reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
- Jonathan Moreland
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NMFC NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
MCHX MARCHEX INC. CL B
KVHI KVH INDUSTRIES INC.
JRVR JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
HSII HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL INC.
HASI
I3N HANNON ARMSTRONG SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL INC.
GDOT CHART INDUSTRIES INC.
EXAS GREEN DOT CORPORATION CLASS A
CROX EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION
CNC CROCS INC.
AGCO CENTENE CORPORATION
AVNW AGCO CORPORATION
ENPH AVIAT NETWORKS
HTLD ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
ZOM HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC.
DMLP ZOMEDICA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP
MAV DORCHESTER MINERALS L.P.
HLNE PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TRUST
SNBR HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED CLASS A
MHI SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
GNL PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME TRUST
BBDC GALEY & LORD INC.
CLDX BARINGS BDC INC.
ENX CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS INC.
ADV EATON VANCE NEW YORK MUNICIPAL BOND FUND
HPK ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC (A)
MRVI HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC (A)
OPCH MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS
MODV OPTION CARE HEALTH INC
DCOM MODIVCARE INC
UAN DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES
PFBX INC.
OSCR CVR PARTNERS LP
BGS PEOPLES FINANCIAL CORP. (MISSISSIPPI)
WBD OSCAR HEALTH
TCBX B&G FOODS
BIGZ INC.
RXO_w WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
VANI THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
KLG_w BLACKROCK INNOVATION AND GROWTH TST
DBD RXO INC
MIO VIVANI MEDICAL INC
WPC WK KELLOGG CO
EVM DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
PIONEER MUN HIGH INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FD INC
W. P. CAREY AND CO. LLC
EATON VANCE INSD CALIF MUN BD FD
Moody's Ratings appends limited default (LD) to EchoStar's Caa2-PD PDR...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) appended a limited default (LD) designation to EchoStar Corporation's (EchoStar) probability of default rating (PDR), revising it to Caa2-PD/LD from Caa2-PD. This follows EchoStar's exchanges of convertible debt at the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, DISH Network Corpora...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: quick thoughts following the call 3Q24
In this note we focus on just one thing: the fate of DBS. We will cover what we learned about the mobile business in a follow up, if we can (there wasn’t much). Based on conversations, we believe bondholders will reject the current DBS exchange offer (it expires at 5PM). The DBS merger is contingent on the exchange succeeding, and so this will fail too. We cover the implications for EchoStar, TPG, and bond holders in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 3Q24 Quick Take: Results not great; two of three 747s have landed...
We have updated this note for details published in the 10-Q. We have also updated the tables and charts and included them in this version. The biggest change from our initial take relates to ACP losses, which were much higher than expected. The company lost 359k ACP subs, or over 90% of the base they had at the end of 2Q24. This is worse than ACP retention seen at peers.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 3Q24 Quick Take: Results okay; two of three 747s have landed
The operating trends were mostly worse than expected, though we won’t have full visibility until the EchoStar 10-Q is filed (and we won’t have complete visibility until the DBS 10-Q is filed in about a week). Wireless net adds excluding ACP were strong. The cash balance excluding the financing from TPG was lower than we expected, but the new financing closed this morning, which will render any concerns about that moot.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar amends DBS exchange offer
EchoStar has increased its offer to exchange certain DBS notes for new DTV notes by $0.06-$0.065, lowering the discount by about $70MM from $1.568BN to $1.499BN. We have no idea whether this is an output of discussions between bondholders and the company or whether the company is doing this unilaterally. Either way, improving the terms increases the odds of the exchange going through. Our base case remains that the deal is in the best interest of all parties and will ultimately be done.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Value increases following transactions (but takes longer to ...
We have updated our model for the sale of DBS and increased investment in network infrastructure and subscriber growth following the capital raise. We have also updated spectrum values for recent transactions. We are more confident than ever in the value that will be realized if spectrum is sold, though the timing of a sale has likely been pushed out. Dish could build a business that is as valuable as the spectrum, but it is tough to have confidence in this.
- Jonathan Chaplin
US Cellular Sells 850MHz Licenses to Verizon
US Cellular has sold its cellular licenses in the 850MHz band, as well as a handful of AWS and PCS licenses, to Verizon for $1 billion. The transaction isn’t a surprise; we have been expecting USM to sell all their assets (USM and TDS have been our favorite small ideas). The price was higher than expected. In this note we briefly cover implications for USM, TDS, EchoStar, and spectrum values more broadly.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar transactions – they did it!
A couple of quarters ago, Dish set out to lower debt outstanding, extend maturities on the debt that remained, and put new cash on the balance sheet. They had a deadline of November 2024, when $2BN of debt at DBS matured. As we approached the deadline, investors were growing increasingly skeptical that it could be done. They did it all, and they wrapped a sale of DBS into the process. Our thoughts on the deals and the implications for EchoStar and the broader industry in this note.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
ATNI ATN INTERNATIONAL INC.
WYNN WYNN RESORTS LIMITED
STAA STAAR SURGICAL CO.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
NWPX NORTHWEST PIPE CO.
LVS LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP.
KRNT KORNIT DIGITAL LTD.
ITRI ITRON INC.
IRDM IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC.
HNRG HALLADOR ENERGY CO.
ELMD ELECTROMED
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CRY CRYOLIFE INC.
BZH BEAZER HOMES USA INC.
ASPN ASPEN AEROGELS
ARDX ARDELYX INC
AMSC AMERICAN SUPERCONDUCTOR CORP.
LULU LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
LEU CENTRUS ENERGY CORPORATION
NC NACCO INDUSTRIES INC. CL A
CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
YEXT YEXT
CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
GLOB GAZIT-GLOBE LTD.
MTRX MATRIX IT LTD.
MEC MAYVILLE ENGINEERING
IGMS IGM BIOSCIENCES
PWFL POWERFLEET INC
OCN OCWEN FINANCIAL CORP.
MP MP MATERIALS CORP (A)
DFH DREAM FINDERS HOMES
LUMN LUMEN TECHNOLOGIES INC.
CSIOY CASIO COMPUTER CO
HOOD ROBINHOOD MARKETS INC
RKLB ROCKET LAB USA INC
EE EXCELERATE ENERGY INC
LASE LASER PHOTONICS CORP
CMPO COMPOSECURE INC
MPTI M TRON INDUSTRIES INC
LUNR INTUITIVE MACHINES INC
WGS GENEDX HOLDINGS CORP.
BYRN BYRNA TECHNOLOGIES INC
DAVE DAVE INC
TELO TELOMIR PHARMACEUTICALS INC
BVS BAYVIEW CAPITAL TRUST I PFD 9.76%
SNCR SYNCHRONOSS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
TECX TD GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY LEADERS CAD HEDGED INDEX ETF
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Model Update
We have updated our EchoStar model following the filing of all four 10-Q’s last week. The changes are modest, and we continue to see the company funded through November 14th. We run through the major intercompany cash movements in 2Q24, and the most likely path to raising Capital if a holistic solution that raises new cash, pushes out maturities, and lowers debt outstanding can’t be negotiated before November 14th
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 2Q24 Quick Take: FCF beat; big questions still unresolved
Operating trends were ok. EBITDA and FCF beat consensus expectations (EBITDA by a little; FCF by a lot). The cash balance ended lower than we expected, but largely due to the timing of receipts from asset sales (plus some opportunistic debt repurchases).
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: model update
This note covers updates to the model following consolidated EchoStar results. We increased service revenue and EBITDA. Our free cash flow is up very modestly. The company has five to seven months to raise capital. We updated our valuation to $95 / share. We will have another update out once we get the Dish, DBS & Hughes 10-Qs.
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: Quick thoughts following the call
In this brief note, we cover: 1) securitizable spectrum value; 2) when cash runs out; 3) the implications of the DBS lawsuit for raising new capital; 4) operating improvements in prepaid wireless; 4) progress on cost savings; 5) preliminary thoughts on a new strategy in postpaid wireless.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 1Q24 Quick Take: Operating trends fine; focus will be on capital ...
Operating results were generally a bit better than expected. The Company appears to be doing what it can to preserve cash. The cash burn was $100MM higher than we expected and $200MM higher than consensus expected. We estimate that the Company has enough cash to get through the next two quarters, but barely.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
PEP PEPSICO INC.
TXN TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
TRMK TRUSTMARK CORPORATION
SWN SOUTHWESTERN ENERGY COMPANY
SMTC SEMTECH CORPORATION
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
RRC RANGE RESOURCES CORPORATION
NFG NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
MDWD MEDIWOUND
LWAY LIFEWAY FOODS INC.
HAS HASBRO INC.
FBP FIRST BANCORP
EQT EQT CORPORATION
DECK DECKERS OUTDOOR CORPORATION
CRK COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC.
VIRT VIRTU FINANCIAL INC. CLASS A
SYF SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL
HRTG HERITAGE INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC.
BSX. BELO SUN MINING CORP.
ORN ORION GROUP HOLDINGS
ITGR INTEGER HOLDINGS CORPORATION
PE. PURE ENERGY MINERALS LTD
DESP DESPEGAR.COM CORP.
AMRX AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS INC. CLASS A
NTB BANK OF N.T. BUTTERFIELD & SON
COOP MR. COOPER GROUP INC.
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
ALXO ALX ONCOLOGY HOLDINGS
PRDO PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORP
LRN STRIDE INC
PRG PROG HOLDINGS INC
VRT VERTIV HOLDINGS CO (A)
AMAL AMALGAMATED FINANCIAL CORP
CGEM CULLINAN ONCOLOGY INC
RANI RANI THERAPEUTICS HLDGS INC
CR CRANE CO NEW
BGC BGC GROUP INC
SOWG SOW GOOD INC COM
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