Gentian reported Q1 sales of cNOK20m, fairly in line with our expectations. The most unexpected part of the report was the decision to push back the launch of the NT-proBNP assay by one quarter. This has no impact on our valuation, and we highlight that the delay does not reflect an issue with the actual assay. The planned launch of the SARS-CoV-2 antibody test in Q4 2021 is still on track. We have made only minor adjustments to our estimates and reiterate our BUY and NOK81 target price.
Gentian reported record sales in Q4 and ended 2020 with 22% organic top-line growth. We believe the most promising potential share-price catalysts in 2021 would be an announcement of a commercial partnership for GCAL® and an unveiling of the next pipeline asset. We continue to like the growth story, and forecast 25% organic sales growth in 2021. We reiterate our BUY and NOK81 target price.
We expect Q4 sales growth of c6% as outpatient visits started to rebound. We forecast 2020 sales of cNOK61m (+27% YOY). In our view, the most promising potential share price catalysts would be an announcement of a commercial partnership for GCAL® and an unveiling of the next pipeline asset. We have only tweaked our estimates, and forecast a 2020–2022e sales CAGR of 31%. We reiterate our BUY and NOK81 target price.
We initiate coverage with a BUY and NOK81 target price. We believe Gentian is well positioned to meet the needs of clinical laboratories and, with a track record of successful product launches, is now ready to move into high-value market segments. We forecast sales growth of 29% until EBITDA breakeven in 2022. While visibility on the pipeline is limited, making it difficult to value, we believe there could be ‘hidden gems’ that would be significant share price triggers when announced.
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