reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
South African Telcos Solid H1 but expect prepaid weakness; CY25 H1 re...
Despite a small slowdown in MSR trends, the SA market saw further improvements in total revenue growth, EBITDA and OpFCF margins in H1. Telkom continued to gain revenue share in mobile, driven by prepaid while Vodacom continued to gain share in fixed. Trends on the SA market have been improving since two years ago, helped by the reduction in loadshedding and an improvement in the macro environment.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers First down month, AMX into the Top-10 for T...
After 8 extremely strong months, September bucked the trend. 6 of our Top Picks saw profit taking with only Airtel Africa, Millicom, Telefonica Brasil and LILAC posting positive returns. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. Having strongly outperformed we switch out Millicom for AMX which we now see as a cheaper, lower risk, way to play Latin American telcos.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...
Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Why you should be reading the Tariff Tracker – a leading SR indicator
We publish monthly front book pricing data in our Tariff Tracker product. In this report we show some new analysis looking at how front book tariffs are a good leading indicator for service revenue trends in mobile and fixed, including new work looking at discounted and undiscounted prices.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Continuing strong: NSR GEM Top-10 September...
August was a rather eventful month for two of top picks as LILAC announced the Puerto Rican asset separation and Kyivstar, the Ukraine arm of VEON, successfully listed on the NASDAQ (see our initiation HERE). All of our top picks performed well again. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. We make our first change to the list, swapping TIM Brasil for Telefonica Brasil.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q1 FY26 review: Strong but moderation expected as it la...
Mobile trends accelerated with margin expansion a recurring theme across the board. Both Jio and Bharti have recently discontinued their lowest entry pack which should sustain ARPU in the low-double digits, however the bullishness in mobile trajectory appears to have already been reflected in consensus.
Bharti Airtel Ltd: 6 directors
A director at Bharti Airtel Ltd sold 71,000,000 shares at 1,814.080INR and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another monster month: NSR GEM Top-10 Augus...
Our top picks performed very strongly again in July, marked by a strong recovery from VEON, Millicom and IHS Towers alongside continued momentum at Singtel and Airtel Africa. Heading into earnings season, we continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Another decent month: NSR GEM Top-10 July ‘...
Our picks largely had a slightly slower month in June, with VEON seeing sharp profit taking, but a recovery in some of the weaker stocks such as LILAK offset to continue to see overall valuations rise. We continue to see the EM Telco cycle in an upswing. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. In our view, our picks remain heavily undervalued, so we make no changes to the list.
Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive
India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos M&A Cycle in-bound; buy the targets
With sentiment, leverage and cash flow all improving for EM Telcos we think we are approaching the point of the cycle where M&A is going to become more prevalent, and shift from bearish (in-market consolidation), to bullish (out of footprint). Investors should consider building portfolios based on likely targets. Who are they?
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Bull market continues – NSR GEM Top-10 June...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Airtel Africa (Buy, TP: 300p, +90%) Q4 25: Solid finish; underlying t...
Airtel Africa has reported a solid set of Q4 results with a continued improvement in underlying trends and lower than expected capex. However, shares are down 8% today. We think this is driven by the delay in the IPO of the Mobile Money business to H1 2026 and the lack of commentary around the second tranche of the share buyback as well as some profit taking. Operationally trends are strong and so we remain Buyers with a price target of 300p.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Chris Hoare
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy
Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in our 4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments. A historic selloff ensued. We then discussed last week (4/8/25 Compass) ho...
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