Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB: 2 directors

A director at H & M Hennes & Mauritz AB bought 1,990,000 shares at 173.942SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

H2 should be much, much better

'24e EBIT (core) slashed as tough winter weighs on H1. Growth outlook remains credible and attractive. '25e-'26e P/E 9x-8x: BUY, TP NOK 39

Ice Fish Farm (Hold, TP: NOK30.00) - Q1 miss and soft guidance

Q1 operating EBIT of NOK28m was NOK74m below our estimate and NOK56m below consensus, mainly driven by higher farming costs than expected, but also lower realised prices. Q2 volume guidance was soft versus our estimate, while 2024 guidance was unchanged at 21.5kt. Based on the report, we have made our harvest profile more back-end loaded for 2024–2026e, increased cost/kg and made minor revisions to realised prices. In sum, we have lowered our 2024–2026e EPS by 14.7–52.4%. We have cut our target ...

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Discovery in Gabon. Reiterating producti...

• The Hibiscus South exploration well on the Dussafu permit has encountered 25 m of pay in an overall hydrocarbon column of 35 m in the Gamba formation. • This discovery could add ~5-6 mmbbl gross recoverable reserves (~1 mmbbl net to Panoro). • The Hibiscus South structure is a separate accumulation with a deeper oil-water contact than the nearby Hibiscus Field. • Importantly, a production well could now be drilled at Hibiscus South and tied to the MaBoMo facility, which would boost the overal...

Q1: EBIT well below on biological issues

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK41.00) - Positive prospects

At its Q1 trading update, Panoro Energy reported net production of 9.6kboed, in line with our 9.5kboed forecast. We estimate EBITDA of USD42m (Bloomberg consensus at USD41m) ahead of the Q1 results (due at c07:00 CET on 23 May). We view the recent discovery at Hibiscus South as accretive to our NAV by ~NOK1/share, illustrating the strong prospectivity and commerciality at the Dussafu licence. We reiterate our BUY and NOK41 target price.

US shale: limited growth expected

Our Q1 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). The companies now expect fewer tailwinds from cost deflation, primarily due to operational efficiencies. Our survey also suggested capex down ~2% YOY, as companies guide for flat activity. For Q1, our universe spent 102% of its operating cash flow, split c50/50 capex and shareholder distributions.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Weekly news, topics & discussion

Key takeaways from this week are: 1) BlueNord’s Q1 figures were in line with our estimates, and due to technical issues, the Tyra plateau ramp-up was prolonged to mid-Q4 (2024 production guidance reduced from >40kboed to ~35kboed); 2) DNO’s Q1 report showed net production slightly above consensus, and it announced it has acquired stakes in five fields in the Norne area from Vår Energi, adding ~3kboed of net production near-term; and 3) Panoro Energy’s Q1 trading update showed net production of 9...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 03/05/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.75 per share: Raising new equity to fund a high impact activity programme – ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share. One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026. The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at ...

BW Energy (Buy, TP: NOK33.00) - Boosts liquidity at attractive terms

BW Energy reported net production of 27.2kboed for Q1, slightly below our ~29kboed estimate, with production from Dussafu broadly in line with our forecast, while production from Golfinho was slightly below. With its Q1 trading update, it also announced a sale/leaseback agreement for the MaBoMo production facility, boosting liquidity by USD110m at what we consider attractive financing terms (SOFR+3.75%). We see the transaction as marginally positive to our NAV. We reiterate our BUY and have incr...

If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

Another step in the right direction

Q1'24e EBIT of NOK 81m (Factset cons. NOK 88m). '24e EBIT -12% on weaker price realisation in H1. Strong growth ahead: BUY, TP up to NOK 39 (36).