Kahoot (Sell, TP: NOK35.00) - No potential upside from here

While we have made only minor adjustments to our 2023–2025 estimates following the preliminary Q2 results, we have raised our target price to NOK35 (26), in line with the recommended offer to take Kahoot private. We have downgraded to SELL (BUY) amid the share price spike after the announcement on Friday. In our view, a competitive bid seems less likely, and we therefore believe there is no potential upside at the current share price.

Kahoot (Buy, TP: NOK26.00) - A bit of a slow start

Although growth KPIs showed indications of weakness in Q1, there are some encouraging signs. We believe user engagement trends could be starting to improve, but Kahoot needs higher-paying net adds or high-volume contracts for the low-ARPU products to achieve what. We have lowered our 2023–2025e EBITDA by 7–18%. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK26 (30).

Kahoot (Buy, TP: NOK30.00) - Cashing in on continued growth

We still believe 2023 EBITDA consensus is too low and have raised our forecasts further, on a likely firmer foothold on growth KPIs and revenues in Q1, building on positive elements from Q4. Based on a 5% FCFE yield and a modest 2024e EV/EBITDA of 11.8x combined with 18–24% top-line growth for 2023–2024e, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK30 (16.50).

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Kahoot (Hold, TP: NOK16.50) - Brake lights on

Kahoot’s pre-announced Q4 results show an e-learning business subject to a major billings slowdown, while margins held up well. Our lowered forecasts assume that there are temporary execution effects hampering Clever, where billings growth came to an abrupt halt from 40%+ YOY in Q3. Assuming Clever returns to at least modest growth and cost discipline remains high, EBITDA growth should continue, albeit at a slower pace. Still, risks are high, and we reiterate our HOLD ahead of the Q4 report on 1...

Kahoot! - Lower growth, but attractive valuation

~45% growth for Clever, but only 13% excl. Clever… …leads us to reduce ’23e-‘24e invoiced revenue by 7-8% Still attractive valuation at 5.2-8.5% ’22-‘23e FCF yield

Kahoot (Hold, TP: NOK20.00) - Cheer up, it was not that bad

We found the Q3 report mixed. As we had suspected some investors had placed a degree of hope in the guidance. We have made minor forecast revisions, raised our target price to NOK20 (19) and upgraded to HOLD (SELL) as we see a more balanced risk/reward.

Kahoot! - Lowered 2022 cash flow guidance

Q3: Inv. rev. in-line, but lower than expected cash flow New FY’22 guidance: USD 175-180m vs. cons 177m Lower FY’22 cash flow guidance likely to be in focus

Kahoot! - Record cash flow in Q3

Q3e: Record cash flow of USD 18m We expect new ‘22 target of “exceed USD 180m” BUY: 2023e FCF yield of 8.5%

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Kahoot (Sell, TP: NOK19.00) - Focus on Q4 guidance

We expect record-high cash flows in Q3 but consider a guidance cut likely and 2023–2024e revenue consensus too high. While we appreciate Kahoot’s strong position in the school segment, its cash-flow generation and new strategic main owner, we believe the combination of premium 2022e multiples, continued post-pandemic user-base erosion and lower guidance could put pressure on the stock. We reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to NOK19 (21).

Kahoot! - Gets an experienced EdTech investor onboard

Softbank sells entire stake (15%) to General Atlantic … which is an experienced EdTech investor Strong positive signal that GA invests in Kahoot

Kahoot! - Third most-used app in US schools

Third most-used app in US schools in 2021/22 … while usage among corporations grows by ~50% y-o-y BUY: 8% ‘23e FCF yield, 10% for Kahoot excl. Clever

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Kahoot (Sell, TP: NOK21.00) - Growth engine 1 coughing

Kahoot’s QOQ ARR growth was only 13% in Q2. Excluding Clever, QOQ billings growth was -1%. While EBITDA beat forecasts due to progress in Clever and tight control on payroll, we believe these could be less reliable factors to offset the waning viral growth on Kahoot’s platform. We have made only minor changes to our 2023–2024 forecasts but have downgraded to SELL (HOLD) following yesterday’s share-price rally, with a new target price of NOK21 (20).

Kahoot! - Cash flow to increase 4x in H2e

Strong Q2: low costs proved business model scalability We lift adj. EBITDA estimates by 16% for ‘22-‘23e BUY: cash flow to increase significantly from Q3e

Kahoot! - Adj. EBITDA 28% above

Invoiced revenue +3%, adj. EBITDA +28% Clever better and ~30% organic growth on Kahoot platform BUY: Cash flow to increase significantly from Q3

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Kahoot (Hold, TP: NOK20.00) - Facing headwinds

We have downgraded Kahoot to HOLD (BUY) with a target price of NOK20 (36) amid an increasingly challenging macro environment, recognising that earnings are highly sensitive to lower revenue growth. Our view remains that Kahoot is a SaaS company with significant growth potential but that headwinds are likely to dominate over tailwinds for the quarters ahead.