reports
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
BW Energy: Q1 2025 operational update
BW Energy: Q1 2025 operational update Q1 2025 operational update BW Energy will publish financial figures for Q1 2025 and host a presentation at Hotel Continental, Oslo, on Monday, 5 May 2025. Net production to BW Energy was 3.2 million barrels of oil (mmbbls) in Q1 2025, equal to 36,000 bbls per day, from the Dussafu licence in Gabon (73.5% working interest) and the Golfinho field (100% working interest) in Brazil. Volume (mmbbls)Q1 2025Q4 2024Net Production3.23.1Dussafu2.62.5Golfinho0.70.6 Net volume sold3.73.2Dussafu*3.22.7Golfinho0.50.5 Average realised price (USD/bbl) Dussafu7...
BW Energy: Makes Final Investment Decision for the Golfinho Boost proj...
BW Energy: Makes Final Investment Decision for the Golfinho Boost project in Brazil BW Energy makes Final Investment Decision for the Golfinho Boost project in Brazil BW Energy is pleased to announce final investment decision (FID) for the Golfinho Boost project, aiming to increase uptime, reduce operating expenses and add approximately 3,000 barrels per day of incremental oil production from 2027 at the Golfinho field offshore Brazil. The project includes multiple measures aimed at boosting production efficiency and increasing recoverable reserves by approximately 12 million barre...
- Steffen Evjen
Stress testing
We have stress-tested our coverage universe at a USD60/bbl oil price, concluding that most names remain dependent on rising oil prices to warrant upside potential from current share prices. Moreover, unless oil prices move higher, we see increasing risk of cuts in shareholder distributions for Vår Energi and Equinor, while the risk appears lower for Aker BP. Overall, we remain cautious as macro risks remain tilted to the downside. We continue to prefer Aker BP as it screens best on valuation and...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor, Aker BP, and Vår Energi released their Q1 trading updates. Equinor’s realised liquids prices were broadly in line with consensus across all segments. Aker BP reported a modest production beat, 2% above consensus, with realised liquids and gas prices largely as expected. Vår Energi’s Q1 production was 2% below our estimate and consensus, while realised liquids prices met expectations and gas prices exceeded them by 4–11%.
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published previews for most of our coverage universe. For Aker BP, we estimate solid Q1 production of 450kboed, with our EBITDA forecast 12% above consensus, ahead of the trading update on 7 April. For Vår Energi, we expect a slow start to the year, with Q1e production of 277kboed, leaving our EBITDA c7% below consensus, ahead of the trading update on 11 April. In other news, Johan Castberg reached first oil this week, with ramp-up expected through Q2 2025.
- Steffen Evjen
Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Set for strong FCF growth
Ahead of the Q1 report, due at 07:00 CET on 21 May, we forecast net production of 12.7kboed (no reliable consensus). Due to a significant underlift and limited crude volumes sold in the quarter, we estimate EBITDA of USD-2m (no reliable consensus). After several years of missing production guidance and investor expectations, we believe meeting 2025 guidance of 11–13kboed (we forecast 11.6kboed), supported by strong FCF growth and attractive shareholder distributions, would warrant a re-rating of...
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy (Buy, TP: NOK33.00) - Still awaiting Maromba FID
Ahead of BW Energy’s Q1 trading update (due at c07:00 CET on 16 April), we forecast net production of ~35kboed (no reliable consensus). With Maromba still awaiting a final investment decision (FID), contributing to meaningful capex in the coming years, alongside an appraisal campaign at Kudu in H2e, we estimate muted FCF until Maromba production commences in 2028e. Still, the valuation screens attractively at a ~40% discount to our NAV. We reiterate our BUY and NOK33 target price.
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
AKAST AKASTOR ASA
KOG KONGSBERG GRUPPEN ASA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
ARCHERO ARCHER
AKER AKER ASA CLASS A
DNO DNO ASA CLASS A
TGS TGS-NOPEC GEOPHYSICAL COMPANY ASA
ODL ODFJELL DRILLING
AKSOO AKER SOLUTIONS ASA
BWO BW OFFSHORE LIMITED
PRS PROSAFE
OKEA OKEA
BWE BW ENERGY
VAR VAR ENERGI ASA
SEAPT-NO SEACREST PETROLEO
DOFG DOF GROUP ASA
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- ABGSC Oil & Oil Services Research
- John Olaisen
- Oliver Dunvold
- ABGSC Energy Research
- Daniel Vårdal Haugland
- John Olaisen
- Njål Kleiven
- Oliver Dunvold
- Stian Wibstad
BW Energy: granted extension to the Golfinho licence production phase ...
BW Energy: granted extension to the Golfinho licence production phase to 2042 by ANP BW Energy granted extension to the Golfinho licence production phase to 2042 by ANP BW Energy is pleased to announce the extension of the Golfinho licence by Brazilian oil and gas regulator ANP. The production phase under the Golfinho concession contract has been extended to 2042 from previously 2031, following ANP’s approval of the Company’s field development plan in November 2024. "The extension supports our long-term plans for developing the Golfinho field, initially through improved operational...
- Steffen Evjen
BW Energy: Enters into new increased Reserve Based Lending facility
BW Energy: Enters into new increased Reserve Based Lending facility BW Energy enters into new increased Reserve Based Lending facility BW Energy is pleased to announce an up to USD 500 million Reserve Based Lending (RBL) facility. The new facility replaces the USD 200 million RBL from 2022, which was increased to USD 300 million in 2023. The funds will be used together with cash-flow from operations to finance the further development of the Company. The facility has an initial commitment of USD 400 million, which can be expanded with an additional USD 100 million. The senior secured long-...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics and discussion
This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...
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