We expect solid earnings growth in Q4

Cash is still king

Single-digit valuation, double-digit growth

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK450.00) - Flexing its FCF muscle

Loomis’s Q3 results were solid, with still-strong organic growth; the US operation excelled, and Europe and Latin America made greater contributions QOQ. With its strong FCF, Loomis is increasing its financial capacity, even as it executes on its share buyback programme (Q4 mandate SEK200m). We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS slightly, still viewing Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, having the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. We reiterate ...

Solid report, new buybacks to support the share

More to come, BUY on recent weakness

Margin target now within reach

Margin recovery in Europe/LatAm bodes well for H2'24. We are now more confident in >12% margins in H2'24. Reiterate BUY, TP raised to SEK 350 (340).

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - Improving Europe trend

Loomis’s Q2 results were solid, with still-strong organic growth; the US operation excelled, and Europe and Latin America made greater contributions QOQ. The company is increasing its financial capacity, even as it executes on its share buyback programme. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS slightly, still viewing Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, having the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, and its share-buyback ambition of SEK200m renewed ...

Margin improvements in Europe coming through

European margin key to reach targets

Organic growth holding up better than expected, 6% in Q1 is solid. EBITA cut 1-3%, margin shortfall in Europe is key to turn around. Operationally beating Brinks, but share lags significantly; BUY.

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - US strength, Euro weakness

Q1 saw still-strong organic growth, with improving US earnings leverage but still-weak European, and Loomis building further financial capacity, even as it executes on its share buyback programme. We have tweaked our forecasts, still viewing Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, with the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, with its share buyback ambition renewed (SEK200m) for Q2. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Good growth, but margin miss off-set

We expect flat earnings y-o-y in Q1

4% organic growth and 1% EBITA growth in Q1e. Small estimate revisions, strong value support and has lagged peers. 9x EV/EBIT, 10% FCF yield, CMD likely in H2'24: BUY, TP SEK 340.

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - FCF back in good shape

Q4 saw still-strong organic growth, weaker European earnings leverage, and Loomis building further financial capacity. We view Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, with the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, with a 2023 DPS of SEK12.50 being proposed (+4% YOY) and the company renewing its share buybacks (SEK200m) in Q1. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - Capital allocation alternatives

Q3 saw a stronger US operation, but with profitability in Europe still struggling. With Loomis back in acquisition mode, consolidation of Cima SpA offset the negative effect of Europe on our 2024-2025e EPS, which are basically unchanged. We expect greater acquisition activity, redeploying Loomis’ strong financials, to be the reason for not restarting its share buybacks near-term. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - Back in acquisition mode

Q2 did not meet consensus, but we see solid execution with ongoing profitable organic growth, with Loomis back in acquisition mode, redeploying its strong financials. The report led to 1–2% cuts to our 2023–2025e EBITA, with the higher EPS reduction by 2025e largely offset by the benefit from consolidating Cima SpA at completion. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - FCF generation opens possibilities

Q1 saw continued strong and profitable organic growth, improved earnings leverage and robust FCF generation. We view Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, with the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation. With record-low financial gearing at end-Q1, we would expect it to soon renew its share buybacks, in our view the optimal capital allocation tool. We reiterate our BUY and SEK425 target price.

Northern Lights

Loomis (Buy, TP: SEK425.00) - Weak Q4 margin, solid cash flow

Q4 saw still-strong organic growth, weaker earnings leverage affected by timing effects, and the company building further financial capacity. We view Loomis as a well-financed roll-up case, with the resources to drive sector consolidation and shareholder-friendly capital allocation, with a 2022 DPS of SEK12 being proposed (+41% YOY) and the company renewing its share buyback ambitions for Q1 (SEK200m). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK425 (420).

Loomis - Managing macro impressively

16% organic growth in Q3 but we expect growth to slow Margins on the rise lifting adj. EBITA 4-8% in 22e-24e We stick to BUY, 9x 2023e EV/EBIT, TP SEK 360 (340)