reports
- Blair Levin
Will Chinese Investment in SpaceX affect the FCC 2GHz review?
New reports indicate that SpaceX has previously undisclosed investments by Chinese investors. This has raised questions about whether those investments could affect the pending application by SpaceX to purchase the AWS4/2GHz band from SATS. In this note, we provide a legal and historic background for how investors should think about that question.
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar in Paris: Quick thoughts
Hamid and Charlie just wrapped in Paris. In this brief note we cover key topics, including the company’s thoughts on selling its spectrum, its plans for future uses of the spectrum proceeds, and its thinking on taxes and other liabilities. We also address the timing of future spectrum sales and the outlook for Boost, Hughes and DBS. Finally, we share insights on SpaceX’s new S-Band direct-to-device service.
- Blair Levin
Implications of Carr’s SATS/SpaceX Competition Comments
FCC Chairman Carr gave a speech this week in which he said that the SATS/SpaceX deal “is a potential gamechanger for the American consumer—it promises to light up new spectrum and bring new sources of competition to the wireless and connectivity market.” In this note we review the evidence on whether he is likely to be proven correct but also what the implications of his comments are for wireless policy in the near-term.
- Blair Levin
- Philip Burnett
SpaceX Buys AWS-4 and PCS H-Block from EchoStar
EchoStar announced that it is selling its AWS-4 and PCS H-Block spectrum to SpaceX for a total of $19BN, including $8.5BN of cash, $8.5BN of stock in SpaceX, and $2BN of interest payments payable to EchoStar. According to SpaceX, the purchase agreement also covers EchoStar’s global MSS licenses.
- Blair Levin
SATS and SpaceX: Quick Policy Perspective
This morning SATS announced that it had entered into a definitive agreement with SpaceX to sell the company's AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses for approximately $17 billion for SpaceX to fund an aggregate of approximately $2 billion of cash interest payments payable on EchoStar debt through November of 2027. Further, SpaceX and EchoStar will enter into an agreement to enable EchoStar's Boost Mobile subscribers to access Starlink’s Direct to Cell service. In this note, we quickly analyze the ...
- Philip Burnett
EchoStar Spectrum Sales: Implications for Industry FWA Capacity
In the wake of EchoStar selling spectrum to AT&T, we have updated our FWA capacity model on the assumption that all of the company’s spectrum eventually ends up with the big three carriers. We now expect the industry to have capacity for almost 22MM residential FWA subscribers, up from 19.5MM before.
- Blair Levin
SATS Spectrum Deals Raise Hopes for DBS Deal
With the announcement of SATS’ deal with T and prospects for further spectrum sales, investors are once again hopeful that the long-anticipated merger of the DBS companies can happen. In this note, we update our thoughts on the government review of that deal if it happens.
- Blair Levin
SATS, The DOJ, and Further Policy Considerations
The deal between SATS and T has raised numerous policy related questions. In this note, we expand our policy analysis to address the questions we have most often received this week and clear up some misconceptions we have noticed about how policy process will proceed from here on out.
- Philip Burnett
- Philip Burnett
The EchoStar Deal: Impacts to AT&T
We covered our first reaction to the deal before the AT&T call this morning. Blair covered the policy implications here. In this note, we follow up with a detailed analysis of the impact to AT&T. While the deal is very modestly accretive to AT&T free cash flow over time, it reduces share repurchases beyond 2027 and is therefore a touch dilutive to long-run free cash flow per share. The small decline seen by T equity today is generally in line with the reduction in value from lower free cash flow...
- Philip Burnett
- Blair Levin
SATS/T Reach Agreement: What Will FCC Do Next?
This morning, SATS and T announced an agreement by which SATS would sell spectrum to T for $23 billion and enter into a hybrid MVNO deal. Our New Street colleagues discuss the financial implications in a separate note, but in this note we discuss the implications for policy and the current FCC proceedings.
- Blair Levin
SATS: How should Investors Interpret the Sounds of Silence?
What’s New: Nothing. That is, since the comment period on the two public notices affecting SATS’ spectrum formally ended, there has been no material activity in the docket. Further, since the Oval Office meeting involving the President, FCC Chair Carr and SATS Chairman Ergen, there has been vague comments but no material data about discussions over spectrum sales. In this note, we analyze the different scenarios that the sounds of silence could signify.
- Blair Levin
SATS v. Carr: Post Earnings Call State of Play
Last Friday, SATS held its earnings. Our New Street colleagues offered their thoughts on the financial implications of what was learned (LINK). In this note, we analyze what the call revealed in terms of the state of play of the ongoing negotiations between FCC Chair Carr and SATS.
- Philip Burnett
SATS: Quick thoughts following the 2Q25 Call
In our note this morning, we flagged that on the call management was likely to stick to boilerplate language about continuing to work to stand up a successful fourth wireless network, and wouldn’t have much to say about the FCC negotiations. That was pretty much the case. However, we did learn interesting details on how the company is thinking about the D2D opportunity, and gained insights on recent activity in the wireless market. We cover thoughts on both in this brief note.
- Philip Burnett
SATS 2Q25 Quick Take: Slightly soft results; no spectrum updates, but ...
Financial results were generally a bit worse than expected, though part of the weakness stemmed from the cost of producing much better adds in wireless. Free cash flow missed consensus by a mile, but we suspect investors engaged on EchoStar were braced for estimates closer to ours.
- Philip Burnett
SATS: The Only Thing That Matters Tomorrow
In its 8-K yesterday, EchoStar used vague language that could suggest it is open to selling some of its spectrum while continuing to try to build a business with the rest. When the company reports results tomorrow, investors will be singularly focused on any more concrete clues as to the company's intentions with its spectrum portfolio.
- Blair Levin
SATS and Carr: Is there really a best and final offer on the table?
As our New Street Colleagues discussed in a note yesterday afternoon, Bloomberg is reporting that the Chairman of the FCC has made a "best and final" offer to EchoStar that would force the company to sell its AWS-4 spectrum. Our colleagues focused on the economics of such a sale. In this note, we discuss the policy issues that we think are shaping those discussions and why we are skeptical that there is a “best and final” offer on the table.
- Philip Burnett
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