EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Zagreb Stock Exchange: remains BUY, following the share price dip (stays BUY) • NLB Banka: solid performance ytd, but price remains high (stays SELL) • Isbank: 2Q22 highlights - good revenue performance, COR guidance more positive vs. peers • CEZ: 2Q22 results - large EBITDA miss, due to hedging revaluations, FY guidance hiked • PKO BP: may lose another CEO in less than two years, launches EMTN programme up to EUR 4bn NEGATIVE • Allegro: accusations of abuse of dominant position...
In this report, we have updated our estimates for the 2Q22 numbers, reported recently, while we keep our SELL on the name. We calculate our new 12-month price target (PT) at MKD 23,435/share, which offers downside of c.9%. While our outlook for NLB Banka ad Skopje is generally positive, our SELL recommendation is a valuation call, as we see the bank’s shares as expensive in the market currently, mostly as our P/BV and P/E multiples for 2022-24E remain 19-37% above the frontier peer group, while ...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Erdemir: attractive dividend yield, offset by cost pressures (HOLD - reinitiation of coverage) • Titan Cement: recovering lost ground (stays BUY) • Erste Bank: posts very solid 2Q22 results and guidance mix POSITIVE • Otokar: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Eurobank: strong 2Q22, guidance upgraded for 2022E • National Bank: another solid beat, with upside risks for 2022E forecasts • NLB Banka: 2Q22 results review - annualised ROE reaches as much as 20.8% • Zagreb Stock E...
HEADLINES: • Polish mobile gaming: new normal, more challenges (Huuuge Games stays BUY, Ten Square Games downgraded to HOLD) • NLB Banka: a good asset for a very high price (stays SELL) • Polish banks: private IPS approved - costs for 2022E, benefit potential beyond 2022E NEUTRAL • European oil and gas monthly: May 2022 • Greece macro: GDP surprises to the upside in 1Q • Kalekim: announces revised 2022E guidance, incorporating Lyksor Chemicals POSITIVE • Conpet: Petrotel Lukoil has until 5 De...
In this report, we maintain our SELL recommendation on NLB Banka, while reducing our price target (PT) by c.13% to MKD 21,095/share, from MKD 24,158/share. The bank continues to perform well, in the current environment, and its future performance should be supported further by the now growing interest rates in North Macedonia. This is likely to continue, supporting the NIMs, profitability and ROEs further, in our view. We continue to appreciate the bank’s solid asset quality and capitalisation l...
EME Equity Market – April 2022 Market performance – regional benchmarks performance rather mixed in April. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 5.3% in EUR terms and by 9.9% in USD. The best-performing market was Turkey, whose equities gained 13.3% in EUR terms and 9.2% in local currency. Russia’s MOEX Index added 9.0% in EUR terms, but declined by 9.6% in local currency. In Greece, the ASE Index advanced by 4.9% in EUR terms, the last to end the month in the black; while Romania’s BET Index rec...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: EU vs. Russia - a marathon, not a sprint • Yapi Kredi: 1Q22 highlights - better than expected in core numbers • Siauliu Bankas: 1Q22 - good start to 2022 • NLB Banka: 1Q22 results review - impairment reversals lift ROE to 18.0% POSITIVE • Allterco: final 4Q21 EBITDA 6% above preliminary result POSITIVE • Alkaloid: 1Q22 results review NEUTRAL • Shoper: management's dividend recommendation, vast majority goes to preference shares, as expected NEUTRAL • Inter C...
HEADLINES: • Jumbo: solid 2H21 results • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q21 results below expectations, dividend proposal of EUR 0.9/share • mBank: to create PLN 192.7m of FX mortgage litigation risk provisions in 1Q22E NEUTRAL • Famur: 4Q21 conference call takeaways NEGATIVE • Jeronimo Martins: Biedronka introducing fixed pricing for 150 basic SKUs by the end of June NEGATIVE • PKO BP: AGM scheduled for 12 May, to vote on the dividend and share buyback among other things • Alior Bank: EGM introduces ch...
EME Equity Market – January 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities lost 9.3%, while Turkish and Hungarian stocks advanced 8.6% and 9.3%, respectively, in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 4.5% in EUR terms and 5.9% in USD. Hungary’s equities were the best performers in January, adding 9.3% in EUR and 5.4% in HUF terms; followed by Turkish equities, with an 8.6% gain in EUR and an 8.8% gain in TRY. In Greece, the ASE Index added 4.9%, while the PX Index, the Czech benchmark, gained ...
HEADLINES: • Greece macro: strong growth, high inflation • Poland macro: NBP President Glapinski reappointed • NLB Banka: 4Q21 results review - solid quarter, with annualised ROE of 15.6% • PGNiG: operating estimates for 4Q21, gas production volumes up 48% • O2 Czech Republic: shares to be withdrawn from trading on Prague Stock Exchange at end-February NEUTRAL • Electrica: looking to contract RON 1.5bn working capital loan for supply • Mobile TeleSystems: New Towers in talks to buy MTS' mo...
EME Equity Market – December 2021 Market performance – despite most markets being in the black, MSCI EM Europe declined by 1.7%. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.7% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms. The Czech PX Index continued with its solid performance and advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 5.1% in CZK. The Romanian BET Index added 7.1% in both EUR and local currency. Turkish equities, represented by the ISE30 Index, grew 5.3% in EUR and 4.2% in TRY. Poland’s WIG20 Index gained 4.8% in ...
HEADLINES: • Kety: strong 4Q21 preliminary figures, reassuring 2022E forecasts POSITIVE • Romanian regulated utilities: monopoly tax expired at end-2021 POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: USD 8m bookings in December 2021 vs. USD 7m in November 2021 POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: December bookings estimate at USD 18m, +6% mom NEUTRAL • AmRest: new long-term incentive plan approved NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: ending the year with a bang • Polish residential real estate: TAG buys Robyg for c.EUR 550m • A...
EME Equity Market – November 2021 Market performance – most markets down, with Czech PX Index (+3.0%) the exception. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 8.9% in EUR terms and 10.7% in USD in November. Prague’s PX Index added 3.0% in EUR terms and 2.3% in local currency, followed by the Romanian BET Index, which declined 3.2% in both EUR and RON terms. Greece’s ASE Index declined by 3.4% in EUR terms, while Hungary’s BUX Index declined by 6.2% in EUR and 5.0% in HUF. The Russian MOEX Index declined 8.6...
HEADLINES: • Komercijalna Banka: too expensive now (downgraded to SELL) • NLB Banka: good story, unattractive price (downgraded to SELL) • PKO BP: delivers solid 3Q21 and marks 12% ROE, even without positive impact of rising interest rates POSITIVE • OTP Bank: 3Q21 results solid, but not exceeding high expectations NEUTRAL • Dino: single-digit miss in 3Q21 NEGATIVE • MOL: 3Q21 results - strong result, beating expectations mildly • Turkcell: 3Q21 results - 9% NI beat, minor guidance upgrade P...
We have had NLB Banka ad Skopje as a Hold since our initiation last year. In the past 12 months, however, the stock has returned 62.3% and we downgrade NLB Banka to SELL in this report, in view of the large increase in the valuation multiples, on our estimates, to 1.6x P/BVs for both 2021 and 2022E. Despite the bank’s growth profile and strong ROEs, north of 14%, on average, over our forecast period, we see them as too excessive, as the premia vs. the peer median now lands at 21-37%. On P/E, the...
EME Equity Market – October 2021 Market performance – most markets end October in the black, WIG20 +4.1%. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 3.6% in EUR terms and 3.4% in USD. Poland was the best-performing equity market, gaining 4.1% in both EUR and PLN terms. The Russian MOEX followed, adding 3.9% in EUR and 1.1% in local currency. The Greek ASE Index added 3.8%, while the Hungarian BUX Index advanced by 2.3% and 2.5% in EUR and local currency, respectively. Turkey’s ISE30 Index gained 0.5% in EUR...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retail: severe penalties announced by the Competition Authority NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: Uzbekistan - new dawn for the reform agenda • Arena Hospitality Group: delivers strong 3Q results POSITIVE • Moscow Exchange: 3Q21 results in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • AmRest: 3Q21 preliminary sales up by 21% yoy NEUTRAL • NLB Banka: 3Q21 results review - solid quarter, on the back of low COR • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q21 - another strong quarter, with a positive outlook ...
HEADLINES: • Wizz Air: float like a butterfly (upgraded to BUY) • HansaMatrix: shortages crimp top line; but down, not out (stays BUY) • Lotos: 3Q estimates - net income above expectations • PGNiG: operating estimates for 3Q21 - production volumes up 13% • Hungary macro: MNB signals protracted tightening cycle, stretching out to 2022E • Public Power Corporation: EGM approves capital hike and HEDNO disposal NEUTRAL • NLB Banka: proposes dividends from 2019 and 2020 profits yielding c.6.5% P...
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