We forecast 4% organic growth YOY for Q1, partly driven by a strong trend in Life Science. As the new organisational structure implemented in 2024 begins to take effect, we expect growth to gradually improve further (organic and acquired). We have cut our 2025–2026e EBITA by 4–3% and reiterate our HOLD and SEK300 target price.
Following efforts to strengthen its long-term competitiveness in Q4, we expect a 4% YOY decline in organic growth in Q1 – but then a gradual recovery through 2025, led by a cautiously improving installation market, as highlighted in the Q4 CEO statements. We have cut our 2025e and 2026e EBITA by 3% respectively and thus lowered our target price to SEK46 (48), but with still-healthy upside potential, we reiterate our BUY.
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Sales in Q4 fell 7% YOY (vs consensus -4%), of which organic growth was 7%. EBITA was SEK195m (15% above consensus), corresponding to an EBITA margin of 5.4%, while the adj. EBITA margin was 7.2%. FCF was strong, driven by a working capital release, as is normal at the end of the year. We have cut our 2025e EBITA by 5%, but raised our 2026e by 2%. We have lowered our target price to SEK48 (50), but reiterate our BUY.
Sales growth was 7% (versus consensus of 5%), with a 2% beat versus consensus on EBITA and 6% on EPS. The higher EBITA was driven by improvement in Process, Energy & Water (PE&W) and Technology & Systems Solutions (T&SS), as well as a recovery in Infrastructure & Construction (I&C). The group EBITA margin was flat YOY at 14.6%, in line with our estimate. We have raised our 2025–2026e EBITA by 1% and our target price to SEK300 (290), while we reiterate our HOLD.
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