reports
- Philip Burnett
- Philip Burnett
The EchoStar Deal: Impacts to AT&T
We covered our first reaction to the deal before the AT&T call this morning. Blair covered the policy implications here. In this note, we follow up with a detailed analysis of the impact to AT&T. While the deal is very modestly accretive to AT&T free cash flow over time, it reduces share repurchases beyond 2027 and is therefore a touch dilutive to long-run free cash flow per share. The small decline seen by T equity today is generally in line with the reduction in value from lower free cash flow...
- Philip Burnett
- Blair Levin
SATS/T Reach Agreement: What Will FCC Do Next?
This morning, SATS and T announced an agreement by which SATS would sell spectrum to T for $23 billion and enter into a hybrid MVNO deal. Our New Street colleagues discuss the financial implications in a separate note, but in this note we discuss the implications for policy and the current FCC proceedings.
- Blair Levin
SATS: How should Investors Interpret the Sounds of Silence?
What’s New: Nothing. That is, since the comment period on the two public notices affecting SATS’ spectrum formally ended, there has been no material activity in the docket. Further, since the Oval Office meeting involving the President, FCC Chair Carr and SATS Chairman Ergen, there has been vague comments but no material data about discussions over spectrum sales. In this note, we analyze the different scenarios that the sounds of silence could signify.
- Blair Levin
SATS v. Carr: Post Earnings Call State of Play
Last Friday, SATS held its earnings. Our New Street colleagues offered their thoughts on the financial implications of what was learned (LINK). In this note, we analyze what the call revealed in terms of the state of play of the ongoing negotiations between FCC Chair Carr and SATS.
- Philip Burnett
SATS: Quick thoughts following the 2Q25 Call
In our note this morning, we flagged that on the call management was likely to stick to boilerplate language about continuing to work to stand up a successful fourth wireless network, and wouldn’t have much to say about the FCC negotiations. That was pretty much the case. However, we did learn interesting details on how the company is thinking about the D2D opportunity, and gained insights on recent activity in the wireless market. We cover thoughts on both in this brief note.
- Philip Burnett
SATS 2Q25 Quick Take: Slightly soft results; no spectrum updates, but ...
Financial results were generally a bit worse than expected, though part of the weakness stemmed from the cost of producing much better adds in wireless. Free cash flow missed consensus by a mile, but we suspect investors engaged on EchoStar were braced for estimates closer to ours.
- Philip Burnett
SATS: The Only Thing That Matters Tomorrow
In its 8-K yesterday, EchoStar used vague language that could suggest it is open to selling some of its spectrum while continuing to try to build a business with the rest. When the company reports results tomorrow, investors will be singularly focused on any more concrete clues as to the company's intentions with its spectrum portfolio.
- Blair Levin
SATS and Carr: Is there really a best and final offer on the table?
As our New Street Colleagues discussed in a note yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg is reporting that the Chairman of the FCC has made a "best and final" offer to EchoStar that would force the company to sell its AWS-4 spectrum. Our colleagues focused on the economics of such a sale. In this note, we discuss the policy issues that we think are shaping those discussions and why we are skeptical that there is a “best and final” offer on the table.
- Philip Burnett
- Philip Burnett
DBS Makes Interest Payments
Earlier this week, we flagged that the next piece of news from EchoStar would be about whether DBS was making interest payments that were originally due on July 1st. This morning, the company filed an 8-K stating that it has made the payments, thereby avoiding an "event of default".
- Philip Burnett
FCC Chair Flags Ongoing Discussions with EchoStar About Spectrum
On Friday FCC Chairman Brendan Carr was interviewed on CNBC about the Paramount merger. However, near the end of the discussion (around the 7:35 mark), he mentioned that he is having "ongoing discussions" with Charlie Ergen about putting EchoStar's spectrum to its "highest and best use." This answers the most common question we have been getting from clients over the last few weeks on the company, which is whether progress toward a settlement between the FCC and EchoStar is being made. Moreover,...
- Philip Burnett
SATS: when do the restrictions on spectrum sales expire?
There has been a lot of debate around when the restrictions that limit EchoStar’s ability to sell spectrum end. Controversially, we now think that the requirement that the Company obtain DOJ approval before sales of 600MHz or AWS-4 could actually end by November of this year.
- Jonathan Chaplin
DOJ on spectrum and fourth carrier
The DOJ made some surprising comments on the importance of a fourth carrier and the dangers of the three national carriers acquiring more spectrum in its decision on USM (decision here). Please see Blair’s note for the definitive view on regulatory implications. We provide some quick thoughts on implications for Wireless Carriers and Cable in this brief note.
- Blair Levin
DOJ Approves TMUS But with a Big But (That Affects SATS)
As expected, the DOJ has approved TMUS’ acquisition of USM. But the approval had language that suggests that the DOJ may be more troubled than we anticipated with the prospect of SATS selling its spectrum to the Big Three wireless carriers. In this note we analyze the DOJ language and what it means for SATS and the sector.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Updating Price Targets for One Big Beautiful Bill Act
We have updated the price targets for our coverage as a result of the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Prior to the bill becoming law, we had already added the value of tax reform to our price targets on a probability-weighted basis. We have now increased the probability from 75% to 100%.
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
Translating Carr on SATS
Yesterday, at the post FCC open meeting press conference, Chairman Carr made some comments about the situation with SATS. In this note, we report on the comments as well as providing a translation, as the words on their face do not indicate where he thinks the process is heading but they do, if interpreted properly, indicate where he would like it to go. In addition, we tie Carr’s comment to the Bloomberg report that Ergen is seeking a 30-day reprieve from creditors.
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