CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, Geely; SELL Li Auto.
CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL:...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with the local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: ...
Highlights To-C applications growth is accelerating among mega-cap players with super apps, while emerging unicorns focus on To-B and To-prosumers in specific AI scenarios/verticals and on physical AI in verticals such as mobility and smartphone. For the next 6-12 months, we are eyeing key AI narratives: a) roll-out of super apps leveraging on agentic AI, b) leading LLMs in specific verticals unlocking monetisation potential, and c) key drivers of cloud revenue growth. Over time, we expect fur...
Greater China Economics | PMI January PMI was below Bloomberg’s consensus, as the manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.2 (-0.9pt mom). The manufacturing output sub-index stayed marginally expansionary, while the new orders and new export orders sub-indices weakened. The purchase prices sub-index surged, pointing to higher cost pressure for manufacturers. The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4 (-0.8pt mom), mainly driven by a sharp contraction in the construction industry index. Large enterpri...
Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithi...
12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
We expect Tencent’s revenue growth to remain solid at 13% yoy in 4Q25 despite macro headwinds and the ad-spend tax, continuing to benefit from inventory release and AI empowerment. We opine that near- to mid-term catalysts would include: a) multiple flagship new game launches in 2026, b) continued improvement in ad placement efficiency driven by AI, and c) the launch of AI-powered Mini Program code development tools on WeChat. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$800.00.
Top Stories Sector Update | Healthcare At the recent investor conference, global investors viewed Chinese healthcare companies with increasing interest and optimism. Impressed by their advanced R&D pipelines and swift R&D-to-market execution capabilities, investors recognised Chinese companies’ potential for innovation and growth, particularly as they presented an array of cutting-edge products ready for global markets. This positive perception reflects a growing confidence in China's healthcar...
Greater China Sector Update | Healthcare At the recent investor conference, global investors viewed Chinese healthcare companies with increasing interest and optimism. Impressed by their advanced R&D pipelines and swift R&D-to-market execution capabilities, investors recognised Chinese companies’ potential for innovation and growth, particularly as they presented an array of cutting-edge products ready for global markets. This positive perception reflects a growing confidence in China's healthca...
China is cancelling VAT rebates for ESS battery exports, pulling forward demand for batteries and lithium carbonate to 2026, thus benefitting CATL and Ganfeng Lithium. The EU has set minimum prices for Chinese EVs as an alternative to the extra tariff, boding well for profitability of Chinese OEMs like Geely, BYD and XPeng. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
Greater China Economics | Money Supply December’s monetary data was mixed. M1 growth slowed further to 3.8% yoy, slightly below expectations, while M2 growth improved to 8.5% yoy on stronger time deposits growth. On a positive note, new bank loans rebounded to Rmb0.91t, mainly driven by corporate and government borrowing, and new TSF also beat forecasts. However, outstanding bank loan growth stayed at a year-low of 6.4% yoy and TSF growth eased to 8.3% yoy, underscoring still-fragile credit ...
We reckon that the AI wave is driven by key themes including: a) recurring AI LLM/applications and cloud revenue growth, and b) a wider deployment of proprietary and data driven AI agents by vertical players to strengthen competitive moats. Amid an uncertain competitive backdrop, we opine that cloud hyper-scalers are key beneficiaries underpinned by their ecosystem scale and technological capabilities, underscoring growing investor confidence in the AI-driven sector’s re-rating. Maintain OVERWEI...
Greater China Economics | Inflation December CPI inflation rose to 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt mom), the strongest reading ytd, with a sharp rebound in food prices. Core CPI remained at 1.2% yoy, the highest level for 2025, with goods inflation strengthening further while services inflation continued to ease slightly. PPI deflation moderated to 1.9% yoy (+0.3ppt mom), supported by improvements in mining and consumer goods pricing. Overall, the data suggests tentative price stabilisation, although defl...
We trim China’s 2026 PV sales growth to 3% yoy, based on a 2% yoy drop in domestic sales and 20% export growth, as the bigger-than-expected stimulus rollback weighs on demand. Based on lower 2026 sales, we cut 2026 net profit forecasts for OEMs by 3-10%, and cut target prices for Geely, BYD, GWM, XPeng and Li Auto to HK$36.00/HK$81.00/HK$18.50/HK$145.00/HK$50.00 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
Indonesia Company Update | Darma Henwa (DEWA IJ/BUY/Rp800/Target: Rp1,500) DEWA is entering a structural earnings upcycle driven by full in-house fleet utilisation, sharply higher operating capacity, and tighter cost control. Funding is secured to support expansion, while balance sheet optimisation could unlock dividends. With execution risk materially reduced and copper upside unpriced, we see scope for a valuation re-rating and maintain BUY with a DCF-based target price of Rp1,500. Malay...
The extension of vehicle trade-in subsidies into 2026 enhances policy continuity and consumer confidence, together forming a clear policy tailwind for a more sustainable sector outlook. Supply-side measures aimed at curbing cut-throat competition under the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to ease price wars and stabilise industry margins and earnings expectations. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELLs: Li Auto.
Top Stories Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary, pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to an uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers. ...
Greater China Economics | PMI December Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, back in the expansionary zone for the first time since March. Non-manufacturing PMI also improved at 50.2 (+0.7pt mom), driven by a rebound in construction activity, while services PMI remained slightly contractionary pointing to weak domestic demand. Enterprise PMI showed divergent trends, with large firms leading the improvement. Overall, the December data points to uneven recovery despite the positive headline numbers....
The phasing out of local car trade-in subsidies has hammered auto sales. PEV sales fell 17% yoy during the first week of December. Subsidies will resume in early-26 and trigger a sales rebound. We expect PV sales and EV sales to grow 4.9% and over 20.0% in 2026 respectively, driven by exports. Geely is catching up with BYD in terms of market share (12.1% vs 13.8%). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
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