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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Adrian Gilani

No drama despite Q1 miss

A miss, but keep in mind Q1 is ~5% of FY EBIT. We cut '24e-'26e adj. EBIT by 3-1%, some risk of more price pressure. Share trading at 13-10x '24e-'25e EV/EBIT.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Adrian Gilani
Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Nordic Waterproofing - Lower newbuild activity leaving a mark

Volume decline and continued high input costs in Q3 EBIT lowered 3% for ’22e-’23e, ’24e mostly unchanged Trading at 10x EV/EBIT on est. ’23e earnings trough

Adrian Gilani
  • Adrian Gilani

Nordic Waterproofing - Volume decline hurts Q3 numbers

EBIT SEK 128m (-8% vs. ABGSCe 140m) Q3 numbers imply negative EBIT revisions of 3% Trading at 9x ’22e EV/EBIT on pre-Q3 estimates

Adrian Gilani ... (+2)
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Renovation stable while newbuild declines

Q3 report due Tuesday, 25 October Price increases driving 7% org. growth in Q3 ’23-‘24e adj. EBIT down 12-9% on lower exp. newbuild

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Better to sell products than to install them

Q2 in line with expectations, estimates intact Strong M&A pipeline and balance sheet 8x EV/EBIT, attractive LT earnings growth potential

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Price increases driving organic growth

Q2 fairly in line with our expectations Estimates intact on isolated numbers 8.6x f12m EV/EBIT, 16% below L5Y avg

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Strong demand continues for now

Q2 report due Tuesday, 19 July High estimate uncertainty going into ‘23e… …but we find several reassuring elements

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Waterproof pricing power

EBIT 113% better than ABGSCe, partly driven by… …impressive pricing power with flat gross margin y-o-y Fair value range of SEK 185-240

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Adj. EBIT 113% above our expectations

19% organic growth vs. ABGSCe at 10% Adj. EBIT 113% better than ABGSCe Adj. EBIT margin up 3 pp y-o-y

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Seasonally small quarter, but strong

Price increases driving org. growth of 10% ‘22e-‘24e adj. EBIT estimates up 2-3% Strong balance sheet allowing for more M&A

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Feedback from ABGSC Investor Day

We hosted NWG’s CEO at ABGSC’s investor day today Negligible exposure towards Russia and Ukraine Price increases continue

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - 2022 guidance better than expected

A mixed bag in Q4’21 …but management guides for a strong ’22 Significant multiple contraction since Oct ’21

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Strong top-line, weaker profitability

Installation Services continues to be weak… …and is expected to be so in the foreseeable future Trading at 13x ‘22e EV/EBIT

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - A solid ending to a strong year

Q4 report due Tuesday 8 February We expect a Q4 similar to Q3 Additional M&A could drive growth

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Solid margins despite headwinds

Adj. EBIT 6% below ABGSCe Demand stable at high levels 14x ‘22e EV/EBITA, 5% ’22-23e lease adj. FCF yield

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Dramatic increases in input prices

Adj. EBIT 6% below ABGSCe Margin compression to remain in Installation Services 15x ‘22e EV/EBITA on pre-report numbers

Karl Bokvist ... (+2)
  • Karl Bokvist
  • Max Bacco

Nordic Waterproofing - Weathering the storm

Q3 report due Tuesday 2 November Estimates intact M&A potential not reflected in valuation at 14x EV/EBITA

Erik Cassel ... (+2)
  • Erik Cassel
  • Karl Bokvist

Nordic Waterproofing - Strong beat despite very tough comps

8% organic growth, 17% adj. EBIT growth We raise ’21-‘23e EBIT by 11-4% Compounder at 12x ‘22e EV/EBITA, and 7% FCF yield

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