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Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Strong ARR growth in Q4 likely

November premium client ARR growth of USD 5.4m Point to Q4 ARR growth of ~USD 17m (cons USD 14.5m) BUY: high growth and margins set to increase in ‘22e

12/08/21 December 8, 2021 1 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Retention rates improving across the business

Q4 margin guidance below cons, but set to improve in Q1 Retention is improving, big potential in existing client base BUY: high growth and margins set to increase in ‘22e

11/22/21 November 22, 2021 1 EN
Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Free Trial
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater (Buy, TP: NOK76.00) - Growth comes with costs

Meltwater yesterday published its Q3 results with headline figures (adjusted for one-offs) mostly in line with our forecasts and consensus (Q3 ARR pre-announced in October). Updated guidance for somewhat lower profitability in 2021 than we expected could be seen as a negative by the market, but we see the prioritising of growth near-term as a clear positive. We reiterate our BUY and NOK76 target price, and expect Friday’s CMD to be a share price catalyst.

11/17/21 November 17, 2021 14 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Q4 guidance below, more R&D spend in 2022

Small adj. EBITDA miss due to accounting technicalities Q4 guidance below expectations (-4m vs. +8.5m) Higher R&D spend: ’22e adj. EBITDA down 10-15%

11/17/21 November 17, 2021 4 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - 17% annualised organic ARR growth

Q3 ARR growth USD 17m q-o-q: ARR ~1% above cons Social media: 33% organic growth y-o-y (39% of ARR) BUY: 1) high growth, 2) margins point up, 3) low multiple

10/15/21 October 15, 2021 4 EN
Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Free Trial
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater (Buy, TP: NOK76.00) - Favourable trends continue

While Q2 opex was higher than we expected, it was more than justified by the continued acceleration in Meltwater’s ARR growth noted in trading updates through Q3. We have raised our 2021–2023e ARR by 4–5%, but lowered our adj. EBITDA estimates to reflect likely near-term investments in growth. We reiterate our BUY and NOK76 target price.

10/08/21 October 8, 2021 15 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Q3 ARR growth could be +40% vs. cons

Strong September: Q3 growth may be +40% vs. cons If so, this would mean 17% annualized organic growth Market focuses on profitability: margin to rise from Q4

10/07/21 October 7, 2021 4 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Adj. EBITDA below, but strong growth in Q3

Adj. EBITDA below cons, mostly in-line with ABGSC Higher short-term costs should be reflected in share price We expect strong ARR growth in Q3

09/30/21 September 30, 2021 5 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - H2 ARR growth to reveal true potential

~11% organic ARR growth: to accelerate further in H2 Increased confidence: ’22e-’23e EBITDA up 9-16% Fair value of NOK 90/share on ’22 estimates

09/08/21 September 8, 2021 15 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
ECO ECOSYNTHETIX
MWTR MELTWATER ... (+6)

Sector Fast Comment - Norwegian SaaS Q2’21: Investing for growth

Pexip and HOC had highest organic ARR growth in Q2 Best margin: SmartCraft, best net retention: EcoOnline EV/sales point to most upside in Meltwater and Mercell

ECO ECOSYNTHETIX
MWTR MELTWATER
HOC HOUSE OF CONTROL GROUP
ORN ORN SOFTWARE
PEXIP PEXIP HOLDING ASA
SMCRT SMARTCRAFT ASA
08/29/21 August 29, 2021 2 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Organic growth is accelerating

Q2 ARR 2% above ABGSC – beat on organic growth Annualized org. growth of 12.5% - on track to reach 20% Cons ‘22e sales up 2-3%, adj. EBITDA up 5-8%

07/29/21 July 29, 2021 4 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - A revaluation story in the making

2% sales beat and adj. EBITDA margin of 14% Raise ’21-‘23e ARR by ~8% mainly due to M&A and FX Reiterate BUY with TP of NOK 70

05/25/21 May 25, 2021 14 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Short-term ramp-up in investments

Sales 2% above consensus Raises sales guidance by ~3% to reflect M&A Cons to lower 2021 EBITDA, but LT est. to remain

05/20/21 May 20, 2021 4 EN
Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Free Trial
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater (Buy, TP: NOK76.00) - Premium segment accelerates

Meltwater continues to grow its Premium client segment, seeing accelerated expansion of the segment’s ARR by USD3.1m in March, implying growth of 18% YOY for Q1?. The latter was slightly above our expectation, and compares to 12% YOY in Q4 2020, in our view clearly showing that the company is progressing according to the plan and trajectory set out in conjunction with its IPO.

04/07/21 April 7, 2021 11 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Accretive M&A lifts revenues by 3.5-5%

Acquires Linkfluence for 2.9x EV/sales (incl. earnout) Upside from cross-selling to new/existing customers Lifts ’21-‘22e revenues by ~3.5-5%

03/16/21 March 16, 2021 4 EN
Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Free Trial
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater (Buy, TP: NOK76.00) - Slightly ahead of schedule

Yesterday after close, Meltwater reported a Q4 top line and adj. EBITDA above our expectations, on a continued shift in business mix towards Premium Clients and the Social media segment, in line with the strategic direction set out with its IPO. We have inched up our top-line and EBITDA forecasts, and raised our target price to NOK76 (75). We reiterate our BUY.

02/26/21 February 26, 2021 14 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Improved confidence in 2021 delivery

Beat on adj. EBITDA, and ‘21 sales guidance up by 1% We raise ’21-‘23e ARR by 1% and EBITDA by 2-4% BUY with new TP of NOK 70 (67)

02/26/21 February 26, 2021 14 EN
Eirik Thune Øritsland ... (+3)
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Jonas Bru Lien
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Adj. EBITDA beat, ’21 sales guidance +1%

Sales and adj. EBITDA above consensus Lifts 2021 revenue guidance by 1% to USD 378-388m Cons to lift ‘21e ARR by 1% and adj. EBITDA by 3-4%

02/25/21 February 25, 2021 4 EN
Aksel Øverland Engebakken ... (+3)
  • Aksel Øverland Engebakken
  • Eirik Thune Øritsland
  • Øystein Elton Lodgaard
PREMIUM
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater - Q4 in-line, sees growth returning in H2’21

Q4 ARR of USD 359m in-line with our estimate Delivering on strategy to upsell to large customers Growth to return from H2’21, M&A discussions ongoing

01/28/21 January 28, 2021 4 EN
Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
Free Trial
MWTR MELTWATER

Meltwater (Buy, TP: NOK75.00) - The next enterprise software wave

As Meltwater’s unique platform provides enterprises with a complete overview of all external information flows affecting their business, we see its ‘outside insight’ filling a gap enabling the next wave in enterprise software. We forecast a return to double-digit growth and expect its stock to re-rate significantly. We initiate coverage with a BUY and NOK75 target price.

01/05/21 January 5, 2021 66 EN
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