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ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
Johannes Grunselius
  • Johannes Grunselius

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Quality, growth and forest values

The main appeal of SCA in our view is its backward-integrated business, with its own forests supplying about 50% of its wood and fibre needs. With the stock priced at a record-high discount to the value of its own forestry business at the same time that SCA offers earnings growth and trades at attractive multiples on our forecasts, we continue to see a compelling investment case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK160 target price.

ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Energy Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • John Olaisen
  • Njål Kleiven
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
Johannes Grunselius
  • Johannes Grunselius

UPM (Buy, TP: EUR36.00) - Solid entry points into quality

Following the solid Q1 report that was supported by the low-cost pulp operations in Uruguay, we have kept our optimistic 2025–2027e earnings, translating into highly attractive valuation multiples largely unchanged. With heavily reduced capex set for the coming years, we also still forecast strong cash flows, leaving the balance sheet overcapitalised. With this backdrop, we believe UPM will continue to pursue buybacks on top of compelling dividends in most feasible scenarios. We reiterate our BU...

ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Henrik Bartnes
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Petter Haugen
ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Pulp & Paper Research
  • Ali Shemmari
  • Martin Melbye
ABGSC Energy Research ... (+6)
  • ABGSC Energy Research
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
  • John Olaisen
  • Njål Kleiven
  • Oliver Dunvold
  • Stian Wibstad
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Bengt Jonassen
Niclas Gehin
  • Niclas Gehin

Rana Gruber (Buy, TP: NOK90.00) - More to come in 2025

We estimate Q1 EBITDA of NOK165m, translating into adj. EPS of NOK3.1 and DPS of NOK1.9, corresponding to a payout ratio of 60%. Our forecast reflects a realised iron ore price of USD99.5/t (excluding freight). We have reduced our 2026–2027e EPS by 6–7% following a cUSD5/t reduction in iron ore futures. We reiterate our BUY and NOK90 target price.

Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Golden Ocean (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withd...

CMB.TECH and Golden Ocean have signed a term sheet for a contemplated stock-for-stock merger at an exchange ratio of 0.95 CMB.TECH shares for each outstanding Golden Ocean share. Completion is scheduled for Q3, and the companies are scheduled to host CMDs on 24 and 29 April to provide further information. As DNB Markets is acting as financial advisor to Golden Ocean, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.

ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Shipping & Transport Research
  • Martin Mauseth
  • Petter Haugen
 PRESS RELEASE

GOGL - Merger Between CMB.Tech and Golden Ocean

GOGL - Merger Between CMB.Tech and Golden Ocean HAMILTON, Bermuda, 22 April, 2025, 10.30 pm CET – Golden Ocean Group Limited (NASDAQ: GOGL & Euronext Oslo Børs: GOGL) (“Golden Ocean”) and CMB.TECH NV (NYSE: CMBT & Euronext Brussels: CMBT) (“CMB.TECH”) are pleased to announce that they have signed a term sheet (the “Term Sheet”) for a contemplated stock-for-stock merger, with CMB.TECH as the surviving entity, based on an exchange ratio of 0.95 shares of CBM.TECH for each share of Golden Ocean (the "Exchange Ratio"), subject to customary adjustments. The Term Sheet has been unanimously appro...

ABGSC Renewable Energy Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Renewable Energy Research
  • Åsne Holsen
  • Daniel Vårdal Haugland
Jørgen Lian
  • Jørgen Lian

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Johannes Grunselius
  • Johannes Grunselius

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Resilient earnings in harsh markets

Given overall deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, combined with worsened FX, we have made significant 15–13% cuts to our 2025–2026e EBITDA. Still, due to the unique backward-integrated business model enabling exceptionally favourable production costs versus most peers, SCA is set to report healthy earnings even in a harsh economic environment. With the stock valued far below our SOTP of SEK240, we see excellent entry points in a unique, quality company. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our...

 PRESS RELEASE

GOGL – Notice of 2025 Annual General Meeting

GOGL – Notice of 2025 Annual General Meeting Golden Ocean Group Limited (the “Company”) announces that its 2025 Annual General Meeting will be held on May 8, 2025. A copy of the Notice of Annual General Meeting and associated information including the Company`s Consolidated Financial Statements on Form 20-F for 2024 can be found on our website at  and in the links below. April 10, 2025 The Board of DirectorsGolden Ocean Group LimitedHamilton, Bermuda This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.   Attachmen...

Simen Mortensen
  • Simen Mortensen

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

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