HEADLINES: • Romania macro: discussing a new fiscal package with the EU • Romanian banks: government to increase tax on gross revenues to 4% NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy – Poland: bigger, happier but also more divided • Poland macro: MPC reduces the policy rate by 25bps • Text: 1Q25-26 (calendar 2Q25) preliminary results – MRR of USD 7.17m (up 0.7% qoq, up 1.4% yoy); 928 net LiveChat customers outflow NEGATIVE • Mo-BRUK: guiding for PLN 33m outflow related to the 2018-19 increased fees; PLN 50-...
EME Equity Market – June 2025 All EME indices in the green in June, with a rebound in Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 6.9% in USD terms. The Turkish ISE 30 Index was the best performer in our region, recouping the losses from the previous month and adding +6.6% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX and the Polish WIG indices added 3.1% and 2.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively, followed closely by the Romanian BET and the Greek ASE, with both adding 2.0% mom i...
HEADLINES: • Polish banks: Finance Ministry mulls levy on obligatory reserve interest revenues NEGATIVE • Georgia Capital: sells 20% stake in water utility for USD 70.4m POSITIVE • Czech Republic macro: CNB on hold • InPost/Shoper: InPost Pay records 8.5m users, and operates in over 2.5k online stores NEUTRAL • Metlen: launches tender share exchange offer from Metlen SA to Metlen PLC, as part of the planned LSE listing NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • EMEA airlines: disruption in Middle East operations • Romanian banks: draft government plan suggests new tax on banks is being considered • MOL: to acquire Budapest University of Technology and Economics NEGATIVE • Graphisoft Park: sells residential land plot POSITIVE • CEZ: AGM approves dividend of CZK 47/share NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: to invest in solar power plant in Bulgaria NEUTRAL • OPAP: Greece invites bidders for State lotteries licence NEUTRAL • Short News (BFT, CDR)
EME Equity Market – May 2025 EME indices mostly in the green in May, apart from Türkiye. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% mom in EUR and USD terms. The Greek ASE index (+7.8% mom) was the best performer, followed by the Czech PX (+6.6% mom) and Romanian BET indices (+5.0% mom), the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+2.0% mom; all in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 Index was, again, the worst performer, with a more modest decline (-1.4% mom in EUR terms) this time.
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 1Q25 EBITDA 7% below our forecast, but a substantial 24% miss vs. the consensus NEGATIVE • Doosan Skoda Power: weak 1Q25 – EBITDA down 70% yoy NEGATIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: 1Q25 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 5% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • Cyfrowy Polsat: Liechtenstein court dismisses Zygmunt Solorz's lawsuit against his children POSITIVE • Pepco Group: 1H25 slightly below expectations on worsening Poundland; lfl improvement at Pepco; another EUR 234m impair...
HEADLINES • Budimex: growth acceleration on the horizon (upgraded to BUY) • Halyk Bank: 1Q25 results highlights before the call POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA 15% above our forecast, but April sales disappoint NEGATIVE • GEVORKYAN: strong 1Q25 - EBITDA 15% above our expectations; 2025E conservative guidance POSITIVE • Titan Cement: completes divestment of its 75% stake in Adocim in Eastern Türkiye NEUTRAL • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: key takeaways from our call with the CF...
HEADLINES: • Magyar Telekom: 1Q25 results review – EBITDA +24% yoy, 4% above the consensus; solid 2025E guidance reiterated POSITIVE • Ignitis Group: 1Q25 adjusted EBITDA 20% above our expectations, driven by strong Green Capacities POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 1Q25 – recurring income higher yoy, and a small revaluation loss • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A.: strong 1Q25 gross profit margin sustainable in FY25E POSITIVE • InPost: 1Q25 in line with expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance maintained; soft do...
Graphisoft Park has booked a steady stream of recurring income, with the FFO at around EUR 4m in 1Q25, double-digit growth yoy and ahead of our estimate. The bottom line was affected negatively by a small revaluation loss (EUR 7m, or c.3% of the value of the portfolio). We are not very troubled by the effect on the book value, but we do share concerns regarding the risk premium that investors may apply for Hungarian assets, the low investment liquidity (suggesting a lack of buyers), and the heav...
HEADLINES: • ING BSK: 1Q25 results in line with expectations and our annual 2025E expectations NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: beat in 1Q25; Biedronka margin stabilised, despite adverse calendar effect; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: dull 1Q25 results; dividend recommendation due later in May; uncertainty over impact of sale of retail operations persisting NEUTRAL • Budimex: 1Q25 EBITDA misses forecast slightly, backlog down marginally qoq, but rising amount of pending contracts...
FY24 as resilient as could be given multiple headwinds… – 2024 left us with mixed feelings, with Jumbo delivering just 4% adj. EBITDA and c3% adj. EPS growth on 6.3% sales growth, due to mild gross margin compression and cost deleveraging from new capacity (c0.7pps increase in opex/sales). That said, the actual performance eclipsed the overly cautious message echoed by mgt last summer (flat net income), validating the resilience of the business model. FCF was weaker than our expectation due to ...
FY24 as resilient as could be given multiple headwinds… – 2024 left us with mixed feelings, with Jumbo delivering just 4% adj. EBITDA and c3% adj. EPS growth on 6.3% sales growth, due to mild gross margin compression and cost deleveraging from new capacity (c0.7pps increase in opex/sales). That said, the actual performance eclipsed the overly cautious message echoed by mgt last summer (flat net income), validating the resilience of the business model. FCF was weaker than our expectation due to ...
HEADLINES: • Brisa: reports weak 1Q25 numbers, as expected NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 1Q25 – first take broadly in line • VIGO Photonics: full 4Q24 results – miss on adjusted EBITDA, slight beat on net profit NEUTRAL • Doosan Skoda Power: 2024 P&L numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • PCF Group: post-4Q24 earnings call takeaways NEUTRAL • Cimsa: 1Q25 conference call takeaways • Akcansa: 1Q25 conference call takeaways • Solutions by STC: 1Q25 conference call takeaways • CEZ: to...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak set of results in 1Q25 NEGATIVE • Akbank: 1Q25 highlights – management cautious on margin, but positive on fees • Yapi Kredi: 1Q25 highlights, before the call – beat on NII and fees (evolved better than the guidance) • Solutions by STC: weak 1Q25 financial results, disappointing revenue growth NEGATIVE • Poland macro: April data paint an encouraging picture • PCF Group: PLN 173m write-offs to hit the 2024 results, related mostly to Bifrost NEGATIVE • Richter: positive ...
HEADLINES: • Halyk Bank: efficient frontier (stays BUY) • Diagnostyka: 4Q24 prelims and DPS proposal ahead of expectations POSITIVE • Kety: 1Q25 results in line with the preliminaries, PLN 48.78 DPS proposed NEUTRAL • Kety: new strategy assumes PLN 1.35bn in EBITDA in 2029E, close to our forecast NEUTRAL • CEZ: said to be nearing sale of nuclear SPV to the State POSITIVE • Poland macro: mixed results in March • Greece macro: 2024 budget surplus triggers one-off fiscal easing this year • Kazatomp...
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