reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: rearchitecting the model (and a small collateral swap)
We have rearchitected the model in light of evidence of the company no longer using DBS as a source of cash for the wireless business and given changes in how the various subsidiaries are being funded following the debt raise late last year. It appears that DBS is building up cash to pay off debt in July of next year. This may require EchoStar to raise new debt in the fourth quarter of 2026 rather than during 2027. We also cover a small but interesting collateral swap between Dish Network & Echo...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
FCC Chair Escalates DISH/SpaceX battle
A few weeks ago, we analyzed the latest front in the long running battle between DISH and SpaceX. That battle has escalated, with a WSJ story describing a letter from FCC Chair Carr to DISH that appears to take SpaceX’s side and two FCC public notices that appear sympathetic to SpaceX as well. In this note, we update our analysis to reflect the letter, the public notices, and what happens going forward.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: Quick thoughts on risk to licenses from FCC action
We have received a barrage of calls and emails on the risk to Dish losing licenses following an FCC letter to the company announcing plans to investigate whether the Company has met regulatory requirements. For Blair’s last note on this topic, see here. Blair will have updated thoughts out tomorrow morning. In the meantime, we provide quick answers to the two most common questions we have been getting in this note.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
In this note we touch briefly on all the main controversies, including progress in retail and wholesale, the prospect of a Cable MVNO, progress on the network build and FCC commitments, the return of the DBS merger, the direct-to-device opportunity, and the impact of tower lease obligations on valuation.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 1Q25 Quick Take: Wireless making progress (but not enough)
Wireless results continued to improve, but not by enough to convince investors that the business will ultimately be worth what the spectrum is worth. We didn’t see any disclosure on the big strategic issues (spectrum sale; DBS merger; spectrum fight with SpaceX; potential D2D partner).
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar swapping some 3.45GHz for 600MHz
EchoStar is swapping 3.45GHz licenses in markets where they have excess licenses for 600MHz licenses in markets where they have a shortfall. Financial terms weren’t disclosed, but we suspect that this was a straight swap of two similarly valued portfolios that doesn’t set a new mark for either band. The transactions, while small, suggest that EchoStar is still focused on improving their wireless business rather than on divesting spectrum.
- Philip Burnett
MVNO Rates: EchoStar vs. Cable
A question we are often asked is how much the carriers charge MVNOs for wireless services. While working through EchoStar’s 10-K we noticed new reporting that seems to show the MVNO fee it paid in 2022 and 2023. In this brief note we unpack the relevant EchoStar reporting and compare the implied MVNO cost per subscriber to our estimates for the Cable MVNO.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
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GEO GEO GROUP INC. (THE)
TGL. TECNOGLASS INC.
SRI STONERIDGE INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
CXW CORECIVIC INC.
AXS AXIS CAPITAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
ACIW ACI WORLDWIDE INC.
NTNX NUTANIX INC. CLASS A
ADT ADT INC
ICL ICL GROUP LTD.
RRTS ROADRUNNER TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
MEG MONTROSE ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP
PRVA PRIVIA HEALTH GROUP INC
ZI ZOOMINFO TECHNOLOGIES INC
ROOT BRISTOW GROUP INC
SARO ROOT INC
STANDARDAERO INC.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS quick thoughts following the 4Q24 call
In this follow-up, we cover: the 2GHz appraisal and implications for spectrum value and liquidity; our updated 3.45GHz valuation; our updated thoughts on taxes in the event of a sale; the impact of the above on our target price; thoughts on EchoStar’s participation in the AWS-3 auction; comments on their direct-to-device aspirations; the fate of Hughes. We also provided updated thoughts on how investors might adjust their odds on the prospects of a spectrum sale, based on comments on the call.
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS 4Q24 Quick Take: Wireless has turned a corner but the road ahead ...
Wireless operating trends were better than expected. Pay-TV financials were strong. The free cash flow burn was huge due to a working capital drag that was likely driven by investments in growth in retail wireless (the Company should get this back). In addition to a detailed review of the print, in this note we cover thoughts on: 1. Whether to operate or to sell 2. The timing of a sale 3. Liquidity 4. Operating results 5. The migration of traffic onto Dish’s own network 6. The dangers of an empt...
- Blair Levin
- Jonathan Chaplin
Carriers could spend $180BN on spectrum over the next four years
In this note we cover the potential timing of all the major spectrum auctions and transactions that could occur during the current administration, the amount of financial capacity the carriers have for purchasing this spectrum, and the intrinsic value of the spectrum. The analysis has important implications for EchoStar and for the three national carriers.
- Blair Levin
What to Expect in 2025: The Most Consequential Year in Communications ...
Happy New Year, welcome back and we hope those in Blair’s path found shelter from the storm. 2025 will be the most consequential year in telecom and media policy since the mid-1990’s. In this note, we preview the key policy pivots we see as likely to impact the telecom and media landscape including the macro issues of taxes, tariffs, and deportations; and the sector focused issues affecting ISPs (reorientation of BEAD, USF reform, copper retirement and cybersecurity), wireless players (spectrum...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
SATS: a thought on the debt exchange
In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.
- Jonathan Moreland
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
SATS ECHOSTAR CORPORATION CLASS A
PBF PBF ENERGY INC. CLASS A
OPK OPKO HEALTH INC.
NMFC NEW MOUNTAIN FINANCE CORPORATION
MCHX MARCHEX INC. CL B
KVHI KVH INDUSTRIES INC.
JRVR JAMES RIVER GROUP HOLDINGS LTD
HSII HEIDRICK & STRUGGLES INTERNATIONAL INC.
HASI
I3N HANNON ARMSTRONG SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL INC.
GDOT CHART INDUSTRIES INC.
EXAS GREEN DOT CORPORATION CLASS A
CROX EXACT SCIENCES CORPORATION
CNC CROCS INC.
AGCO CENTENE CORPORATION
AVNW AGCO CORPORATION
ENPH AVIAT NETWORKS
HTLD ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
ZOM HEARTLAND EXPRESS INC.
DMLP ZOMEDICA PHARMACEUTICALS CORP
MAV DORCHESTER MINERALS L.P.
HLNE PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ADVANTAGE TRUST
SNBR HAMILTON LANE INCORPORATED CLASS A
MHI SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
GNL PIONEER MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME TRUST
BBDC GALEY & LORD INC.
CLDX BARINGS BDC INC.
ENX CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS INC.
ADV EATON VANCE NEW YORK MUNICIPAL BOND FUND
HPK ADVANTAGE SOLUTIONS INC (A)
MRVI HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC (A)
OPCH MARAVAI LIFESCIENCES HOLDINGS
MODV OPTION CARE HEALTH INC
DCOM MODIVCARE INC
UAN DIME COMMUNITY BANCSHARES
PFBX INC.
OSCR CVR PARTNERS LP
BGS PEOPLES FINANCIAL CORP. (MISSISSIPPI)
WBD OSCAR HEALTH
TCBX B&G FOODS
BIGZ INC.
RXO_w WARNER BROS. DISCOVERY INC.
VANI THIRD COAST BANCSHARES INC
KLG_w BLACKROCK INNOVATION AND GROWTH TST
DBD RXO INC
MIO VIVANI MEDICAL INC
WPC WK KELLOGG CO
EVM DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
PIONEER MUN HIGH INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FD INC
W. P. CAREY AND CO. LLC
EATON VANCE INSD CALIF MUN BD FD
Moody's Ratings appends limited default (LD) to EchoStar's Caa2-PD PDR...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) appended a limited default (LD) designation to EchoStar Corporation's (EchoStar) probability of default rating (PDR), revising it to Caa2-PD/LD from Caa2-PD. This follows EchoStar's exchanges of convertible debt at the company's wholly-owned subsidiary, DISH Network Corpora...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
EchoStar: quick thoughts following the call 3Q24
In this note we focus on just one thing: the fate of DBS. We will cover what we learned about the mobile business in a follow up, if we can (there wasn’t much). Based on conversations, we believe bondholders will reject the current DBS exchange offer (it expires at 5PM). The DBS merger is contingent on the exchange succeeding, and so this will fail too. We cover the implications for EchoStar, TPG, and bond holders in this note.
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