Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

Hexagon (Buy, TP: SEK115.00) - Q1 results were a clearing event

Hexagon’s Q2e outlook was better than feared after its Q1 profit warning. We see an attractive risk/reward following the recent sell-off amid: 1) the organic sales growth and earnings momentum story unfolding with defensive traits (albeit bruised); 2) the ‘NewCo’ spin-off crystallising values; 3) new leadership starting on Monday, which should appeal to a broader investor base; and 4) an undemanding valuation on absolute and relative bases, near a historical trough. We reiterate our BUY but have...

March went wrong, but Q2e looks OK

Stabilising demand in April, share up 3-5%

Volvo Cars (Hold, TP: SEK17.60) - I roll…into the kitchen sink

Volvo Cars pulled the plug on 2025 and 2026 guidance, as returning CEO Håkan Samuelsson cited a “very challenging” environment. Q1 sales, margins, and cash flow missed expectations, with tariffs, weaker demand, and price pressure forcing a pivot to cost-cutting and regionalisation, including a SEK18bn cost and cash savings programme. We have lowered our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c23% on average and our target price to SEK17.6 (18.0). We reiterate our HOLD.

Q1 solid vs. low expectations in a tough market

Hexpol (Buy, TP: SEK96.00) - Better than expected

After the weak gross margin in Q4 (on an unfavourable mix) and recent macro turmoil, the pressure was on for Hexpol’s results to improve, and Q1 was somewhat above our expectations and consensus despite continued negative product mix. Management has not (yet) seen raised raw material prices in the US from tariffs, but historically Hexpol has always passed on price increases. Our adj. 2025–2027e EBITA is broadly unchanged, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK96 target price.

Hexpol AB: 1 director

A director at Hexpol AB bought 2,500 shares at 84.900SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...

Solid bounce back after weak Q4 as promised

Heads-up for report 25 April

Hexpol (Buy, TP: SEK96.00) - Upgraded to BUY

We forecast Q1 sales of SEK5,288m, and adj. EBIT of SEK811m, c5% below consensus. As usual, we do not expect forward-looking commentary from management. We have cut our 2025–2027e adj. EBIT by c8% on average due to FX and slightly negative underlying estimate revisions. However, we see a positive risk/reward (c25% discount to Swedish industrials versus c5% historically), and attractive upside potential to our new, reduced SEK96 (108) target price, prompting us to upgrade to BUY (HOLD).

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2025

Attractive despite uncertainty

More than a scratch

Volvo Cars (Hold, TP: SEK18.00) - Downside risk to consensus

We are 26% below post-Q4 consensus on EBIT before JVs for Q1, as we estimate revenues to decline by 11% organically YOY to SEK87.1bn (4% below consensus) and a gross margin of 18.1% (consensus 18.3%). Retail sales declined 6% YOY in Q1, and wholesale sales are expected to be even lower. We have reduced our 2025–2027e EBIT before JVs by c26–14% due to FX and lower gross margin assumptions and are now 34–63% below consensus. We believe consensus is underestimating the price/mix headwinds and see V...

Q1 was OK but that's ancient history now

US backs off, EU steps up

Organic decline worsened by big FX moves

Elektroimportøren (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - Signs of market improvement

Our Q1 forecasts are slightly below consensus, but with continued improvement YOY on solid revenue growth, gross margin improvement and cost control in both countries. We reiterate our BUY and NOK15 target price as we continue to find the valuation attractive, with signs of improved financial performance and market conditions.

Hexagon (Buy, TP: SEK137.00) - Multifaceted 2025 story unfolding

After recent market volatility, we see upside potential due to: 1) a long-awaited acceleration in organic growth (with defensive traits); 2) earnings momentum translating into YOY adj. EPS growth of 17% in 2025e; 3) the ‘NewCo’ spinoff (c25% of group EBIT) crystallising values; 4) new leadership appealing to a broader international investor base; 5) strong Q4 results that encouraged bulls and de-risked the 2025e case, potentially attracting new investors; and 6) undemanding valuation, in our opi...