Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK95.00) - No chill in krill

Aker BioMarine reported a mixed Q1 with weak revenue offset by stronger than expected margins and maintained guidance. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK95 (105) on the soft near-term revenue outlook and slightly lower estimates.

Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Mixed report

We consider this a mixed report for Aker BioMarine, including revenues significantly below expectations, but with EBITDA and net profit above and reiterated guidance. We expect only minor changes to consensus adj. EBITDA 2021e on the back of the report. We consider a neutral share price reaction warranted.

Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - A bumpy start to the year

We are significantly below consensus ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 on 29 April). We expect lower adj. EBITDA YOY given a tough comparable, on top of negative timing effects due to the weak harvest in Q4, a negative revenue impact from South Korea still below peak levels, poor aqua sales driven by seasonality and a still-weak trend for Kori. On a more positive note, harvesting looks to be on track so far in Q1. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to NOK105 (120).

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Aker Biomarine (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Krill your darlings

Aker BioMarine reported a weak Q4, with soft guidance for 2021 on lower than expected harvest volumes and growth in the brand segment. We have downgraded to HOLD (Buy) and cut our target price to NOK120 (140) on lower estimates.

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Q4 a tad soft, and weak guidance

We consider this a weak report for Aker BioMarine, including figures slightly below expectations and soft guidance for 2021 . We expect 15% negative revisions to consensus 2021 EBITDA on the back of the report and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Harvesting volumes set to recove...

Ahead of the Q4 results (due at 07:00 CET on 16 February), we believe Aker BioMarine will deliver on its harvesting, with favourable production costs in H1e supporting margins in H2e. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK140 (120) to reflect lower near-term operational harvesting risk and several recent announcements crystallising longer-term value.

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Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Novel protein launch to add upsi...

Aker BioMarine announced this morning the launch of INVI, a novel protein for human consumption, tapping into a potential global protein market of USD34bn. In our current SOTP of NOK192/share, we have not included any value contribution from a protein plant. However, Aker BioMarine plans to ramp up production of INVI towards 5,000 MT per year, set to generate USD80m–100m in revenues by 2029, with the first product out in 2022/2023. We see potential upside of NOK13/share and believe a positive sh...

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Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Circularity as a Service next

Aker BioMarine announced it will launch a new company called AION, which will offer Circularity as a Service to companies with a desire to recycle waste and re-use materials. Although, it is still early days, we believe this represents a unique way for Aker BioMarine to leverage on its knowledge and competence in the re-use and recycling of plastic. The market potential could be significant given that the recycling-based profit pool is estimated to reach USD60bn by 2030. We have no value for Aio...

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Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Sales miss, but set for full-yea...

As expected, Aker BioMarine had a weak Q3, badly hit by low harvesting volumes. However, we find it positive that the company still believes the 2020 guidance is within reach, given the increased onshore production efficiency and that the Kori brand launch should be moving in the right direction. We reiterate our BUY and NOK120 target price.

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Weak results as expected

We consider this a neutral report for Aker BioMarine with EBITDA in line with our expectations, although we were somewhat surprised by the weak top line. We expect only minor changes to consensus on the back of the report and believe a neutral share price reaction is warranted.

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK120.00) - Go easy on the ice

We are cautious ahead of Aker BioMarine’s Q3 results (due on 30 October at 07:00 CET), as we believe strong performance in its land-based operations might not be sufficient to offset the negative impact of challenging ice conditions on its 2020 guidance. Nevertheless, we reiterate our BUY, as we continue to find the valuation attractive, but have cut our target price to NOK120 (130) to reflect reduced estimates.

Beat in the most important quarter

Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK130.00) - Licence to k(r)ill

With a dominant market share, superior harvesting capacity, and a fully integrated value chain, Aker BioMarine is the leading force in the attractive krill market. On top of this comes its ambition to create a USD100m Omega-3 consumer brand by 2025. We initiate coverage with a BUY and NOK130 target price.

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