Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

SKF AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at SKF AB bought 915,300 shares at between 188.530SEK and 190.087SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Q1 solid vs. low expectations in a tough market

Hexpol (Buy, TP: SEK96.00) - Better than expected

After the weak gross margin in Q4 (on an unfavourable mix) and recent macro turmoil, the pressure was on for Hexpol’s results to improve, and Q1 was somewhat above our expectations and consensus despite continued negative product mix. Management has not (yet) seen raised raw material prices in the US from tariffs, but historically Hexpol has always passed on price increases. Our adj. 2025–2027e EBITA is broadly unchanged, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK96 target price.

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

SKF (Buy, TP: SEK240.00) - Perception change potential

Q1 adj. EBIT was 3% stronger than we and consensus expected (driven by impressive margin resilience), while the outlook and organic growth seem to be tracking in line with our estimates. SKF’s pricing efforts look set to offset negative tariff implications, and its margin strength is undeniable. We have raised our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c4% on average, and our target price to SEK240 (225); we reiterate our BUY.

Admirable work, but market slide extending

Hexpol AB: 1 director

A director at Hexpol AB bought 2,500 shares at 84.900SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Solid bounce back after weak Q4 as promised

Good cost control, EBIT 3% better

SKF (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Resetting expectations

We estimate Q1 sales of SEK24,167m, organic growth of -1.5% YOY and adj. EBIT of SEK3,143m (c1% above consensus). We expect Q2 guidance of “weaker” organic sales (YOY), and have cut our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c15% on average having updated FX and factored in the macro backdrop, which has clearly deteriorated since our previous update in light of the US tariff debacle. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK225 (270) on updated (contracting) peer valuations and our lowered ...

Time to revisit

The unfolding trade war has led us to cut our global 2025–2027e demand and trim our spot price estimates. The negative price effect is partly countered by reduced mortality boosting volumes and lowering costs, leading to net EPS cuts of 11–2%. Given the sector’s solid track record in adapting to past crises and recent share-price declines, we see a significantly improved risk/reward and have a positive stance on the sector. We have upgraded Mowi, Bakkafrost, and Grieg Seafood to BUY (HOLD).

Heads-up for report 25 April

Heads-up for report 25 April

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...