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Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.9, +16%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €53, +39%) Altice Fra...

One of the prominent features of the recent results season for France was a seeming shift in strategy from SFR, as it focused on subs over ARPU.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Good quarter, Vodacom price target to ZA...

The Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators performed well in Q1 with service revenue trends accelerating, solid Fintech and sequentially stable margins.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Nigerian Telcos Strong start to the year, full price increase boost y...

Local currency growth accelerated to above 40% in Q1, and is likely to continue to accelerate in Q2 driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and stabilising macro.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets

With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Credit Morning 06/02/2025

Flos B&B Italia: lower results and increased leverage in Q1|Announcement by the Gabonese Government to ban crude manganese export from 2029|Eutelsat is reportedly in talks with investors to raise € 1.5bn (Bloomberg)|

Carole Braudeau
  • Carole Braudeau

Morning Crédit 02/06/2025

Flos B&B Italia : résultats en repli et augmentation du levier auT1|Annonce du Gouvernement gabonais d’interdire les exportations de manganèse brut à partir de 2029|Eutelsat discuterait avec des investisseurs pour lever 1,5 md EUR (Bloomberg)|

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...

It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.

Vodafone Group: 1 director

A director at Vodafone Group bought 356,000 shares at 72p and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +59%) Q1 25: Group trends accelerating driven b...

MTN has reported a solid set of Q1 results with service revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating again. Therefore, service revenue continued to trend above the MT guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 300p, +90%) Q4 25: Solid finish; underlying t...

Airtel Africa has reported a solid set of Q4 results with a continued improvement in underlying trends and lower than expected capex. However, shares are down 8% today. We think this is driven by the delay in the IPO of the Mobile Money business to H1 2026 and the lack of commentary around the second tranche of the share buyback as well as some profit taking. Operationally trends are strong and so we remain Buyers with a price target of 300p.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +58%) MTN Uganda – Q1 25 Quick Take: Slower top...

MTN Uganda has reported a slower set of Q1 results due to the MTR cut. However, margins were solid and OpFCF growth inflected. The company has reiterated its medium-term guidance.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

MTN (Buy, TP: ZAR190, +60%) MTN Rwanda – Q1 25: Still mixed but MT gu...

MTN Rwanda has reported a somewhat mixed set of Q1 numbers. On the one hand, service revenue trends slowed, impacted by strong competition. On the other hand, EBITDA growth is back into positive territory and low capex spend this quarter translated into solid OpFCF

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth

We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Global EM Telcos & Towers Still rising – NSR GEM Top-10 May ‘25 Updat...

Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

South African Telcos Continuous (modest) improvements; CY24 H2 review

H2 was a better semester for the SA Telcos. Service revenue and KPI trends continued to (modestly) improve and capex intensity continued to reduce.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Vodacom price target to ZAR180; Q4 24 re...

Q4 was a solid quarter for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) operators with trends accelerating across the board. Trends are likely to accelerate further, mainly driven by Nigeria going from Zero to Hero.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €15.4, +24%) Q1 25: Solid numbers, guidance reiterat...

Orange has reported a solid set of results, with Telco revenue and EBITDA in-line with consensus expectations; the important French SR trends are slightly weaker (but ahead of consensus expectations), but all guidance for Group and divisions (including France) has been reiterated.

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