reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
DOJ on spectrum and fourth carrier
The DOJ made some surprising comments on the importance of a fourth carrier and the dangers of the three national carriers acquiring more spectrum in its decision on USM (decision here). Please see Blair’s note for the definitive view on regulatory implications. We provide some quick thoughts on implications for Wireless Carriers and Cable in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
DOJ Approves TMUS But with a Big But (That Affects SATS)
As expected, the DOJ has approved TMUS’ acquisition of USM. But the approval had language that suggests that the DOJ may be more troubled than we anticipated with the prospect of SATS selling its spectrum to the Big Three wireless carriers. In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for SATS and the sector.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act
We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
Translating Carr on SATS
Yesterday, at the post FCC open meeting press conference, Chairman Carr made some comments about the situation with SATS. In this note, we report on the comments as well as providing a translation, as the words on their face do not indicate where he thinks the process is heading but they do, if interpreted properly, indicate where he would like it to go. In addition, we tie Carr’s comment to the Bloomberg report that Ergen is seeking a 30-day reprieve from creditors.
- Blair Levin
As SATS Chapter 11 Clock Clicks Down, Does FCC Need to Act?
On May 30th, SATS declined to make an $326 million interest payment. Given the automatic 30-day grace period, that means SATS must either make the payment by June 30th or it goes into default. Per President’s Trump’s instructions, Chairman Carr is supposed to be negotiating with Charlie Ergen to see if there is a path to avoid bankruptcy. In this note we discuss what we know and cannot know about those negotiations.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer
While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...
- Blair Levin
Trump Mobile: Just Another MVNO or Game Changer?
As we noted Friday, the Trump Organization is entering the mobile services market. Our New Street colleagues have published a note comparing the Trump offering to other wireless services. In this policy focused note we discuss the potential relationship with the SATS proceedings, the potential conflicts of interests, the track record of such Trump consumer offerings, the potential conflicts of interests, and how regulation could shape MVNO and wireless markets.
- Blair Levin
SATS v. Carr State of (the) Play: Curtain Raises on Act II
Last Friday, Bloomberg reported on a meeting at the White House between the President, FCC Chair Carr and EchoStar Chair Charlie Ergen. We provided quick thoughts on the implications of the meeting Friday afternoon. In this note we update our overall analysis on where the conflicts between Carr and SATS stands and how we think those issues will play out post the Presidential involvement.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Trump intervenes; Ergen files for extensions
Two pieces of news broke just in time for you to ponder over cocktails. First, Bloomberg reported that Trump met with Ergen and Carr at the White House yesterday, urging them to make a deal. Second, EchoStar filed “prophylactically” for license extensions, in the event that the V-Tel petition is granted. Some musings, but not much substance in this note.
- Blair Levin
SATS Update: POTUS, Ergen and Carr and More
Just as we were getting ready for the weekend, three data points came across our screen involving SATS, including one about a meeting between President Trump, Ergen, and Carr. In this note, we provide a quick summary of the data point and our quick response.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Philip Burnett
Chapter 11 and Spectrum Values – Questions We Didn’t Get To
We hosted a call on Monday that covered our analysis of the impact of the FCC inquiries on spectrum values, and how this could change if the Company files for Chapter 11 protection. We hosted the call with Jeff Carlisle who is perhaps the leading expert on matters that sit at the intersection of telecom policy and bankruptcy. We got more questions than we could answer in the time we had, and so we covered the questions we didn’t get to in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DBS also misses interest payment
Today EchoStar filed an 8-K announcing that they would not make a scheduled interest payment on DBS secured and unsecured bonds. As with the skipped interest payment at EchoStar, this triggers a 30-day grace period after which DBS will be in default. A default at DBS would also trigger a default at Dish Network Corp., based on cross-default protections in Dish Network Corp. bonds. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
- Blair Levin
Of SATS, the FCC and NextWave
Since Friday’s announcement that SATS is not making an interest payment, triggering a 30-day period that could lead to a SATS voluntary Chapter 11 proceeding, we have been in numerous talks with investors about the most notorious bankruptcy case involving the FCC and a telecom company, NextWave. In this note we quickly summarize the key lessons of that case for investors analyzing the potential implications of a SATS bankruptcy proceeding.
- Blair Levin
SATS Proceedings: First FCC Filings
As previously discussed, earlier this month, the FCC opened two proceedings that could adversely affect SATS. The opening round of filings in those proceedings ended earlier this week. In this note we review the filings to update our analysis of the likely outcome.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: initial comments in FCC inquiries are out
There are two inquiries underway: one on the validity of the buildout extension; one exploring potential sharing in the MSS spectrum. In the first inquiry, only three parties filed in opposition – VTel, SpaceX, and SFP. The SFP filing alleges that EchoStar used “slight-of-hand” to meet buildout commitments. In the second inquiry, there were several filings from satellite companies that would like access to the spectrum (as one might expect). Our quick reaction in this brief note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar had a strong April (and so did everyone else)
EchoStar filed an 8-K this morning claiming that the recent FCC public notices concerning its licenses have created uncertainty, limiting its ability to continue the buildout. In addition, they disclosed strong adds in April, which is consistent with comments made by Verizon today and others at recent events. Our quick thoughts in this (very) brief note.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.