropping to 48.0%. The wow drop was mainly due to the Labour Day Holiday. Geely plans to privatise Zeekr for US$2.2b just a year after its NYSE IPO, aiming to streamline operations and boost global EV competitiveness amid rising geopolitical and market pressures. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
This week, we have takeaways from the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show. OEMs like BYD and Geely showcased promising new models, eg Ocean-S, Galaxy Warship. BYD’s 1Q25 net profit doubled yoy, in line with expectations. GWM’s 1Q25 earnings missed estimates on margins. We downgrade GWM from BUY to SELL. EVE Energy’s 1Q25 results beat estimates on shipments and margins. We upgrade EVE Energy from SELL to BUY. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
China’s PV insurance registrations rose 13% yoy and 4% wow in the 15th week of 2025, with PEV market share climbing to 53.0% as EV sales surged and ICE-cars demand softened. Galaxy and Zeekr underperformed amid rising competition from BYD’s DiPilot models and broader EV price cuts. Management will adjust pricing and launch five new models at two-month intervals, with major upgrades in July-August. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
US tariffs on Chinese autos (up to 150%) have limited direct impact but raise global trade tensions, posing risks to demand and earnings. China’s auto sales grew 25% yoy but fell 30% wow in the 14th week of 2025, mainly due to Qingming Festival. PEV market share remained at 50.1%. BYD and Geely respectively guide for 86-119% yoy and 205-233% yoy spike in 1Q25 earnings, beating expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV.
CATL posted mixed 4Q24 results with revenue of Rmb103.0b (-3.1% yoy/+11.6% qoq) and net profit of Rmb15.4b (+18.5% yoy/+17.1% qoq). Gross margin dipped due to changes in accounting policies. Looking ahead, CATL’s earnings will be driven by the ramp-up of its new battery products. We raise our 2025-26 net profit forecasts by 12%/11% to Rmb66,108m/Rmb79,528m respectively, and introduce our 2027 net profit estimate of Rmb94,240m. Maintain BUY. Lift target price from Rmb350.00 to Rmb390.00.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Credit demand remains subdued. Sector Update Consumer: The State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption. Initiate Coverage Waterdrop Inc (WDH US/BUY/US$1.50/Target: US$2.20): From crowdfunding to insurtech leadership with differentiated business model. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$61.25/Target: HK$93.00): 2024: VONB slightly below expectations; new US$1.6b buyback programme. Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb26...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply February's M1 growth slowed to 0.1% yoy (-0.3ppt), missing consensus’ 1.0%, due to the Chinese New Year effect. M2 remained steady at 7.0% yoy, but new bank loans fell to Rmb1.01t compared with Jan 25’s Rmb5.13t, while new TSF fell to Rmb2.23t, both below forecasts. Thus, outstanding bank loans growth edged lower to 7.3% yoy. Nevertheless, outstanding TSF growth rose to 8.2% yoy due to increased government bond issuance. Weak domestic demand remains a key ...
China auto sales declined wow in the 10th week of 2025, with a 55.7% share of the PEV market. BYD successfully raised HK$43.4b (US$5.6b) in an H-share placement. ASEAN investors are becoming increasingly positive on China’s auto sector, with BYD and Geely leading in AI/ADAS and overseas expansion, while risks like margins, US tariffs, and chip restrictions remain manageable. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao, CATL and Desay SV.
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