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Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Salmon Evolution (Buy, TP: NOK9.90) - First profitable land-based farm...

Salmon Evolution reported Q1 group EBITDA of NOK24m and EBIT of NOK6m, making it the first land-based name to report black numbers. A potential refinancing of phase-1, lower-than-expected payable tax and steady-state EBIT cost guidance of NOK53–57/kg were positive surprises in the report. A final investment decision for phase-2 is expected in Q2, as well as a clarification on other expansion plans. We reiterate our BUY and NOK9.9 target price.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun

Do good and good will come to you

Q1: EBIT positive as good biology pays off amid record prices. Improved comfort on long-term competitive margin advantage. Value proposition playing out; expansion next: BUY, TP NOK 10.

ABGSC Seafood Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Seafood Research
  • Martin Kaland
  • Simon Brun
Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Salmon Evolution (Buy, TP: NOK9.90) - Production progressing as planne...

Following our site visit to the production facility in Indre Harøya on 20 March, we are reassured production is on track. The company is the largest land-based salmon farmer in Norway, with 2,200 tonnes of live weight standing biomass and accumulated harvest of 2,214 tonnes (HOG) in Q4 2023. Invested equity (IE) of NOK2.26bn means the stock is trading at 1.2x IE, below the peer group, which we find unjustified. We reiterate our BUY and NOK9.9 target price.

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

The quality report

Knowing who has the best farming locations, production areas and operations is key to assessing future performance potential. Our extensive asset quality research findings suggest SalMar has the best sites, and the best MAB portfolio, while Mowi has outperformed its benchmark the most and has the most conservative estimates versus our expectations. Grieg Seafood is the most undervalued and Lerøy Seafood has the highest margin rebound potential in our view.

Alexander Aukner
  • Alexander Aukner

Salmon Evolution (Buy, TP: NOK9.90) - Farming EBITDA milestone

Positive Farming EBITDA in Q4 for Salmon Evolution was a milestone in the land-based sector. The company guides for a similar harvest volume QOQ in Q1 (800–1,100 tons; 1,104 tons in Q4) but is hoping for higher realised prices. The Asian venture seems to be dragging on, while more focus is now on US expansion. Management expects a final investment decision (FID) on phase-2 expansion in Norway in Q2. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK9.9 (9).

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