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Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Q2 report overshadowed by lowered targets

Our new adj. EBITDA slightly above ’24e target Higher capex dramatically increases risk of rights issue New targets and capex imply 10x ’24e EV/EBITDA (adj.)

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - New rights issue fears after raised capex

New ’24e adj. EBITDA target 28% below ABGSCe Two paths: less ambitious expansion or raise new equity We expect share to be down >20% on rights issue fears

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - LBG pricing case stronger than ever

Q2 report due on Wednesday, 20 July Concrete LBG price point a tailwind for the case Share back to pre-Alternoil deal levels: BUY

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Major LBG deal with >100% price premium

1.07 TWh LBG deal worth SEK 2.7bn over ’24-’30 Price per GWh >100% above our ’24e ASP Proof of LBG price premium is a big positive

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Waiting to capitalise on rising prices

Q1 results in line with pre-announced numbers Liquid biogas price at 50-100% premium to current ASP 12-7x ’23e-’24e EV/EBITDA, keep BUY, TP of SEK 40

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Q1 as expected, pricing outlook positive

Results no surprise, info on liquid biogas pricing Liquid biogas at 50-100% premium to current ASP 12-8x ’23e-’24e EV/EBITDA on pre-Q1 numbers

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - A difficult ’22, gradually better in ’23e-’24e

A difficult ’22e: lower subsidies and high input costs Will struggle until intake and offtake prices are matched TP down to SEK 40 (50), keep BUY

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Lower Q1 profit announced

EBITDA SEK 4m (ABGSCe 24m) Biogas subsidy pushed back to H2’22e… …and higher input costs

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable Weekly - Theme of the week: Nordi...

Great growth opportunities for Nordic renewable companies Offshore wind and energy storage are key for the transition Solid week for Nordic renewable shares

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable Weekly: Theme of the week - US of...

The New York Bight auction attracted record-high bids Significant increase in price and bidders over time Strong week for Nordic renewable shares

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Looking past near-term uncertainties

Margins under pressure from higher substrate spot prices ’22e margins lowered, only minor revisions to ’23e Keep BUY, TP down to SEK 50 (60) per share

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - A hit to margins despite decent sales

Adj. EBITDA SEK 19m (-34% vs. ABGSCe 28m) -5% negative adj. EBITDA revisions on isolated numbers 13x ’22e EV/EBITDA (adj.) on pre-Q4 numbers

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Theme of the week: Renewable return targets

Comparing Orsted, Equinor and Scatec's return guidance Are the return targets too optimistic? Soft week for Nordic renewable shares

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Olof Cederholm

Scandinavian Biogas - Production volumes set to improve

Q4 report due on 17 February Volumes up for ’21e, margins down slightly Keep BUY, TP of SEK 60 per share

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Theme of the week: Q4e for Swedish Wind dev...

Strong Q4 for OX2 (BUY) – led by 455 MW project sale Arise boosted by electricity prices, Eolus hit by delay Soft week for Nordic renewable shares

Adrian Gilani ... (+5)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Haakon Amundsen
  • John Olaisen
  • Karl Fredrik Schjøtt-Pedersen
  • Olof Cederholm

Powerpoint Sector Report - Renewable Weekly: Theme of the week - Edda ...

We initiated coverage on Edda this week … …a leading offshore wind service vessel company Strong week for Nordic renewable shares

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