Following the Q3 profit warning, we have cut our 2021e adj. EBITDA by c40% on the weaker than expected harvesting volumes, translating into lower gross margins. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK45 (65) owing to negative estimate revisions and a subdued near-term outlook.
Aker BioMarine just released a Q3 profit warning and cut its guidance for 2021 on the back of weaker than expected harvesting. We expect significant negative estimate revisions to consensus 2021–2022e EBITDA on the back of the report and believe a significant negative share price reaction is warranted.
Aker BioMarine reported a mixed Q2 with adj. EBITDA slightly above expectations but with a drop in the 2021 and longer-term aspirational 2024 EBITDA guidance. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK65 (84) following estimate cuts and the likely negative near-term earnings momentum.
We consider this a negative report for Aker BioMarine, including results broadly in line with expectations, but with weak harvesting and soft guidance. We expect 10% negative revisions to consensus 2021e adj. EBITDA on the back of the report and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.
We are largely in line with consensus ahead of the Q2 results (due at 07:00 CET on 14 July). We expect revenues to be down YOY on continued headwinds from South Korea and Kori, partly offset by improved aqua sales, supported by Q1 harvesting volumes. On a more positive note, harvesting looks to be on track so far in Q2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK84 (95).
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